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Now is a great time to buy Real Estate! Or is it?

Hi folks. Yesterday I received an email from my local REALTOR® Association (OSCAR). In it was a plea request, from our new Association President, asking all REALTORS® to place a one liner in all our ads stating "Now is a great time to buy real estate!" Our Association has also started an ad campaign with this same theme. Here is a sample ad.

I guess the reasoning behind this is that if we all aggressively market "Now is a great time to buy real estate!" we can overcome the negative media and change the real estate market in Osceola County. According to our new president, "The most important thing I feel that our Association can do to help our members this year is to help put money in your pockets."

Here's the quote from our President:

"Now is a great time to buy real estate! I am asking for all REALTORS® and Brokers to join us in this campaign. There is so much negative media it would be hard for our Association to be able to battle this on its own. I am asking each and every one of you, that in any ad that you place, please put a one liner that says something about it being a great time to buy real estate, or a statistic about the interest rates, or any education that you feel will help the consumer realize that the market is not so bad. If all of our brokerages and Affiliate members make this a business practice in 2008, I believe that we can change the marketplace in Osceola County."

Now folks, I'm not quite sure how I feel about this. I certainly don't agree that things are as bad as the media portrays but I'm having a hard time getting my head around "Now is a great time to buy real estate!"

I'm a very optimistic person but I'm also a realist. I also know that the consumer is very smart. My success has been achieved by being 100% honest with folks. I believe in giving them the facts and letting them make their own decisions.

Is this request, from our Association, an attempt to manipulate the market? Is it less than truthful? Should we be telling folks "Now is a great time to buy real estate" when in fact, values are still declining? What if I told someone this and they bought based on, "Now is a great time to buy real estate" only to find out three years later, when they need to sell, that their property's value has declined?

Am I over thinking this? Should I just jump on the bandwagon and start running optimistic ads just so I can "put more money in my pocket"?

Why do I feel uncomfortable about this? What am I missing? Please help me out here.

Posted by Bryant Tutas Broker/REALTOR(R) Tutas Towne Realty, Inc on 01/19/2008 02:45 PM

Comments (71)

opinion, marketing, nar

This post has been included in Florida Information Osceola County, FL Information

71 Comments on Now is a great time to buy Real Estate! Or is it?

JAN

2008

Reserved Parking For "The Lovely Wife"...TLW...ROAR!

Blog Boy...

I don't think you're over thinking (I didn't know you could do that :)

Anyway...As you already know this 'suggestion' rubs my fur the wrong way.In my not so humble opinion this is much like spiking the market.

In essence we are being asked to put 'in writing' something that may or may not be true.

I also see a problem as far as the Consumer goes. What might that be you ask..

Well...The Consumer is always suggesting that Realtors manipulate the market.

Is this not a perfect example of that? I mean really...The word "Consorting" comes to mind.

Shhh...Don't tell anyone I said any of that :)

TLW...ROAR!

I love that parking spot.

Me personally .. my professional opinion is it is a great time to buy. Yes prices are probably still going to decline but there are no guarantee as to how much.

Facts we do know ... Prices are low, inventory is huge, negotiability is huge and the interest rates are great.

I take real estate investment over the stock market any day.

Say helloooooooooooo to the Lovely one!

Bryant, the decision to buy a home is a highly personal one, based on objectives, timeline, tolerance of risk, and other factors. There is no one right answer for everyone. Conveying the message broadly to all potential clients that "Now is a great time to buy Real Estate!" is just not prudent, accurate, or honest.

For some people, it is a great time to buy.

For others, it is not a great time.

Everybody's needs are different.

BB - well, NAR is well into the campaign too. Yep, the media distort the market and when one looks locally things are pretty good, in SOME areas. In others, I suspect it will get worse.

Is it a good time to buy? Well, for some folks, in some areas, and for some properties. That blanket statement to me goes too far the other way. For some markets, yep an agent can say that. But many cannot, and it feels deceptive to be putting a spin on a market that is not accurate or to make a general statement as your association is suggesting, uh, no pleading...well, requesting. Better to consult a professional who can provide the data that, combined with a careful look at your personal financial situation and goals, can help you decide IF it is a great time to buy in your area. As TLW says, this sounds a tad bit manipulative.

For some people in my area, it IS a good time to buy. Some should not.

Jeff

I have a problem telling people whether they should buy or not. I freely share stats, etc. with them. I refuse to predict the future. With that said I am planning to buy this year.

It's a good time to buy or sell regarding personal circumstance and preferance. If you're talking (or your board) is talking about "a great deal" then that's a different story. The interest rates came down...and story be told...going to come down more by the end of the month. For Hawaii residents with great credit it is most likely a great time to buy if they are tired of paying these high rents and wanting their own home to invest in. Wait for prices to come down? At what cost...the interest rates to go up later on? Might as well put it into their OWN home. Individual circumstance and preference. Not a nation wide assumption... Nope...no ad for me.

Bryant,

It's a delicate situation. The national media certainly has overplayed how soft the market is, yet this type of advertising appears a little too self-serving. If we want to keep getting referrals from our past customers, we need to be straight with them.

W.W.B.D. - I believe the "great" time to buy is gone. This is a GOOD time to buy, as acknowledged by the NAR. Huge discounts in new construction is probably the best course of action.

Personally I think it is a great time to buy. Brad Andersohn had an interesting post yesterday Has the Market bottomed out I would feel more comfortable advising people to buy on the way down then telling them they missed the boat and prices are increasing again.

Great comments!!! My problem with this strategy is once again we are being portrayed as nothing more than sales people. We are telling folks what we want them to hear in order to manipulate buyers into buying so we can "put more money in our pocket."

Why not tell it like it is? It DEPENDS on the buyers situation and needs whether "it's a great time to buy" or not. Why not stress the importance of a REALTOR(R) in being able to help buyers figure this out? It's a very difficult market right now and a REALTOR(R) is needed to help counsel buyers and sellers on the best way forward. The best way forward may be to NOT buy or sell. REALTORS(R) willing tell their customer/clients this are going a long way towards building trust and lasting relationships. "Keeping more money in my pocket" will take care of itself.

Personally I am sooooo much more than a salesperson just looking to make a buck.

My market has picked up and our prices are great...so I have no problem saying "Buy Now"

If that was not true then I would not say it....No matter who asked me to.

Actually, I told someone yesterday it was a great time to buy in Poinciana, I had to spell it for him. He just resigned as city manager in Saline and competing to list his house. So, they are not sure where they want to go, but Florida is on the list and I shared with them the 6 bedroom house for 249,000. Told them if I could move if I would, so you may be getting a referral.

Ok, now I do believe it is a great time to buy, if a person needs a home, the prices have come down so much. Rates are great. Yea, they could come down more, but who really knows??? Just like we can't tell a buyer that a home will go up, we can't say it will not go down either. You're not responsible for the market EVER. IMO it is a great time to buy but not a good time to sell.

I understand why it rubs you the wrong way. We are not NAR puppets regurgitating what they tell us to say- at least I am not. In many places it is a great time to buy, but it is very case specific.

BB...That THINGY you are feeling is called a conscience. Some people have experienced severe atrophy of the conscience due to lack of use. Good to see that yours is strong and healthy. Follow your gut!! GBU my friend!!

Each individual with the help of their Realtor has to decide if it is the right time for THEM to buy real estate. It may not be the right time if you know you are going to move in two years or you don't have any money saved for a down payment. I'm not going to make a blanket statement that now is a great time to buy real estate and I don't care how much you threaten me to say it. I WON'T!

Missy, Send them on down!!!! It's a GREAT time to buy in Poinciana :)

OK read my comment I left about 4 comments up. It's not so much the statement "Now is a great time to buy real estate" as it is the perception that gives the consumer. Whether it's true or not it sounds like salesperson BS. I truly feel our ads need to harp on the consumer and what we bring to the transaction. "Now is a great time to buy real estate" is a sales pitch. To me it makes us sound like car salesman.

I think Ginger got the issue. We are not puppets. Not sure this is about whether the market is good or not good. Let them run an ad that "now is a good time to buy" the individual agents can decide what they want to say to who and when. We are not puppets.

Oh Man...

You nailed it Blog Boy...

It's does make us sound like car sales "People"...

Used "People" at that :)

TLW...ROAR!

Broker Bryant,

In my posts regarding this matter I tell my readers: "No one will know when is the best time to buy real estate for you but YOU."

Everyone's needs and wants are different, so to put a general ad in your listing that is directed towards all, in my opinion can be construed the same as what the media is doing to real estate.

Hey BB....I stop by from time to time to make sure you are a live and kickin'. :)

Anything the NAR says now doesn't make any difference in the consumer's mind as they have looked like fools for the past couple of years. With an approval rating on par with Congress, there's little room for any downside movement. Let's see....they said the market was going to bottom out and begin another upward movement....when was that? LOL Then, it's the end of '08 and now it's '09 and in six months, it will be '10.

You just keep telling the truth and you'll continue to do just fine. For ANYONE to say it's a great, or even good time to buy in FL is blowing smoke. Patient, careful buyers will know when it's the right time to buy and not based on any slogan by some trade organization. The same people who said it was a great time to buy this time last year, overpaid by how much??...10%, 20%, or more in some markets?

The only thing more laughable than "Buy Now" is "It's different here". After reading the market numbers for some of the markets represented in the comments, who are they trying to convince...clients or themselves?

BB, great job with the blog and I love hearing you tell the truth....something rare within your industry.

Regards,

Stan

In my opinion, this is merely an extention of the NAR theme for the latest $20,000,000 advertising round. They are insistant on touting in radio ads, TV ads and on the Internet, real estate as a great investment.

I love the ad that says "the average home doubles in value in 10 years". TEN YEARS?????? The average home in my area sells every 3 years. Nationwide, the last I heard it was 7.5 years.

This is just amazing. Where prices have come down, they haven't come down enough. Where they haven't come down, they need to.

How much do you think that ad would cost to run. That's a pretty piece of change advertising.

I'm still seeing an affordability gap here. I don't know about your market, prices are so much lower there.

I am seeing an uptick in contacts. But, it is the end of January and this is when a lot of relocating folks are planning their moves.

In California the base price is to high to make investing in rental profitable. The only exception is if you can find a fixer at a "hell of a" discount. In South Central Lops Angeles you have dilapidated properties selling in the low $300's

In most communities you can only ask about $1200 and expect to retain a tenant in the property, as the income level in the community is insufficient to get a more stable rent.

Always is the best time provided the value is in line with your IRR. I don’t thing it is responsible behavior to make blanket statement like “Now is a good time to buy”. Because it all depends on too many factors and you MUST run the numbers to make any sense of the investment.

But I bet you I can find a post at any time across the Internet in any market that make that same claim, “Now is a good time to buy”. When is the best time?

Stan, Good to hear from you my friend. The truth is all I got!! I hope all is well with you and yours. TLW and I moved to Winter Haven FL the first of December. For us it was a GREAT Time to buy, even though we over paid:) We must be getting old. We now live in a Country Club!!! Never in a millions years would I have thought I'd be club guy. We are really loving it though.

Mana, I agree. I think we just need to give folks the truth and let them decide. Buying a house is NOT always about the money. A good REALTOR(R) can figure this out and counsel their buyers properly.

Miriam, I too think being asked to be a puppet is part of my problem. I'm waaaay to much of a rebel to do the status quo.

OK folks.....I can't keep up with all the comments as I am commenting between doing an analysis for a listing tomorrow BUT as always your comments are greatly appreciated.

Bryant, sounds like you have a lot of integrity which will get you lots more in the end then running NAR ads.

I think we've become a little spoiled in presuming that our homes are our personal piggybanks. Instead of saving and being prudent, we've banked on home prices continuing to increase at astronomical levels forever. If that's not the stuff of a fairy tale, I don't know what is.

I think that for some people, this is a good time to purchase. Interest rates are decent for those who can qualify and the inventory levels are quite high. In Michigan, we have had an average equity appreciation of 3-5% over the past decade so when prices swing downward, there are some unique opportunities.

The other part of the Fairy Tale is believing that things will stay like this forever. One thing is certain...change will happen sometime. There are people who will look back at this time as the good old days...believe it or not. :)

Like Monika said our market has picked up and we are seeing multiple offers on CERTAIN price breaks. Under 300K is the price break where most of the homes are selling. Our Holiday inventory is down from where it was in September. Usually in February right after the Super Bowl inventories usually increase again and another look at the market then will indicate how we are going to fare the rest of the year.

BB....you liar! You are a CC kinda guy with those sharp threads (dresses in the video) and smokin' Cubans!...while sitting in the clubhouse raking in those fat commissions.

Yeah, you over paid...you shoulda aked me before buying, but you saved megabucks on the commissions; so you made out. :) I guess I over paid as well, but I'm not your typical home buyer. Just remember, when you decide to sell your McMansion, don't forget to add the 20% celebrity premium to the price. Buying a BB home is like buying Elvis' Cadillac!

When you talk with those idiots at the NAR, ask them to take down, or at least modify that misleading "return on investment" calculator on their web site. It's the running joke around the country and only reinforces an already poor image.

Regards,

Stan

Stan...

You cracked me up with all of that :)

Good to see your tongue planted firmly in your cheek :)

As hard as it is...I must resist the temptation to mouth off about NAR :)

TLW...ROAR!

Stan, Would you believe I bought a FSBO!! Go figure. No commission for me!! Now as for selling my other house, which I haven't done yet, I have thought about marketing it as "Broker Bryant slept here!" Maybe I could get a little gold plaque to stick out side:) My last fat commission was $2,800!!! The average price in Poinciana right now is $160,000 down from $225,000 January 2007. I'm going to need to sell a lot of those suckas this year or TLW may have to get a job. Like that will EVER happen.

I agree with Desiree, now is a good time to buy. In my market I would say now is a very good time to buy. Our office has been busy, busy this week and I expect it will continue as interest rates stay low and our prices are so affordable. I work mostly with buyers and I'm telling them that if they find a home they love, don't ride the pine and wait for the price to decline. It may not be there next week.

I wouldn't just jump on the band wagon to "put more money in your pocket", but for some people it very well might be a great time to buy. It seems to me that "Now is a great time to buy" has become one of those catch phrases that doesn't really hold much power anymore anyway. But I've coined my own slogan for the year and it's not intended to do anything more than help me keep a positive outlook and "put it out there", which is "Real estate is great in 2008". This slogan WILL be true for my business because I'm praying for it.... I think I'll go blog about this =)

Salem Oregon, where I am at, is considered one of the better markets by many standards (not that that is saying a lot). I also think that the request of the association is totally inappropriate. This type of action is a huge issue for me with NAR and the local associations.

I personally would not attach that to any of my advertising. I think it makes the NAR and local associations look like well...I can't think of any polite words to post in here so I shall move on...

Consumers can see through these things. I actually chose not to renew my membership this year, over a multitude of small things like what you were just asked to do. (My MLS let's us chose, it is not forced). There has got to be a better way. I mean I don't see attorneys advertising "there's no time like the present to sue your neighbor."

Realtor associations have done some great things. Maybe they need to hire some more creative advertising team to come up with a more market appropriate slogan. How about "The right time to buy: Talk with your professional Realtor for your local market news." Not catchy, I know...You can see why I am not in advertising...

Around our nation's capitol, it is just squirrelly as all get out. Damned if I know whether or not it's a good time to buy - or sell, for that matter.

I've been taking this approach Bryant: are you looking to buy a home to live in for a while? Are you looking to buy a long term investment property? How is your credit? Do you have money saved up for new homeowner expenses, downpayments and closing costs? If the answer is yes, then now may be the right time to buy because interest rates are phenomenal and there are a lot of homes to choose from.

That is as far as I will go lol

BB:

The media is famous for scaring the average person to death whether it be the subject of weather, the end of the world or now "how horrible real estate is."

I truly feel that what your local association is trying to do is attempt a grassroots effort to combat the negativity that the media is blasting us with.

In my opinion if we don't embrace efforts like this at each of our own levels..... what other ammunition do we have?

You are always one for a positive outlook. Reach deep in your pocket, grab that outlook that you normally have, pull it out and slap it on your head :)

(Whew!! And never have two beers and blog!)

I went back and read the first response by TLW...... we aren't lying or spiking the system but merely telling the honest truth. Rates are at the lowest that they have been in over two years..... so does that not make it "a great time to buy a house?"

Going for beer #3 I think!

BB : Most certainly we should not perpetuate a false perception of the market place. Nor should we be advocates for the Doom and Gloom crowd. The reality is that the market is what the market is.

I have been paying attention to the posts here on AR and there does seem to be a more positive note from many of the hardist hit states. Many of the agents are reporting a return of the buyers that have been gone for quite some time.

So it is up to each and every one of us to assess the strength of our own market. That assessment should also include a snapshot of adjoining areas that effect our area as well. If the adjoining county always comes out of a lull before us and they are now starting to respond, then perhaps it may be time to conclude that the bottom of the plunge is in sight.

However if there is no indication of a slowing or reversal of the plunge then reporting " Its a good Time to Buy " would be in acurate and dishonest for most people. Investors on the other hand who could afford to buy when the bottom has not been quite yet achieved may find it a good time to buy. Especially if your market has taken a significant hit and all appearances would suggest that prices previously obtained will meet or exceed in the coming months ahead.

For me if the market is poor, I feel that no comment is best.

Depends on where you are considering your purchase. Now is a great time to buy real estate if you are planning on a long term investment. Short term, maybe not! It all depends.

It amazes me to continue to read the "it's different here" quotes throughout the industry. No offense to any particular person, but we haven't even come close to the bottom in most markets....not by a long shot. Factor in the weakening economy, along with massive inventory, and it's going to take months and month and months to see the bottom. I'd be surprised if the next couple of years aren't some of the worst in history.

Oh well, somebody has to be right and somebody has to be wrong when it comes to predictions...just glad I don't have to hang my future on being right.

Take care,

Stan

Bryant- Now is a great time to buy in Florida as long as you know to offer lower than the market value today if you are buying real estate as an investment. It is not a great time to buy and flip. It is a great time to buy if you need shelter, do not want to waste your money on rent any longer and want to take advantage of some of the historically lowest interest rates and having such a wonderful inventory to choose from! So I must say, it is a great time to buy for the right person. I think real estate is a long term investment and has and will always do well long term. You may not ever see the 39% increases in one year, but that was out of proportion to reality anyways. The first and foremost reason to buy a home is to have a home, a place to build memories and to have a safe haven from the outside world. That is one of the greatest reasons it is always a great time to buy the American dream. Katerina

JAN

2008

Bryant, Um ... if it's a great time to buy wouldn't consumers buy? Do they need us to deliver a signal like Paul Revere's lantern in the old North Church?

I am continually amazed by the blind faith that funds institutional messages. I believe we have reached a saturation point in the economy. The average American is lugging debt like two 30lb cannonballs strapped to his ankles. On his back is a great (dare I write grave) concern about falling headlong into an impending recession. That leaves cash buyers as folks stepping up and must-sell property owners realistically pricing their homes. Today in my market the people that must buy are purchasing the homes of people who must sell. Rates are still attractive yet the financial system that pumps out liquidity is clearly on "PAUSE." We do not have a crisis of motivation. We have a crisis of confidence coupled with incapacity. People are not buying now simply because they cannot or dare not.

The time to buy a home is when you need to buy.. your mother-in=law announces that she is moving in and you only have 1 bedroom condo... If people thought more about buying a home as a place to live and less about turning it in a year for a 50% profit the market would be in a lot better shape..

BB, I wouldn't put that tag on any ads or material. It's way too broad, and will likely be laughed at by those that understand that we're in a downswing- and lest they forget, they can simply open any paper to have it drummed into their heads that there are REAL problems out there right now. People that need or really want a house are going to go into it knowing that they may be paying more than they would a year from now (or a month from now). To me, it's a condescending tag line, minimizing the grave state of the market right now, and represents (from a real estate "authority") misinformation (carefully general). We don't need to perpetuate the current opinion of many- that Realtors are greedy, and often stupid. This just sort of puts it out there for confirmation. Those who choose to buy, if properly counseled, are not going to be given a sweeping, pollyanna view from us (I hope)- rather, a careful assessment. I wish that I hadn't paid my dues.

I have to add that there are dopes in Long Island pushing the same notion- talk about misinformed. Consumers can sniff bs from a mile away (closer, if it's you guys- did TLW bring the BS bag with you when you moved)?

Good morning. This has turned into an excellent comment thread. Thank you.

I like what Laurie Mindich said about the ad being "condescending". I agree. That is one of the problems I have with it. It treats the consumer as if they are stoopid and can't see for themselves what's going on around them. To me it also falls right into line with "million dollar producer"...."top agent"...."buy now" etc There is nothing in this ad for the consumer. It's all about us and our need to sell them a house.

OK I'm heading out to Church but will be back later.

Bryant, I agree with your questioning this issue. I do believe for the right people there is opportunity and I am carefully writing about it. I do hear and see where we (the industry) are saying it is a GREAT time to buy. I can't say that without some qualifying. I am being very careful to help people think through their decision to by now. I have been working with a client who wants to buy a big 3000 sf or bigger home because of some of the prices she sees. She owns 2 houses currently and cannot sell either for what she would need to recover her investment. I have advised her to meet with her CPA and a loan officer to look at her options. I just can't see her proceeding with the risk factors involved. Just my two cents worth. I agree with you and how you are looking at this market.

If someone told you to do something you didn't agree with, would you do it? Go with your gut and get a good nights sleep.

The question I ask is...what will my sellers think if I go around telling Buyers they can get great....low prices, negotiate a better deal, etc. NOW. Perhaps that is not how all buyers and sellers would interpret the message, but will sellers think I'm going to do the best job for them as their agent or am I just trying to get a buyer a steal of a price on their new home?

If you're going to use the message "NOW is a great time to buy" be sure to base it on the large inventory of homes available, low interest rates, etc. Not the idea consumers can get homes at rock bottom prices, as many of them currently have that misconception.

I have been stating that now is a great time to buy for months now. Interest rates are near rock bottom, inventory is incredibly plentiful, and great deals are everywhere.

And I am putting my money where my mouth is. I have already bought 2 properties since last fall and am trying to buy some more. Granted my purchase prices are so far off the asking price it is ridiculous. The first buy was in College Park - listed at 250K closed at 157K. The second buy was in Pine Hills - listed at 150K closed at 98K.

That is how I like to buy and many sellers don't like my low offers, but buying as an investor either means a fantastic deal or no deal at all. If you ain't embarrassed to make the offer, then you offered too high - my opinion anyway.

My experience in Lake County is more Like RObs, and maybe kind like ANdrews', the people who MUST buy a home are dealing with the people who MUST sell...And we are working with investors on cash for short sales, and making offers on homes that fit out criteria...many offers are not taken, but last week we did three more, and tool 8 more short sale listings....I have to work where there is some activity that pays me, I no longer make excuses for making way below market offers...The laws of supply and demand are in full effect BB, NAR can say what they want...WE have 6 years worth of homes in our area RIGHT NOW, with nearly 7 thousand MORE NEW HOMES being built or already permitted...

Real Estate is local, and here, we are going back to 2004 pricing as we continue to breathe...the longer you wait, the better the prices are getting , at least from an investors standpoint...The only real downside, is that with the declining market, our investments are losing as well......We are only buying below current market , we hope its far enough below to still be ahead of the bottom..wherever that is

Okay how about this?

Or my personal favorite!

Rob, Those are some good buys! There are certainly some deals out there for anyone willing to do their homework. Maybe we should have a contest to see who can write a better ad than "Now is a great time to buy real estate".

Jeanean, You have a good way of approaching it. I'm a counselor not a salesperson. Folks don't like to be sold but they love to be guided.

Jody, Your point about what would your sellers think is very good. I ONLY work with sellers. We have enough problems with buyers low balling everything. It's very frustrating right now to be a listing broker.

Mike, We are definitely slipping back to 2004 prices. But it ain't there yet. Maybe a great time to buy will be later this year or early next year. Who knows?

Very nice Allison!!!!

Too funny. A contest. The Orlando association started a similar campaign about a year ago.

Bryant: I just wrote a commentary for my local newspaper called, "Buying A Home In St. Louis, A Good Investment?" in which I go into the various economic reasons why I feel now is indeed a good time to buy, as long as you're pretty sure that you're going to be in the home for at least five years and are in an economic position to be responsible home owners.

The market here is down, but not as much as in some markets. So, I guess that it comes down to each individual market, but nationwide, the population is continuing to grow and household formations are continuing to increase, so in the long run, I do think that buying a home is a good investment...again, as long as you're going to be in the house for a while.

Bob Mitchell

ValueList Real Estate Services, Inc.

JAN

2008

I don't ever feel comfortable telling someone flat out: "Now is a good time to buy (or sell)" I let the statistics/facts do that for me. I never want to be responsible for someone elses actions. I will assist them in the direction that they want to go, so long as they always know that it is their decision, and they are comfortable with it.

I do have a suggestion for people that are buying in this market in particular: Buy to LIVE in your home. If you are buying for an investment and expect to sell in a year for a profit...think twice. For investment...make sure your numbers 'pencil out'.

BB, as usual, I love ya for speaking the truth. The thing that bothers me most about this OSCAR request is that it basically throws buyers under the bus. Are Realtors who are buyers' agents supposed to also blindly run ads that "now is a great time to buy real estate"? It seems to me that a buyer's agent (which you are not, of course) should be working for the buyer's best interests. Or is a buyer's agent's first responsibility to his/her pocketbook? If so, why do they call them "buyer's agents"? Actually, the whole compensation method for buyer's agents is messed up, IMHO; the buyer should be the one paying them, then there wouldn't be such a conflict of interest. Sorry for going off on a tangent!

John S, Thanks for stopping by. I agree completely with your comment. I feel this ad campaign once again diminishes what we as REALTORS(R) really do. It's nothing more than a "sales pitch" and builds no value whatsoever. I see it as demeaning to REALTORS(R) and the consumer alike. We can certainly do better.

Heather, And that is exactly what we should be doing. Folks need to purchase a home not an investment. While real estate is a good investment over time it shouldn't be bought with the intent to get rich quick. Find a home you like, buy it and stay put for awhile. In my area it seems folks move in about 2 years. That's just not enough time to expect a profit on your home. It's an unrealistic expectation and is setting them up for failure. If you expect to move in 2 years then rent and save your money. That's what a buyers agent should be telling their customer/clients.

Bob, You should give us a link to that article. I'd like to read it.

I read on Earlybird from FAR that FAR just started a new website on www.floridarealtors.org that now is a good time to buy. Maybe if we all say it enough, we can brainwash people into believing it. LOL

Hey Rob, I saw that this morning as well. Hey we are already accused of manipulating the market maybe we just need to go ahead and do it. I for one will just continue to sell my services. It seems to me houses take care of selling themselves!

Blog Boy...

"Houses Sell Themselves"...

Now there's a novel marketing idea :)

TLW...ROAR!

JAN

2008

BB, Personally I would have a hard time regurgitating those REALTOR® Association "Talking Points." In fact the whole indoctrination approach makes me cringe. Where did the get their crystal ball???

Our market here in NC has not seen anywhere near the fall of other areas. The experts forecast is good for our local economy. Whether we have reached a bottom here or not is still in question. I have seen blogs posted by agents in my area spouting the same "great time to buy spiel"... I refuse... It may be a great time to buy, we just won't know it until it's over.

Ginger

JAN

2008

My humble opinion - it is a great time to buy! My advice - advertise your truth! I personally feel that with buyers choices at unprecedented levels and rates at a four year low it is a great time to buy. Consider this - wait another year to buy a $300,000 home. If rates go back up to 6.5% (1% increase) and values depreciate another 10% it's a wash! Same total cost for the house and you are one year closer to paying it off if you buy it now.

JAN

2008

Of course it's always a good time to buy, just look at these headlines.

60 Minutes: House of Cards

http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/i_video/main500251.shtml?id=3756665n

Pain goes through the roof

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreclosures23jan23,1,6863107.story?ctrack=4&cset=true

Housing prices to free fall in 2008 - Merrill

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/23/real_estate/merrill_forecast/index.htm?postversion=2008012317

Ryland's CEO sees no end to the slump

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ryland25jan25,1,3859695.story?ctrack=6&cset=true

Bryant,

Thanks for displaying a beacon of conscience in a turbulent market. Please know that your honesty is what people are paying you for. Buyers/Sellers user Realtors (R) because they need advice from someone they can trust. For most people, buying a hom is the most significant expenditure that they will make in their lifetime. The idea that their Realtor(R) would have "money in their pocket" at that time, versus the well-being of their client is appalling. In all honesty, your profession is due a massive shake-up, and when it is all said and done, those that have had integrity will leave with their reputation intact and will not have to compete with all the greedy johnny-come-latelys for listings.

Again, thanks for the honesty.

JAN

2008

As someone who is not part of the industry, I can tell you that I would NEVER use an agent who parroted that kind of garbage either in an ad or in person. Really, it would be equivalent to you saying "I am either an idiot or a con artist, and I'm hoping you are dumb enough to believe this transparent propaganda. Please hire me."

If you have built your business on honesty and trust, now is not the time to abandon that policy. The era of the Huckster Realtor is coming to a crashing halt. In a few years, with any luck, the only real estate agents left will be those who have distanced themselves from the NAR and its self-serving hype, and who have earned the trust of their customers.

Mr. Tutas - I applaud and appreciate your integrity.

Stand by for something less pleasant for others:

Regrettably, far too many agents are blind to the circumstances around them. A famous quote says "It's hard to get a man to understand something when his job depends on him not understanding it".

This is the current case with RE. QUIT CALLING BOTTOMS in the market. You are destroying your credibility as professionals. What if you are wrong? So you get the sale, you will be thought of as a swindler forever.

I am a high 700's FICO no-debt, non-contingent buyer with cash in the bank. And every time at an open house when some agent tries to tell me it's a great time to buy, I feel insulted.

As if most agents would ever tell you that it is a bad time. I've met a few, but not many.

I DO PLAN TO BUY. I am not waiting for the bottom. But I am sick of these agents insulting my intelligence with their fast-talking sales hype.

I know there are good realtors out there. I am working with one. But the rest of you better get straight with the facts and quit blaming the media. Most of the gullible buyers are locked into an underwater house.

Now, you have the people like me. We didn't get in this position of power by believing sound-bite advice.

I sincerely apologize to the conscientious and competent agents who truly have their client's interests as a priority. But the rest? Your world is changing, and you need to realize it fast.

Good morning. It looks like the consumers have arrived on this post. THANK YOU for your opinions. I hope my fellow REALTORS(R) read these comments and take them to heart. Dishing out propaganda is demeaning and harms us all. The consumer is very smart and wants nothing more than the truth. Give them the facts and let them decide if it's a"great time to buy" or not.

By the time the housing market bottoms out, Realtors would have a worse reputation than used car salesmen. Most likely they will end up nearly extinct just like travel agents, with websites doing the job of bringing buyer and seller together. Only a few responsible ones like the blogger here will survive for specialty transactions.

Several realtors above are making foolhardy statements that it's a good time to buy because interest rates are now low. If they knew basic math, they would realize that low interests rates are irrelevant when prices are too high, and salaries are stagnating. The primary issue is affordability. At current levels, prices have to decline by 30% or more, and salaries rise, adjusted for inflation, to get back to a healthy market.

Instead the country is headed to a major recession, the Federal Reserve is sacrificing the dollar to save Wall Street, and Joe Sixpack and Sally Soccermom will have a hard time at the grocery counter, let alone ponying up 6% or buying granite countertops.

They'll simply rent, and that would be the smart choice, because in most cases they would pay less than half the cost of "owning", which in reality is renting money to buy a house.

JAN

2008

Wow, the Realtors who rationalize and BS about the market picking up and about prices being low really illustrate how corrupt the so-called profession has become.

Prices are low after tripling and then dropping 15%? Give me a break. When it's possible to cash flow a property, it will be a good time to buy, and until then, real estate is a POOR INVESTMENT.

The NAR is still actively running ads talking about the great returns on real estate investment - any Realtor who tells a client to buy and to expect anything other than a decline in value at this point is a deceptive piece of scum. And the rest of you, when you support the NAR, and when you hem and haw and rationalize about how it's really not that bad, or that you don't know, rather than coming right out and admitting the truth, you help support the image of Realtors as less honest than used car salesmen.

To the consumers bashing Realtors: More specifically-

"realtors above are making foolhardy statements that it's a good time to buy because interest rates are now low . . . If they knew basic math, they would realize that low interests rates are irrelevant . . ."

"Realtors who rationalize and BS about the market picking up and about prices being low"

(Please read their entire posts above for full context)

I posted a comment on 1/25 and stand firm on my opinion. I presented fact above, the very basic of basic math. I will explain the math below. Is it fair to accuse someone of being foolhardy or BS when you don't know their values or their professional approach as a real estate consultant?

If a Realtor stated it was a good time to buy three years ago was he or she wrong? The market was appreciating yet you are better off buying now than three years ago.

Back to the math. Interests rate are just as relevant as home prices. In the late 70s and early 80s home prices became "too affordable". Our banking system and the Federal Reserve (which is neither Federal nor a reserve) have more control of affordability than you might think. What happens when home prices fall to the point that local rental rates equal a mortgage payment on a decent home? The market begins to turn around. What happens if prices continue to fall - the banking system takes advantage of the consumer by raising interest rates. Interest rates rose to as high as 19% if you had good credit in the early 80s.

Here's the "basic math". The table below is designed to show you how high the rate would have to increase if a home depreciated 10% in a given time period to keep the total pament approximately the same. Note that for fun I use 19% from the 80s in the last column and show you how low the house would have to drop to, again, keep the same payment.

Depreciation		10%	10%	10%	10%	10%
Interest Rate	5.500%	6.750%	8.000%	9.375%	10.750%	19.000%
House Value	$300,000	$270,000	$243,000	$218,700	$196,830	$122,000
30 Yr fixed payment	$1,703	$1,751	$1,783	$1,819	$1,837	$1,938
Tax & Ins estimate	$400	$360	$324	$292	$262	$163
Total Payment	$2,103	$2,111	$2,107	$2,111	$2,100	$2,101

I sincerely doubt that rates ever be that high again. But if a consumer believes that rates are irrelavent then then they are not looking at the entire picture.

Please do not make assumptions about Realtors without getting to know them first. There are many bad examples in almost any profession. There are also many good examples. Find one that helps you clarify your values so make good decisions. Find someone who is informative but not a salesman. The good one's are consultative in their approach - we are not all in sales.

Is it a good time to buy?

I can you show you dozens of properties with positive cash flow.

Your monthly payment won't go up and you can own a nice home.

You have thousands of properties to choose from.

Your interest rate will be based on some of the lowest rates in history.

Is it the best time to buy? That's up to you. No one can predict what the markets will do (interest rates and home values). Realtors aren't implying that the market has turned and neither is NAR. . . but I can almost guarantee that real estate is a great long-term investment and it's a great way to live (as opposed to renting). The choice is always yours - we give you more credit than you think.

JAN

2008

Living in Florida myself, it may or may not be a good time to buy. If I said that, I would also have to add another one-liner to say "Now is a really bad time to sell!"

Norm, Graet comment full of good info. That's the kind of service that REALTORS(R) provide and that is what NAR needs to be advertising. The consumers are pissed because we keep shoving the "It's a great time to buy real estate" down their throats. It doesn't matter if it's a true statement or not it's condescending advertising.

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