"We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and if I am wrong somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosperous. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises.  I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started.  And an enormous debt to boot."

"We want to see private business expand.  We believe that one of the most important ways of achieving these ends at this time is to continue progress toward a balance of the federal budget."

Henry Morgenthau
United States Treasury Secretary
1934-1945

In the early 30s FDR took Herbert Hoover's "New Deal" spending plans and tripled and quadrupled down on them.  Hoover's very Keynesian spending plan was embraced by FDR, only creating a couple of new agencies on top of what Hoover had there.

What ended the depression was when people finally got to work turning plowshares into weapons.  Many left to fight and many stayed to work.  And private business did expand.

And it is said by many economists today that FDR took a recession and turned it into a full-blown depression.  Some economic historians do not have the depression ending officially until 1948, after a brief and slight recession at the end of WWII.

AS I LEARNED MY FIRST DAY OF WORLD HISTORY CLASS IN COLLEGE, WE LEARN FROM HISTORY THAT WE DON'T LEARN FROM HISTORY.

Economics books published this 1934 cartoon, which I first saw while studying economics in college.  I didn't get it then.  I do now.

So here we are again.  Nearing the end of a presidential election campaign we have two philosophies.  One is not addressing issues, saying "give me more time."  The other is not addressing issues, saying "I have done it before, I can do it again."

History says the plea of the former is ridiculousness.  More of the same does not RECOMMEND re-election.  The latter has not garnered enough trust.  He does, however, exude confidence and preparation, and when people hear him they have been developing more and more trust in that.  Both sides of the voting electorate desire "hope and change," and both will get the change part.  But hope?  That is being engendered by only one candidate.

WE HAVE SERIOUS ISSUES THAT EXISTED AND/OR HAVE BEEN MADE WORSE IN THE LAST FOUR YEARS.  BUT I DON'T SEE ANY PLANS TO ADDRESS THEM.  THESE ARE ISSUES THAT MUST BE ADDRESSED!  THEY MUST BE HIT HEAD ON.  MORE OF THE SAME WILL NOT WORK!  WE NEED TO CHANGE NOW OR WHAT MADE THIS COUNTRY STRONG AND GREAT WILL EVAPORATE.  HERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT MUST, MUST, MUST BE TACKLED:

  • GDP growth barely moving at 1.3%.  During the Depression such growth was 8-9%.  What's the plan?
  • The US credit rating was reduced for the first time in history.  There are some rating agencies considering doing it again!  What's the plan?
  • Even the "mainstream" news media recognizes that 16% of the population, some 49.1 million people, are in poverty!  That's the most in history.  What's the plan?
  • Some 47 million people are using food stamps.  Again, the most in history.  What's the plan?
  • Unemployment is said to be 8.1%.  That is statistical poop.  If you include those who truly aren't working, those who have given up, and those very UNDER employed that number more than doubles.  I read where between the Truman years and 2009 the economy has only had 39 months of unemployment over 8%.  Even using the statistical poop numbers we are now experiencing 43 consecutive months of unemployment over 8%!!  What's the plan?
  • Almost 50% of the American consumer budget is food and energy.  Yet these two criteria are NOT included in the national inflation statistic.  Inflation is said to be "in check."  What?  I buy gasoline and meat.  Inflation is not in check.  What's the plan?
  • We have unimaginable debt!  It is not "in check!!"  The deficit and national debt have exploded in four years!  The mushroom cloud is still growing.  Such debt is truly unsustainable, especially as 10,000 Baby Boomers exit the work force every day.  What's the plan?
  • The "average" family's annual income is down 4.7% (about $5K) in the last four years.  What's the plan?
  • Personal income and national income, as macroeconomic statistics, are down in the last four years relative to population growth (according to PBS!).  What's the plan?
  • Huge tax increases are coming in 2013.  They are already in the works.  What?!  What's the plan? 
  • How about energy production?  How are we doing?  And don't count North Dakota, because that is PRIVATE ENTERPRISE at work!  The gubment has no role there.  How's oil and coal production going?  Structural changes have been made to those industries, and that is significant as there is no substitute, no matter what the regime pretends.  What's the plan?
  • The Middle East is in flames.  Our embassies have never been attacked like this, and in US history only 6 ambassadors have been killed intentionally.  The "mainstream" news media hardly mentions this!  What's the plan?

Could I go on?  I guess I could!  Student loans, housing, personal bankruptcy, trade - gee, what's going gangbusters?

WE HAVE BEEN WARNED, AND KNOW, THAT WHAT IS CALLED A "FINANCIAL CLIFF" IS COMING.  AND IT IS COMING!  THIS HAS BEEN CALLED "THE MOST PREDICTABLE ECONOMIC CRISIS IN HISTORY," BY MANY PEOPLE!

WHAT'S THE PLAN?  WHERE'S THE LEADERSHIP?  WHAT'S THE PLAN?  WHERE'S THE LEADERSHIP?

Leaders rarely, and that is really true, RARELY, have so much information in advance of a crisis.  CRISES are usually not predicted, OR EVEN PREDICTABLE! 

A TRUE LEADER HITS THE PROBLEM HEAD ON.  IF A LEADER HAS INFORMATION IN ADVANCE OF A CRISIS, IMMEDIATE EFFORTS ARE EMPLOYED, AND LEADERS SPRING INTO ACTION, TO DEAL WITH AND/OR MINIMIZE THE CRISIS.

Don't tell me what you are going to do.  That is useless.  Should we go over unmet promises?

I WANT TO HEAR HOW, HOW, HOW YOU INTEND TO HANDLE THESE PROBLEMS!!  THE HOW IS WHAT COUNTS.


 

 

Jay Markanich Real Estate Inspections, LLC  

Based in Bristow, serving all of Northern Virginia

www.jaymarinspect.com


 
Post is included in group: Celebrating Free Enterprise
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33 Comments on Jay's Tuesday Free Enterprise Quote - 2 October 2012

20 Most Recent Comments Displayed Show All

OCT
02
977,390 Points 352 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

To answer your last first, Karl, foist a "health" care plan that is so unpopular people HATE it, and do it without the consent of Congress!  One half, a totally partisan half, is not the "consent" of Congress.  And the plan IS socialist.  It's 20% of the private sector all by itself!  BS you say?  Please Karl, please.

The gubment spending during the depression toward putting people BACK TO WORK did not happen until when Karl?  About 1940 or so, maybe middle 1941?  And when did the depression begin?  Morgenthau was talking about gubment spending before WWII!  That's when the quote is taken, before WWII.

There is no momentum Karl, anywhere.  A slight increase in anything from the very historical bottom is not much to tout.

That 1.3% figure for GDP there is very generous.  That is the latest QUARTERLY result, which, as you know, will be revised downward, they almost all are.  The GDP growth rate for the last four years is what?  Be honest now.

Notice I did not lay blame in this post.  I mention only what is.  You did not address the VERY substantive issues I brought up here.  These are reeeeeeaaaaal problems, Karl, not smoke and mirror problems.  What's the plan?  I don't even see a freaking suggestion box!

Do you see all this as leadership?  You know what?  As partisan as you are, you do not see leadership.

I do like it when you stop by though.
5:51am • #14
178,333 Points 2 Featured Posts

Jay, we certainly are at a crossroads. The responsibility falls on the 'people' and I'm not sure the people want a change. There are more people on the government dole NOW than at any other time in history. The people have bought into FDR's New Deal where the government cares for you. Now everyone has a right BUT no one has a responsibility is the attitude. With that, until the culture changes nothing will change in who we elect.
6:02am • #15
330,355 Points 5 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp

First Obama ran on, and was elected, saying he would reform health-care. Second, the provisions within the ACA are VERY popular, outside of one - the individual mandate...which was devised by The Heritage Foundation and supported by Republicans before Obama decided to utilize the very same idea.

And I agree. government spending on WWII ended the Great Depression.
6:04am • #16
405,185 Points 15 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Called Shot Master

Good morning Jay. Neither has produced an actual plan to fix America. When things like "like-ability" enter into a campaign it scares me to death. If mudslinging were the answer both would be on the right track. Not sure we can take four more years of the change we have seen. From better to worse wasn't the direction I was hoping we would go but I do know going against congress and the American public to push through health care reform is NOT representing the people. We need to get beyond the "we vs them" mentality and work together to come up with a viable fix. If you were to do a Government inspection I would love to see the report. lol
8:39am • #17
390,099 Points Outside Blog

So, all we need to do is start WWIII and the recession/depression is over. Brilliant Karl! You leave out the fact that a large part of the population became 'employed' as soldiers and then a part of that population was killed. I guess a war wouldn't be necessary a few concentration/death camps like Hitler used would work.

The real numbers show we are in another recession and possibly a depression, but you won't hear that from the MSM. The employment numbers are revised down every month. Job growth is not keeping pace with population growth, etc.

I will vote for the candidate that believes in the constitution the way it is written. Whose wife has been proud of her country her whole life (bumps, bruises, good and bad), not just when her husband wins.

I will vote for the candidate that has had a real job and run and financed small and large businesses.

I will vote for just about anyone that the MSM slams. That tells me they are not a liberal. And yes, I believe, liberalism taken to its current level is anti-American.

 
9:13am • #18
977,390 Points 352 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Doug - leadership leads culture.  For good or for bad.

Karl - if you call something nobody understands "reform," have a nice day.  I don't know what the ACA is and would love to see how Heritage inspired the mandate.

Actually, full employment ended the depression, and a lot of economists think not until about 1948.

Still, where are the fine plans and new ideas to butt heads with or handle these problems?  I don't see them.  We are to vote for what exactly?  Exactly what are you voting for?

What's the plan?

Randy - Reagan had the WR Grace Corporation audit gubment and they came up with 2,478 ways to improve efficiencies and reduce waste.

Than - when the Russians complained about something Reagan wanted to do, I knew it was a good idea!  We probably are in a recession now, but won't know for a bunch of more months as to when it began.  It will be blamed on Romney.
12:20pm • #19
390,099 Points Outside Blog

Karl's post was the first I have heard of Big Government saving the US from the Great Depression. I have always heard and been taught that it was the war that solved the GD. Nothing to do with any of the Government social programs, but plenty to do with Government purchases.

Anyway, I guess this is a new talking point for the Dems. I had a lunch meeting and one of the men there started blathering about how Big Government saved the US from the GD. I guess Karl and this person are reading the same talking points.
1:50pm • #20
977,390 Points 352 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Than - what happened is the companies that were producing war armaments went back to producing their plowshares - the auto industry began producing cars, and new huge industries of avionics and consumer electronics exploded.  Pent up consumer demand fueled good and service production, housing and the subsequent baby boom produced more consumers.

Interestingly, there was a severe recession for most of 1945 with GDP declining 12.7% and another in 1949 which got Truman thrown out of office (he implimented his "Fair Deal") and Republicans got elected to Congress for the first time in decades.  Unemployment in 1949 hit 7.9%!  It was a very brief recession.

The Depression ended because of what I said above in comment 19, full employment.  In the post I called that "turning plowshares into weapons," and then later turning weapons into plowshares.

Then Johnson gave us guns and butter again in the 60s.
2:20pm • #21
330,355 Points 5 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp

OK Than- I know this is not a difficult concept to grasp: Huge amounts of government spending on the war ended the depression.
4:45pm • #22
977,390 Points 352 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Full employment.
4:52pm • #23
977,390 Points 352 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

The huge spending started in the early 30s.  It led to a severe recession (inside of the depression!) in 1937 as they tried to balance the budget with fiscal cuts, money supply restrictions and credit crushing.  If gubment spending ended the depression it would have ended much earlier.

It is generally accepted now among economists that FDR took a recession and BECAUSE of the unbridled spending turned it into a severe depression.

Google it.  I don't have to - that was taught to me in my macro econ and money and banking books in the 70s.
4:55pm • #24
158,040 Points 2 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Jay - Great blog. I agree with you 100%. The only one who can answer all your questions is Ron Paul. Just take a subject and look into Ron Paul's thoughts. He actually gives answers as he has a firm understanding on the role of government, economics, monetary policy and foreign policy.

Karl - Government spending did not resolve the depression. There is something called the broken window fallacy. Think logically here for a second. If government spending is good for the economy, why not just print money and give it to every tax payer? Why not just have the government pay people to dig holes and fill them up again? Jay is correct, the ability to produce domestic products brought about growth.
10:13pm • #25
OCT
03
977,390 Points 352 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Thanks Satar.  I didn't say that about the depression Satar.  That's in every econ history text book, at least the ones that I have read.  Karl is spouting template and party nonsense.  It is specious. He didn't read the Secretary's quote!

People don't realize, approximately 60% of the US GDP was spent just on developing the bomb!

As to Paul, I am not an "anything goes" guy.  And I think the Mideast is going to play a significant role in our near futures and I don't see anything pre-empting or getting ready for it.  Paul waves his hands demonstrating his distaste for war, but it really says that he has his head in the sand as regards world events and our ability to defend ourselves.
3:53am • #26
390,099 Points Outside Blog

Karl: I am trying to type slow for you, but I am afraid it won't do any good.

During Great Depression: Government spending = Social programs

WWII: Government spending = PURCHASING of goods and service (Thus demand increased, goods and services were used UP and more goods and services were needed vs communist China that has built entire modern cities that are vacant, i.e. the was no demand.)

During GD: Massive unemployment

WWII: Massive labor shortage (All the men being drafted. Kinda hammered the unemployment %)

During WWII: Government contracts were bid out and massive innovation took place. AND the public sector took the risks of developing new technology. Yes, there were some grants and things but nothing like today. If a company invested in a bad idea or failed, Uncle Sam didn't come along and say: "Good try Old Chap, here's some money so you can continue on your failing way."

 

Compare to now:

Government spending = Massive social programs (In other words, the government is not employing people. The government is just spending trillions of dollars to keep people in the same place: welfare, food stamps, unions, failing car companies.)

GS = Picking winners and loser. Although the Obama's track record shows that the winners they pick are really losers. (All the green energy companies, bailed out car companies, certain banks, but I guess they are winners for Obama donors, so that is all that matters.)

I could go on and on, but all Karl sees is that the government spent money. He refuses to look at what it was spent on, why it was spent and how it was spent. But it isn't all his fault, his talking points don't actually explain things they just give him stuff to spout.
6:30am • #27
977,390 Points 352 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Be nice Than.  That's the template and that's what they go with.  But be nice.

Karl gets it, I know.  We have spoken many times about many things.  He gets it. 

 
6:35am • #28
390,099 Points Outside Blog

I know. I get tired of the same lies and half-truths. Government spending helped end the GD, but it had nothing to do with the social programs like the Dems and MSM are trying to pretend.

I was no more unkind than Karl's sarcastic: "difficult concept to grasp" statement.

Same for global warming. The 'alarmists' want to pick a random point in RECENT history and say this is the norm! Everything should stay right here! Really, what is the normal temperature for the world? About 30 years ago it was global cooling that was going to kill us all. The world has had ice ages, mini ice ages, warm spells, tropical spells, but they think that 100 years is enough to judge by. I won't even get into their fudging of data and 'hiding the decline' and the hockey stick and unreliable data from 100 years ago.
8:13am • #29
158,040 Points 2 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Jay, two quick points:

1. Paul is not anti-war. He believes that war needs to be defined and declared by congress. He even suggested that we send a specialized small team of people to take out Osama Bin Laden, which we eventually did.

2. Great point about the GDP. People do not realize that GDP consists of military purchases as well. For example, the majority of today's GDP is not from manufactured domestic goods, but purchases for the military.
11:06am • #30
977,390 Points 352 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Remember my previous post, Than, where I say the only thing we will be able to eat will eventually be soylent green?  Remember WHY they had to eat soylent green?  Sound familiar?

Of course there has been global warming!  Is it warmer now than during the Ice Age?  But it has been natural, not created by us, or by CO2 (which comprises less than one half of one percent of the atmosphere).  IF "they" can convince us we are at fault, then "they" can tax us and have more created control.  What you speak of is not the natural process - your disgust is the political aims of the falsehoods surrounding the claims.

Satar - George Bush conceived of the idea and handpicked the team that eventually got Trash Bin Laden.  We have known for many years he was using that house.

All gubment spending is included in GDP (it was GNP when I studied econ, but now they don't include the overseas stuff) - C+I+G+X-M.

Consumption + Investment + Gubment Spending + Exports minus Imports.

Some gubment spending is and has been good for the economy - highways for example and military spending, because it spurs private enterprise.  This causes economic growth.  The gubment spending that is NOT, NOT, NOT good for the economy (despite Pelosi's BRILLIANT statement) are transfer payments, which take money from one person and give it to another. 

My analogy for this is taking water from one end of the pool and pouring it back into the other end.  It does nothing for the quantity of water created by the pool (i.e. economic growth).

This is econ 101.

And the last war Congress declared was against Japan.  Not against Hitler, or anything since.  Now the president asks for the power and Congress gives its consent.  When Paul waves his hands and says we need to forget about war he looks like a nut.
2:43pm • #31
OCT
04
1,741,901 Points 20 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Jay,

Because of special interets and the desire to curry favor with voters, Congress wants to continue to spend. :)

Steve
8:09pm • #32
OCT
05
977,390 Points 352 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Steve - each person in Congress says "I am only spending a few hundred billion."  To they justify it.
3:01am • #33

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Jay Markanich - N. Virginia Home Inspector

Bristow, VA

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