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Location, location, location - and TIMING.

By
Real Estate Agent with 1st Action Real Estate

We just finished a board retreat trying to plan around our changing real estate market in Southern California. In addition to trying to guide our Association, we are all Realtors and investors ourselves trying to get a handle on where the business is going, how to advise our clients and time our own plans. One member had an interesting analogy which I'll pass along to you.

A guy goes in to a clothing store one day - needs a shirt (well, we know that's the only time guys shop - when they really need something, right?) He see's this great looking shirt that he just knows would make him irresistible and successful. There's a ton of them on the rack in every color imaginable and there's about 30 in his size. Only problem is the shirt costs $85, which is a little beyond his budget.

He happens to stop by the same store a couple weeks later and that whole rack of shirts is now on sale for $35 WOW. He's excited  but he's thinking - 'if they dropped the price that much it's probably because they're not selling too well and they'll drop the price even more. I'll wait and see.'

A couple weeks later he stops back but the shirts are still $35. There's not as many of them - only about 17 or 18 left in his size and some of the colors are gone but still a decent selection. He decides to wait a little longer to get the best deal he can.

Sure enough, when he stops back a couple weeks later the price has been reduced to $29. Problem is, there's only 3 left in his size, two in puce and a fuchsia paisley number. He still needs a shirt so he grabs a plain white one that's two sizes too big so at least he'll have something to wear. It don't look as good and the color's not right but at least he got a bargain.

The moral of this story is - you can wait forever trying to time the market and you may or may not get lucky enough to hit the absolute low point to buy. And even if you do, your selection may be limited, the model you want may be gone, your size is out.

We all know the housing market will turn around in the next 6 - 18 months. Prices have already fallen off significantly and probably won't drop much more in most areas. Interest rates are near historic lows - they might drop a little more but not much. Inventory is at an all time high - there will be more foreclosures hitting the streets for awhile keeping selection good but that will correct itself as well.

If you wait too long, you're going to be out of luck and kicking yourself again. In real estate it's about location, location, location but timing has a lot to do with it too. It's a great time for first time buyers, move-up buyers and investors. Don't miss your opportunity by waiting too long.

Comments(10)

Katie Evans
Keller Williams - Greenville, NC
Nice analogy.  Are the investors the ones with too many shirts hoping to give it right off their back?
Jan 10, 2008 08:36 AM
Steve Hirschler
Keller Williams Big Bear - Big Bear Lake, CA
Big Bear Real Estate
Great Analogy. I hope people will soon realize that the best shirts (houses) sell in any market and the best deals don't always fit right. You either get the best price or the best house... which one do you want?
Jan 10, 2008 08:43 AM
Esko Kiuru
Bethesda, MD

Gene,

That analogy is so true. Timing the real estate market's bottom is impossible. But there are many who try anyway and at the end they will find nothing but crumbs left on the table.

Jan 10, 2008 08:43 AM
Israel Barden
RE/MAX Big Bear Village - Big Bear Lake, CA
Like I tell my clients " A good deal is always a good deal"
Jan 10, 2008 08:47 AM
Gary Woltal
Keller Williams Realty - Flower Mound, TX
Assoc. Broker Realtor SFR Dallas Ft. Worth
Gene, timing the market goes for the housing market like the stock market, pretty tough to pick the peaks and valleys, you are right!
Jan 10, 2008 08:49 AM
Diane McDermott
RealtorĀ®, GRI, Landis e2 Real Estate, LLC - Charlotte, NC
Charlotte NC Real Estate Market
Awesome post! Some buyers focus more on "a deal" than on value, investment potential, the "right fit". Great illustration.
Jan 10, 2008 08:52 AM
Randy "Lazarus" McAtee
Lazarus Realty - Fresno, CA
Owner/Broker, Lazarus Realty, Fresno California

We all know the housing market will turn around in the next 6 - 18 months.

 

we do?

let's hope so.  but I really think we're looking at a 7 to 10 year cycle here. 

Jan 10, 2008 08:54 AM
.... ...
.... - Mauldin, SC
Great post Gene. Sometimes people loose track of the fact that they are going to be living there (or wearing the shirt). Money is great. But, if you get a great deal on the wrong house are you going to be happy?
Jan 10, 2008 08:58 AM
Chris Pollinger
Berman & Pollinger, LLC. - San Diego, CA
Consulting for Luxury Teams and Brokerages
Great analogy - Orange County is seeing the demand trough right now (Dec and Jan).  Rates are great and the investors are back in the game.  Turn around is around the corner. 
Jan 10, 2008 10:34 AM
Gene Wunderlich
1st Action Real Estate - Murrieta, CA
Realtor & Legislative Liaison

Lazarus -

I don't disagree that we are in a longer cycle but I am optimistic that we will start to turn the corner before long. There are still things that could throw that off, like Arnold's current economic problems, but even conservative estimates put us on the mend by 2009. Living in CA you know there have been 500,000 people, on average, move to CA every year for the past 20+ years. Unfortunately we only build enough homes for about 2/3 of them. That is the true housing crises we face. And that's what will propel us back to growth. We can't help ourselves.

Appreciate all your comments and happy to see the optimism from across the country.

Jan 10, 2008 11:05 AM