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Looking at Vacancies for Insights into Housing

By
Services for Real Estate Pros with Armando Montelongo Companies

The bloggers at Trulia Trends recently wanted to look at the number of vacant houses across the country, but found that the standard quarterly statistics from the U.S. Bureau of the Census were simply not adequate.

So they came up with a clever solution that provides some insight: They studied monthly data from the U.S. Postal Service on the number of addresses that were and were not receiving mail on a regular basis.

The USPS typically considers a property vacant 90 days after mail delivery to the address ends.

Vacant housing is a big part of what is referred to as the “shadow inventory” of homes, properties that currently are not on the market, but may be at some point in the future.

The shadow inventory, when it does start to come onto the market, will be a huge source of properties for real estate investors, since it likely will be available at below-market rates.

Here is a look at the data from the Trulia blog:

Comments (16)

Jan Green - Scottsdale, AZ
Value Added Service, 602-620-2699 - Scottsdale, AZ
HomeSmart Elite Group, REALTOR®, EcoBroker, GREEN

I disagree with their findings that Phoenix has fewer construction starts.  Our housing starts are increasing daily and land is purchased by developers.  I'd bet these stats are not current in this department.  I have 2 new-builds under construction now and every time i go visit, the lots are filled with buyers.  I'm tempted to start dropping business cards in the parking lot!  Interesting post. Thanks for sharing!

Aug 06, 2012 06:16 AM
Wallace S. Gibson, CPM
Gibson Management Group, Ltd. - Charlottesville, VA
LandlordWhisperer

I don't go to my DENTIST to do my taxes...why is ANYONE taking Trulia's statistics when they are NOT being provided by LOCAL sources....HELLO!  This FAUX information is a DISservice to our clients and our customers!

Aug 06, 2012 07:02 AM
Armando Montelongo
Armando Montelongo Companies - San Antonio, TX

The data came from local statistics from the US Postal Service. They're about as local as they come.

Aug 06, 2012 07:30 AM
Harry F. D'Elia III
WEDO Real Estate and Beyond, LLC - Phoenix, AZ
Investor , Mentor, GRI, Radio, CIPS, REOs, ABR

Everyone is trying to come up with the exact count of the shadow inventory. Does anybody really care? There are only a few people in America that know the true number. Agree?

Aug 06, 2012 09:10 AM
Anonymous
Joe

90 days - those data tell you what was happening 3 months ago.

They're interesting, but things are changing fast in many markets.  Making decisions based on old data is a good way to get burned.

 

 

 

Aug 06, 2012 09:32 AM
#5
1~Judi Barrett
Integrity Real Estate Services 116 SE AVE N, Idabel, OK 74745 - Idabel, OK
BS Ed, Integrity Real Estate Services -IDABEL OK

Armando, I found the way Trulia went about formulating their list to be fascinating.  Who would have thought of doing that??  I enjoyed this read.

Aug 06, 2012 11:40 AM
ANGEL CALZADILLA
Coral Shores Realty - Fort Lauderdale, FL
Angel Calzadilla

I disagree with that report based on the US Postal service reports. In my opinion is not accurate and not the best source to calculate the number or vacant homes accross the nation and my reasoning is very simple by this following question:

How many homeowners and/or residents have elected not to receive their mail at their property address and instead of that the benefit of a P.O box and not necesarily means that the property in matter is vacant ?

Aug 06, 2012 07:04 PM
Wallace S. Gibson, CPM
Gibson Management Group, Ltd. - Charlottesville, VA
LandlordWhisperer

Just like LAND phone lines, the # of people getting mail at a local residence address is lower each year as people opt for electronic bills, e-mail and FedEx.

I have a mail box on our rural street and get my mail at the local post office in a box that has been in my husband's family for 3 decades....is my house occupied or vacant?

Aug 06, 2012 08:05 PM
Armando Montelongo
Armando Montelongo Companies - San Antonio, TX

Nobody should expect this data - or any data, for that matter - to be 100 percent accurate. There are always exceptions and variations. Take it for what it's worth, a broad look at trends.

 

Aug 06, 2012 10:56 PM
Richie Alan Naggar
people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA
agent & author

Everyone is trying to be a "go to" source...The local agent is all you need to know about...

Aug 06, 2012 11:59 PM
Chris and Dick Dovorany
Homes for Sale in Naples, Bonita Springs and Estero, Florida - Naples, FL
Broker/Associate at Premiere Plus Realty

What a terrific way to find out vacant housing numbers.  I guess Trulia is good for something.  Not much but something.

Aug 07, 2012 02:17 AM
Frank Rubi
Frank Rubi Real Estate, LLC - Metairie, LA
FrankRubiRealEstate.com

Armando, Local information come in all forms. I look and listen and decide for my self in whether to use it. 

Aug 07, 2012 04:15 AM
Armando Montelongo
Armando Montelongo Companies - San Antonio, TX

Good philosophy, Frank.

Aug 07, 2012 04:18 AM
Reuben Fine
Fill-In-The-Blanks PDF Flyer Templates www.TurnKeyFlyers.com - Rossmoor, CA

Interesting stats and method...

BTW, loved watching your home flip show on TV!

Aug 07, 2012 05:30 AM
Neal Bloom
Brokered by eXp Realty LLC - Weston, FL
Realtor CRS-Weston FL Real Estate

Hey Armando,

Long time since our phone interview.....the stats are being accumulated by someone so I assume they can't be that far off from being pretty accurate. I'd be curious why they didn't show Broward County as we have a very high vacancy rate.

Aug 07, 2012 06:22 AM
Charles Stallions Real Estate Services
Charles Stallions Real Estate Services Inc - Gulf Breeze, FL
Buyers Agent 800-309-3414 Pace and Gulf Breeze,Fl.

Data is just data and numbers are what someone wants them to be, it is why we can convince sellers to list based on some number they want to believe.

Aug 07, 2012 02:44 PM