Does anyone want to share your thoughts?  I am sitting here watching the debates and it seems to me (an indendent voter) that we Americans may have a Democrat in office in about a year. 

I have heard that perhaps the long term capital gain tax rate will go up.  That will affect second home owners and real estate investors.  Will some of those people sell in 2008 so that they get the current 15% tax rate?Some will be able to do 1031 Tax deferred exchanges and it won't matter to them, but many people want to sell their property without buying another one.  Will it cause them to sell sooner than they might have otherwise? 

How about estate taxes?   They have to be redone in the next couple of years; will they go higher?  Democrats  appear to raise taxes but use the money to help people who are in need, although they get accused of creating bigger government.  Republicans, on the other hand, favor businesses and are seen as making the rich richer.  Whether my quick sketches are actually true or not, I don't know, but how would a Democrat in power, perhaps also with a majority in the House and Senate, affect our ability to make a living? 

I look forward to hearing about the vision you see in your crystal ball! 

 

26 Comments on What will happen to real estate with a Democrat in the White House?

Without necessarily endorsing one party or the other here, how could it be any worse than what we've been going through lately?

01/05/2008 10:50 PM by Wayzata Lakes Realty: Eric Kodner Sells Luxury Homes


Oddly enough before the debates tonight I blogged the "findings" on The 24 earlier today - I'll take heat from some left wingers for this but if a liberal is elected (which I still doubt at this point) we'll have hell to pay. Get ready to create a middle class out of your wallet.

01/05/2008 10:52 PM by Novation Mortgage


Taxes will go up and real estate values will continue to go down.  Did I say that out load!

01/05/2008 10:52 PM by Brian Sharkey South Florida Realtor (All Florida GMAC Real Estate)


I actually didn't intent this to be a post soliciting who might win, just looking at a what-if situation!  I suspect many people will respond that it will affect us negatively in the pocket book, but will it really?  Could we use it positively? 

Eric and Ken, two different sides of the fence here...I guess time will tell.

Brian, I have a friend in Florida who is a Bankruptcy trustee.  She says that in her opinion, Florida has two more years before even hitting bottom!  If that is true, what you say might actually happen there!  But would it be any different with a Republican in the White House? 

01/05/2008 11:00 PM by Summit County, Colorado Realtor l Joanne Hanson (Coldwell Banker Colorado Rockies Real Estate)


Brian - have you not read the OFHEO report? Housing values are only going down in a small minorities of markets. The average resale home price from the OFHEO Index was released last week for the 12 month period ending September 30, 2007, and showed that the average resale home in the United States had increased in value by 1.79 percent. In Georgia, the average home increased in value by 3.54 percent. During the same period, homes in the metro Atlanta area showed an increase of 2.61 percent.

01/05/2008 11:12 PM by Novation Mortgage


Ken, in my area they increased about 12%.  However, I am in a second home market and it is completely different.  My market depends on the rich getting richer and has some very tax savvy homeowners. 

01/05/2008 11:18 PM by Summit County, Colorado Realtor l Joanne Hanson (Coldwell Banker Colorado Rockies Real Estate)


With what looks like a recession coming around the bend, I think the real estate market is going to see a lot of problems know matter who is in charge. But we do know who has led us to this.

01/05/2008 11:47 PM by Christopher Currins (CBC Home Inspections) (CBC Home Inspections)


Jessie Unruh, of California many years ago said ...politicians are interested in three things.  Power, turf, and budget.  If liberals get in, you can almost be sure that they will open up the goverment coffers to the so-called poor and needy, at the expense of us majority tsxpayers to accomplish their need for power, turf, and budget.

01/05/2008 11:52 PM by Jim Dunlap (TopBuyRealEstate.com)


Hi Joanne:  In my opinion, I think a Democrat in the White House will be great for the economy, and great for the country.  The current administration has taken a budget surplus it inherited in 2000 and turned it into a multi-trillion deficit.  Just getting back on the pay as you go program will be a great help.  I think the resulting confidence people will have in their government will stimulate the economy.

01/06/2008 12:24 AM by Fort Worth Real Estate - - - Karen Anne Stone (RE/MAX Trinity)


Interesting that Jim has to use the conservatives' favorite scare word, "liberal", instead of Democrat.

George Bush, a Republican, got narrowly elected by claiming that he was a conservative who would (presumably) balance the budget and be fiscally responsible.  But the Bush budget has created the biggest deficits in history (even without taking the Iraq war into account). 

So much for the Republican claim of fiscal responsibility..

01/06/2008 08:04 AM by Wayzata Lakes Realty: Eric Kodner Sells Luxury Homes


In the long run, regardless of which party wins, things will not change drastically. When all is said and done, both parties gravitate toward middle of the road. The only change that will really occur is Bush will have his mail forwarded to Texas!

01/06/2008 08:20 AM by Gary Waters - Real Estate Agent Viera Suntree (Century 21 Baytree Realty www.moving2brevard.com)


Joanne, No one can tell for sure. For now we can all just presume, but it all comes down when the real person has to perform.

01/06/2008 04:04 PM by Camarillo CA Real Estate Agent/ Mana Tulberg (Beach View Real Estate)


Thank You Eric: A reasoned poster in this thread! Let's see. The last Democrat in the White House balanced the federal budget while trimming down the welfare rolls and created a huge federal surplus. George Bush has destroyed the US economy and the economy is going to get worse before it gets better. "I will call OPEC and tell them to open up their spigots." That was GWB when asked about what he would do if oil prices went up. Well, his phone must have been disconnected, because oil is at $100bbl. Oh, and the "war."

George Bush has expanded government more than any Democrat has ever imagined.

We need a Democrat in office to bring fiscal responsibility into fashion.

Now, as far as real estate goes, it has been the banks and Wall Street that have been irresponsible in their lending practices and there should be no bailout. People should not have been buying homes they could not afford and banks should not have been giving such crazy loans, especially for re-fis.  Our local market is quite strong and I suspect that the general economy will help dictate how housing does this quarter.

01/06/2008 09:15 PM by Scott Smith - Gloucester & Rockport, Massachusetts (Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)


Scott, thanks for taking a stand on what's the Bush administration has really been about.

One commenter above made a crack about "creating a middle class out of your wallet".  Funny, but Donald Trump and Robert Kiyosaki are writing a book which argues that America needs a middle class to survive and we're in danger of losing ours.  Neither Trump nor Kiyosaki are liberal Democrats.  They're just smart enough to realize this:  A governing president and his party can't merely line the pockets of their wealthy constituents and screw everyone else.  There aren't enough "rich" to drive the entire economy by themselves. 

We need a middle class and George Bush has done more than his share to try to destroy it.

01/06/2008 09:41 PM by Wayzata Lakes Realty: Eric Kodner Sells Luxury Homes


Hi Joanne... and Eric and Scott:  How Cool !  Another reasoned response.  The world has turned around 180 degrees.  Democrats are for fiscal responsibility and a balanced budget.  The GOP can no longer say, without looking even more irresponsible that they presently do, that the Democrats are the spend, spend, spend, Big Government party.  They have proven themselves wrong.  Whew !

Joanne, I can only hope, especially after seeing the Republican debates of last night and tonight, that they will continue to shoot themselves in the foot, and free this country from all their lies and sell-outs.

01/07/2008 12:39 AM by Fort Worth Real Estate - - - Karen Anne Stone (RE/MAX Trinity)


I really didn't intend this post to talk about the benefits of one party over another.  My question really was, what will happen to the long term capital gains tax rate (people seem to think it will go up) and perhaps estate taxes?  It seems to have sparked quite a  lively discussion, which is what happens when you bring up politics!

01/07/2008 04:53 PM by Summit County, Colorado Realtor l Joanne Hanson (Coldwell Banker Colorado Rockies Real Estate)


Health care and taxes - throw the baby out with the bathwater as far as I'm concerned. We need some new systems in place. Dare I say "change?"

01/07/2008 04:59 PM by Dena Stevens ~ Ecobroker ~So. Colorado Realtor (Colorado Western Real Estate)


Change, who said change?  Seems to be the catchword these days...I wonder if George II is listening? 

I guess he doesn't need to.

01/07/2008 05:26 PM by Summit County, Colorado Realtor l Joanne Hanson (Coldwell Banker Colorado Rockies Real Estate)


...I wonder if George II is listening?  The last i heard he was in Israel...and will probably do a lot of oversea traveling during the next 10 months.

01/07/2008 06:42 PM by Christopher Currins (CBC Home Inspections) (CBC Home Inspections)


He is a lame duck for sure!  You would think the party might want another Republican elected and pressure him to "change" but it won't happen...

01/07/2008 07:00 PM by Summit County, Colorado Realtor l Joanne Hanson (Coldwell Banker Colorado Rockies Real Estate)


Joanne,

We seem to need a different direction from where we are heading now. If we recall, Democrats left the economy on a pretty decent footing in 2000 and where is it going today? We need people who will actually do something instead of playing politics.

01/12/2008 09:28 PM by Esko Kiuru - Las Vegas NV Mortgage Consultant (Sinifox Financial)


Ain't that the truth!  And I don't care if it is a Democrat or a Republican...I am an independent and vote for the person, not the party.  Thanks Esko!

01/12/2008 09:54 PM by Summit County, Colorado Realtor l Joanne Hanson (Coldwell Banker Colorado Rockies Real Estate)


Joanne --

We've lived through a succession of lousy and mediocre presidents in the past several decades and we'll likely survive the next one.

01/12/2008 10:01 PM by Wayzata Lakes Realty: Eric Kodner Sells Luxury Homes


I think that until we think more about what is good for the community rather than what is good for each of us individually, we will always have issues.  I don't know that a society founded on individual rights is willing to do that. 

01/12/2008 10:53 PM by Summit County, Colorado Realtor l Joanne Hanson (Coldwell Banker Colorado Rockies Real Estate)


The dems tend to be creative and I personally would not have minded nother 8 years with Bill, so, Billary sounds fine to me.

01/13/2008 12:52 PM by The Best Spot Realty/Norris Lake Real Estate/Ooltewah Real E


Billary, that is interesting Gayle!  I bet that would be the case too....

01/13/2008 01:01 PM by Summit County, Colorado Realtor l Joanne Hanson (Coldwell Banker Colorado Rockies Real Estate)


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