I just read the MLS statistics for the Inland Valley Board of Realtors for December and all I can say is that the market continues to follow the downward trends in the Inland Empire of California. This comment has been repeated for a couple months and I cannot say that I identify any change in this trend in the near future!
Statistics and Analysis
Active Listing dropped 0.9% from Dec 06 to Dec 07 with a 22.1% drop from Nov 07 to Dec 07, the year to year drop is the lowest for all of 2007 and the month to month drop is well within historical drops for this month, all of this is good news. The Closed transactions dropped dramatically, 60.2% from Dec 06 to Dec 07 with a 13.0% drop from Nov 07 to Dec 07, these are both very high and is not good news. The ratio of Active Listings to Pending Listings has dropped 22.2% from 06 to 07. No worries though as we should expect this in winter. The big test will come in May of 2008 to see if the sales start to recover or if they will continue to plummet.
Year End Numbers
Active Listings for 2007 have increased by 0.6% from 2006, Pending Listings dropped 31.8% or 22,157, and Sold Listings have dropped 39.6% or 25,031. The ratio of Pending Sales to Closed sales has slid 13.6%, this tells us that fewer pending sales are concluding in a closed sale.
Nothing has changed in my mind, I feel that the real view of where prices are heading can be drawn from the Average Price per Square Foot Data.
Jun 07 down 44.4% from 06, Jul 07 down 32.3% from 06, Aug 07 down 57.5% from 06, Sep 07 down 34.2% from 06, Oct 07 down 11.4% from 06 and Nov 07 down 13.7% from 06. All told the Average Price per Square Foot has dropped an amazing 39.0% from its peak in April 07 of $425 a square foot to $259 a square foot in December 07. Some may say this is skewed by sales of high or low end homes, I say not! These averages are based on sales volumes of $1.8 Billion in April and $943 Million in December, more than enough sales to ensure that there is enough market spread. The December price per square foot increased 142.4% to $1,258 a square foot that tells me that there were many high end sales, expect this number to decease next year.
Here is a sample of some of the stats, derived from market statistics of the Inland Valley Association of Realtors.
Pending Listings Sold Listings
October 06 5,033 4,800
October 07 3,676 2,389
November 06 4,571 4,407
November 07 3,368 2,051
December 06 3,885 4,480
December 07 3,050 1,785
To further illustrate where the market is headed I have included some stats from Foreclosureradar.com about Notice of Defaults (NOD's) and Foreclosure Sales in San Bernardino County. Defaults and Notice of Sales are running strong. For December the number of NOD's are up 76.3% from last year and the NOS's are up a whopping 177.6%.
Notice of Defaults Notice of Sale Cancellation of Sale
August 07 2,176 1,406 221
September 07 2,435 1,894 263
October 07 982 1,169 270
November 07 2,414 1,391 206
It's important to stay in tune with the changes in the market. Call Empire Realty for your next personal real estate consultation at (909) 579-6611, or visit us on the web at Empire Realty.
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