I hate to brag but I've been saying this for months (see links below). the market is not as bad as everyone thinks it is. Now, while it is true that the National Association of Realtors usually paints a pretty picture for all things real estate this article is right on. As the bad loans of years past dry up, as foreclosures stall, what remains? Opportunity!
Why the Housing Market is Not as Bad as You Think.
Home Shopping, Think of the Why's.
Compliments of Longmont Times-Call, by Tony Kindelsire 1/18/08
Real estate economist 'optimistic' about future sales along Front Range
Colorado should fare better than the rest of the nation when it comes to the housing market, according to one economist.
The fallout from defaults in subprime loans continues to make national headlines almost everyday, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
But he advised a group of Longmont real estate agents Wednesday to ignore the national stories and focus on what's happening locally.
"I think we have pretty much hit bottom, and I am more optimistic about the Colorado market than I am the rest of the country," Yun said.
In recent years, Colorado's housing market trends have bucked national patterns, he explained.
While Yun estimates the national median price of single family homes dropped by 2 percent in 2007- the first nationwide price decline since the Great Depression- he said prices have remained virtually flat in the Denver-Boulder area.
This is because Front Range housing prices did not follow the national pattern.
Nationally, prices increased sharply from 2002 to 2005 but showed modest gains in 2006. Locally, however, price increases have risen only slightly since 2000.
Prices in the Boulder area rose 2 percent to 3 percent in the past few years, while some parts of the country were seeing 50 percent annual increases, Yun said.
Existing home sales nationally have retreated to 2002 levels, and Yun said in the last three months sales have stabilized.
Sales in Colorado have declined too, he added, but not as much on average as they did nationwide.
"We don't anticipate any further decline from this point," Yun said.
He called a drop in new-home construction, in Colorado and nationally, a "proper adjustment" given the amount of inventory available.
But while a decline in housing starts helps stabilize the market, he said, a drop in construction becomes a drag on the economy overall.
That's one of the reasons Wall Street has been so volatile recently, he said.
Wall Street is at least partly to blame for the downturn in housing, Yun said.
He pointed out that both Standard & Poor's and Moody's gave Triple-A ratings to many of the subprime loans, as those loans were turned around and sold to investors.
Giving the loans high ratings led to an increase in business for those two companies, he said. For 2008, Yun calls Denver one of his "markets to watch," saying job growth and newcomers to the state will help fuel what he calls a pent-up demand to buy homes.
AMEN Brother! I'll go on record and say the 2008 will be known as the year of the lender/bank consolidations, debt write offs and start of the recovery. 2009 will be known as the year after you should have bought a house in Colorado.
Doug, I have the links to this from the RMN and DP articles on my blog from yesterday if you need them, check it out.
Wasn't it refreshing to hear something worth listening to?