Consider, If You Will.......Vacancy Chains.

Good Evening Dick, That is an interesting thought, I will sure check out the article. It makes a nice break from work tonight.  Have a great evening.

I might not be a writer for Scientific American....and yes, I know I should have italicized that or underlined it but at this point I don't care...but I have often thought about this.  And, if the economy actually "trickled down" some jobs or money, this would work the way it used to work...and it has been so long that I can't even remember when that was. 

But, nevertheless, I WILL click on the link tomorrow and read the article.   Tonight, ...oh, tonight ..I will hopefully dream sweet dreams soon of better times.

Dick As you mention in your article the hermit crab is always look for larger shells as they out grow their old shell. This makes it very easy  for a researcher to track and predict a pattern. The problem I see with humans is that predictability is nearly impossible. You see humans one month would be looking for larger living quarters then the next month then a few months later they be on a diet and looking for something smaller, then they be off the diet and looking for something bigger...  The poor researcher would go crazy looking for a pattern. 

Great article , I had fun reading it as well as the link to SA.

Dick:

Burrowing owls take up residency in ground squirrels burrows.  Snakes and other rodents do the same.  In nature nothing goes unused. 

Dick- I guess it's the natural order of things and while the hermit crabs seemed to have it all worked out, maybe we humans have some catching up to do. 

I certainly hadn't thought about equating vacancy chains to hermit crabs, but it makes perfect sense when you think about it.  In Sacramento, I heard it reported in the last several days that so many homes are becoming rental properties, that we may actually begin to have a glut of rentals, if we haven't already!

Hey Dick, thanks for sharing this interesting analogy.  I've never looked at it this way but it makes total sense that a client sells their home and then moves to a bigger or better home.  Just like a hermit crab. From now on, I will fondly think of my clients as hermit crabs. J/K.

Dick, and it's the smaller shells that are flying off the shelves that are allowing some crabs people to move up to larger shells!

Sharon

Dick ~ your post, and the actual story in the link, were fun to read.  I grew up living next to the ocean in California, and often watched hermit crabs doing their "house hunting."  I remember being a kid and totally worried when I saw a hermit crab walking along with no shell (house) on his back ... and stood quietly watching him until I saw him approach a bigger shell.  The story has some interesting correlations to human house hunters!

So the builder builds a big new house. Someone sells their middle class house to buy it. Someone sells their first time buyer house to buy that one. Some one sells their 2 bed condo to buy that one...

I think I get it

Phil

Dick - This is a wonderful analogy and I've actually thought about this before.  But, it seems like for homes (where there is a financial mortgage), rather than moving up the line to a bigger open shell, the process is a bit the opposite...the smaller house needs to be sold first and then move up so the shell is often occupied (or at least that's how it seems in this market).  Here in our market, it seems that is why many of the homes in the higher tier weren't selling as much...because the buyers currently were strapped down to their mid tier home.  It seems though, that things have shifted a lot over the last year, so that is good.

Thanks Dick, sounds interesting and I'm going to take a look at this in a bit.

Dick -  We can discuss this in greater detail this afternoon over cocktails but after reading both the Boing-Boing article and the Scientific American article - it seems there would be a predictability quotient as to how much new construction is required in any given community.  Right now, our city council is debating a resolution to put limits on the amount of multi-family housing allowed to be built.  At first glance, I wrote it off to short-sighted, anti-growth, narrow minded city council members.  The vacancy chain model, however lends credence to a prudent approach since the number of down-line beneficiaries ends at around 2.5.  It would follow that given our current population and the data available for what the actual need for rental units is - you could narrow down to a fairly precise figure the number of units required to complete the chain.  I can guarantee you that builders don't look at development in this way.  Super interesting!!

Dick this is hysterical, but true. What a great post and congrats to your "Feature", nice to see it actually resonated with the community, looks like even the spamers liked your post:))

Well it does make you look at real estate in a different perspective. As humans we are still doing what comes naturally. We move up when we are ready.

Thanks Dick, great story and now I will be thinking of hermit crabs every time I see someone upgrading their housing.

Dick I did read it and it was very fascinating.  And what was even more fascinating was the researcher's joy in this discovery and I can see why. This made his neary 10 years of research all worthwhile, I could almose image the smile on his face. And yes, I can see the correlation.

I'm thinking our local builders would not endorse this process!!  In their opinion a smart hermit crab should have a custom shell built with all the bells and whistles! 

Hi Honey - I just came back to read this again - it still sounds unlikely.