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LIPSTICK ON A PIG??? WHO FINALLY BOUGHT THE BROOKLYN BRIDGE??

By
Real Estate Agent with Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate 303829;0225082372

LIPSTICK ON A PIG???

Good Grief.  Do they believe that we are so ignorant as to see good news in the housing numbers published these days??

This rant inspired by Obama Administration Releases September Housing Scorecard

• Rising home values have brought homeowner equity to its highest level since the third quarter of 2008 and helped lift 1.3 million families above water.

"homeowner equity to its highest level since the third quarter of 2008????" 

HA!  Our home prices are back to what they were in 2003-2004 with NO VALUE FOR THE 10 YEARS in BETWEEN.

"helped lift 1.3 million families above water???"

HA!  That leaves only about 12 million still UNDER WATER.

If the housing reports didn't insult our intelligence to the degree they do, perhaps our "confidence level" would improve.  Not yet.  Who puts credence in "confidence levels"??  They change based on what they read or believe which can be wrong, wrong.

Are we going to believe what we read?  Or, are we going to believe what we can see with our own eyes?? 

Hey, Mr. Reporting Service, we agents and brokers have our FACTUAL and ACTUAL DATA with which to compile our own reports.  Oh sure, many agents will believe your positive reports.  Many agents were not in business 10 years ago.  They have no historical or institutional memory and have only a "snapshot" of the housing market.  Snapshots are not as helpful as TRENDS.  

Our housing market LOST 30-40% of market value between 2007 and 2009.  Now, we're supposed to celebrate when there is a whopping 5% increase in average or median home prices Those home owners are now ONLY 25-35% UNDER WATER.

Why do our FACTUAL and ACTUAL reports show SLOW INCREMENTAL OR LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT IN THE HOUSING MARKET IN OUR AREA???  But, Lenn, all real estate is local.  Sure, all real estate is local but if the stats are concentrated in only narrow LOCAL areas, where does that leave the real of the area???  

BTW, Mr. Reporting Service, Washington DC, Northern Virginia and Maryland (sometimes West Virginia) are NOT ONE MARKET.  Combining these unique markets into one report simply confuses consumers. 

OPPORTUNITY TIME FOR HOME BUYERS.  OF THIS I AM SURE.  If there is a silver lining in the real estate market today, buyers should be jumping off the fence and buying a home.  Incredibly low interest rates and home prices are OPPORTUNITY TIME for HOME BUYERS. 

OPPORTUNITY TIME FOR SMART REAL ESTATE AGENTS.  The other silver lining is the intelligence of many real estate agents and brokers who have taken the time and done the hard work to learn the SHORT SALE INDUSTRY.  We, agents and home owners and home buyers have been at the mercy of the financial industry for the past 5 years trying to navigate SHORT SALE transaction for consumers, buyers and sellers. 


Courtesy, Lenn Harley, Broker, Homefinders.com, Serving home buyers in MD and Northern Virginia, 800-711-7988.

on the fence

ON THE FENCE.


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Comments (61)

Faye Y. Taylor
StepStone Realty, LLC - Floresville, TX
Country Living with City Convenience -Wilson Co TX

It is so local.  We are doing well in our area and actually see home prices up over the 2008 prices.  Why?  We are in a high demand area with a good local economy.  It almost seems like boom years here. The only difference is builders aren't putting a lot of specs on the ground.  Specs are there but not in great numbers.  And the builders are doing great incentives.  But the pre owneds are up in our area due to the oil boom.  Wish we could spread it around.  The average sales price for La Vernia in 2008 was $112 / sf; it is now about $120/sf for the good condition homes.  And lets not talk about rental rates which have gone through the roof

We are seeing some short sales in a couple of areas and foreclosures are up but overall we are doing well.   The short sales are either homes that have not been taken care of or in a "down" area or subdivision.   .

Oct 09, 2012 02:58 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Richard.  You are smarter than the average bear.

Reba.  That is a "top down" approach.  I prefer a "bottoms up" approach.  Real estate in other parts of the country are totally immaterial to local buyers.  Stats from across the river are meaningless.

Katerina.  Agents of short term duration have a narrow perspective.

Michelle.  I'll play.  It's fantastic AND it's insane.

Cathy.  HA!  Fact is, "elections always produce the biggest spin on numbers".

Tammie.  Agred, which is why folks need local agents and local facts.  One fact though is that many agents don't understand even their own local market.

Ginger.  I deal with real numbers from my own MLS.

Lucas. Thank YOU!!

Russell.  Good for you  Some of my market is on the upswing, slowly.  Some areas are not.

Lloyd.  WOW!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oct 09, 2012 03:27 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Ed Silva.  MY HERO!

You have a way of putting an exclamation sign on seemingly innocuous words.

 

Oct 09, 2012 03:28 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Evelyn.  None of our market has reached that point.

Christine.  BUT, BUT, BUT, don't doors get in the way of their ever increasingly long noses????

Brian.  All of the stats out of the government are routinely adjusted the following month, NOVEMBER 2.

Scott.  HA!  They tried to put lipstick on that unemployment stat and, guess what???  NO ONE BELIEVED THE FIGURE AND NOW THE MONTHLY UNEMPLOYMENT STAT IS TOTALLY WORTHLESS, NO MATTER WHAT IT IS.

Jeff and Jane.  You paint a very rosy picture and are so generous WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT I BELIEVE.

Tni.  In 2006, that owuld have spurred a 20% increase in list price.  Whatever happened to supply and demand??

Brad.  As long as they have a sufficiency of citizens who have drunk the Kool Aid, they'll continue.

Keith:  You wrote:  " the lack of inventory is due to the fact that so many homeowners can't sell right now since they are underwater"

To which I would say, you and I are two of a few who won't be surprised when prices do not skyrocket in the face of no inventory.

Oct 09, 2012 03:40 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Elizabeth I almost agree.  However, IF the economy could begin to grow at a rate of 5-6% a year, we could see home owners grow home equity again.  It's not going to happen with 1.2% growth a year.

Lehel.  Believe what you see in your own stats, not what you read or hear from folks with an interest in good numbers they cannot support with facts.

Susan.  Indeed.  It is confusing.

Bob.  I strongly believe that our future growth is tied to national economic growth and that depends on Nov. 2.

Michael.  Perhaps he lost a decimal.  43% or 4.3%????

Faye, Faye, Faye.  You have a very smart governor.

 

Oct 09, 2012 03:46 AM
Marte Cliff
Marte Cliff Copywriting - Priest River, ID
Your real estate writer

"Lies, damn lies, and statistics." Mark Twain told us long ago that statistics could be manipulated to prove whatever we wanted to prove... and right now it is in the administration's best interests to say that everything is wonderful.

Look at the false jobs report. Just manipulate those numbers a little here, a little there, and presto! Unemployment is down in September even while 345,000 fewer people are working.

Oct 09, 2012 04:03 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Marte.  That data has been irrelevant for so long I don't even know why they report it.

 

Oct 09, 2012 04:06 AM
Sharon Sein
Sein Organizing Solutions & Home Staging - Feasterville Trevose, PA

DON'T BELIEVE THE LIBERAL MEDIA!

Thanks Lenn for a great post as usual. From the many responses, I have a good feeling that at least the RE community is educating themselves before the next election. Choose wisely my friends as this affects all our futures.

Oct 09, 2012 04:06 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Sharon.  We're accustomed to dealing with the most important industry in our country.  You bet we are educating ourselves.

Oct 09, 2012 04:22 AM
Kathy Streib
Cypress, TX
Home Stager/Redesign

Lenn- I go to the "streets" when I want to know what's going on. I also go to Realtors who've been in the market long enough to have seen more than 3 cycles.  A very experienced Attorney told me a few years ago when people kept saying are getting better, that more foreclosures were about to come on the market and sure enough, they came.  I have some forthright Realtors here telling me that the only reason listings are down is because so many people are underwater and they can't sell. I hear that many of the houses here are being purchased by investors or those with cash.  

Oct 09, 2012 05:00 AM
Kimo Jarrett
Cyber Properties - Huntington Beach, CA
Pro Lifestyle Solutions

Most people don't understand the method or the statistics, remember, the newspapers and media talk and write at a 6th grade level so if most can't read except at that level, how does anyone expect them to comprehend what they have read?

We need to stop electing morons to Congress and to state legislative houses and elect fearless leaders who will vote to do what's right and begin moving our nation forward.  

Oct 09, 2012 06:37 AM
Dorte Engel
RE/MAX Leading Edge - Bowie, MD
ABC - Annapolis, Bowie, Crofton & rest of Maryland

Dear Lenn,

To quote Mark Twain, there are "liars, damn liars and statisticians ...."

Oct 09, 2012 07:20 AM
Thomas McCombs
Century 21 HomeStar - Akron, OH

If you were the incumbent running for president, what would you say?

Predictors have to predict, and analysts have to analyise. It is what they do in order to get paid. If they predict the wrong things, no one pays any attention to them.

But I do think the trend is up now. It may not be as fast or as broad as we would like, and it may still have a long way to go before we pass "go" but at least it is not still going down.

 

 

Oct 09, 2012 08:24 AM
Jan Green - Scottsdale, AZ
Value Added Service, 602-620-2699 - Scottsdale, AZ
HomeSmart Elite Group, REALTOR®, EcoBroker, GREEN

Lenn - thank you for always being there to champion the real estate community.  Amazing what the headlines say these days. We have areas that lost as much as 75% of their value, so this is really fodder for those that don't trust the experts in their area.  For a minute I thought you were going to talk about foreclosures and flipping homes!   I was ready to post my blog as a link, "Lipstick on a Pig - Always Get a Home Inspection!"  Thanks again for always being the voice of reason here!

Oct 09, 2012 03:07 PM
Sharon Parisi
United Real Estate Dallas - Dallas, TX
Dallas Homes

Lenn, I could not agree with you more.  The sad thing is, they do think we are that stupid! Some people actually believe the tales being told.

Oct 09, 2012 03:55 PM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Kathy.  Our market is a tad high for those investor CASH buyers you see in some areas of Florida.  Folks in our are who are upside down just suffer with the high mortgage payments.  Some cannot (me) refinance due to the impossibility of appraisal.  Some cannot (me) qualify for the government programs because they have portfolio loans.  Some cannot (me) do anything but keep making the high mortgage payments on properties with half the value of the mortgage.  YUK!!!

Kimo.  I listen to Congressmen and have one thought.  Has any of them ever had an original thought?????   Those few who do speak from the heart or mind, are anathama to their own party leaders.

Dorte.  Agreed.  I do, however, love stats.  Love them. 

Thomas.  I agree.  That said, a 3-5% gain following a 30-40% loss does not help many folks.

Jan.  HA!  Just making a ripple.

Sharon.  Sad, isn't it????

Oct 09, 2012 08:19 PM
Lyn Sims
Schaumburg, IL
Real Estate Broker Retired

Interesting that I was just looking at an infographic telling me equity has been given back to ''XX' number of people ... I was thinking what? Doesn't make sense.

Oct 10, 2012 02:08 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Lyn.  Anyone can publish anything they want any time.

Oct 10, 2012 07:17 AM
Kathy Streib
Cypress, TX
Home Stager/Redesign

Lenn- please tell that "me" person I hear 'ya and what's sickening is that all of this will probably happen again. 

Oct 13, 2012 04:39 AM
Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Kathy.  And again, and again.

Oct 13, 2012 08:05 AM