A new survey of 113 real estate economists, experts, and investment strategists shows a growing confidence in the long-term prospects of home prices in the real estate market. Added to the most recent Case-Shiller Home Price Index, showing home prices up 1.2 percent nationally compared to one year ago, the gradual appreciation of real estate prices is looking more and more likely.
The study was put on by Pulsenomics and reported by Inman News this week. These same economic experts had forecast flat or slightly decreased prices over the past year, but have shown increasingly bullish attitudes on home prices as more market statistics support that position.
The economists' current forecasts (these are cumulative increases over the years, not yearly increases):
2012: 2.3 percent increase
2013: 4.7 percent increase
2014: 8 percent increase
2015: 11.4 percent increase
2016: 15.2 percent increase
From the Inman article:
This quarter's survey results show optimism has increased among the participants, who in the second quarter had predicted a 0.4 percent dip in home prices this year, followed by modest increases starting in 2013 and through 2016.
Economists now forecast home prices will rise 2.3 percent in 2012 from fourth-quarter 2011, and see further cumulative rises of 4.7 percent in 2013, 8 percent in 2014, 11.4 percent in 2015, and 15.2 percent in 2016.
That's an expected annual growth rate of 2.9 percent between 2012 and 2016, slightly under the 3.6 percent annual growth rate experienced in the prebubble years between 1987 and 1999.
The most pessimistic quartile of survey respondents expect home prices to rise 0.3 percent this year; the most optimistic, 4.4 percent.
Data Source: NWMLS - The Northwest Multiple Listing Service did not compile or publish this information.