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Please excuse me for using a technique that I've learned from the national media. That is, get that headline that draws attention, even if it isn't supported by the articles content.

I was reading an article from Fortune posted on CNNMoney.com entitled "Banks are down, but not yet out,"  and it made me wonder, if things are as bad as reported than why no failures? It mentioned only one failure, Internet startup NetBank.They kind of got stopped in their tracks before they got going. It's easy with hindsight to say that the timing was all wrong.

Banks do fail you know. Back whenever, I believe somewhere in the late 80's, early 90's I worked in a bank, which was closed by the Gov. Actually in the great state of New Hampshire they closed our 5 major banks in one day. Then, by some miracle, after taking out all the bad loans, they reopened what was left as 3 different banking entities. They actually did it over the weekend. So, it can happen.

But will it?

Well, we're seeing big writedowns, and problems with CDO's (collateral debt obligations), and liquidity puts, someone actually guaranteed the performance of the subprime paper, BUT, no failures. I think it comes as no surpise that I believe it just won't happen. You may think that the only reason is that the government won't let it, which they won't, but there's another reason. The system is really that strong. It can weather this storm!

Yes we will continue to see the bad press, because that's what the press likes to write about. However, our system will endure and some smaller entities will grow and possibly replace some of your current old favorites.

In essence some of the smaller banks were actually saved by their size, or lack thereof. They might have wanted to play with the big boys, but just didn't have the ability to do so. Many/most continue to be quite strong. Imagine that. 

Now there's an interesting story that will probably never be written.

Galore; according to Webster's, means in abundance, plentifully.

Will we see bank failures in abundance?

Not likely.

At all?

Don't think so.

 

 

 

8 Comments on Bank Failures Galore!

Hi Jay

The lessons we see from the past. Remember that whole Savings and Loan thing in the early 90's?

Sincerely

Tom Braatz

01/23/2008 08:34 AM by Tom Braatz, South Eastern Wisconsin (Tom Braatz)


Tom,

Living through it was fun, not really, but interesting in hindsight.

It's been around 30 years in the industry and when I'm asked today about this being the worst market I've been in I answer no.

Sometimes I wonder if we do learn. We'll see.

Jay

01/23/2008 08:40 AM by Jay Beckingham (Allied Home Mortgage Capital Corp.)


I would have to agree this is nothing compared to the S&L issues of the 80's

01/23/2008 02:19 PM by Paul Moye, Broker, ABR, GRI, CSP, SRES (Keller Williams Realty Franklin )


Paul,

actually having something to compare the market to makes it a little easier to understand and tolerate.

jay

01/23/2008 02:27 PM by Jay Beckingham (Allied Home Mortgage Capital Corp.)


What I don't understand is  with the 80's not being that long ago....how did they not learn? are the collective memories so short? why didn't they see this coming? and if they did...why did they allow it?

01/23/2008 09:47 PM by Joan Mirantz- Concord New Hampshire Realtor (Keeler Family Realtors)


Joan,

there's a couple of things. one is the constant change in our indusrty both in structure and people. many of our current "old pro's" so to speak still were't involved in the 80's.

also this time greed really took hold.

Jay

01/24/2008 04:50 AM by Jay Beckingham (Allied Home Mortgage Capital Corp.)


Jay, given the current circumstances, if nothing changes, I think we might see some bank failures.  Neil Bush was one of the culprits in the savings and loan scandal, way back when.  A lot of people lost all their money.  Since then, I've put my money in several different banks.  As for the market not being the worst you've seen?  Better check the news.  Last year was the worst in 25 years!

01/24/2008 02:21 PM by Terry Haugen STAGE it RIGHT! 321-956-2495 (Stage it Right!)


Terry,

i've got to disagree in that i can't see it happening.

the problem with checking the news is that they paint a distorted picture.

jay

01/25/2008 05:04 AM by Jay Beckingham (Allied Home Mortgage Capital Corp.)


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Loan Officer: Jay Beckingham (Allied Home Mortgage Capital Corp.)
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