Every so often I will take a client on a tour of all the spec homes that are available in areas such as Maricopa and Queen Creek. These areas within Pinal County are a bit further out, but its hard to beat the bang for the buck one can get in comparison to areas in the East Valley such as Tempe/Chandler/Gilbert.
Lets take Maricopa, for example. I would estimate I am out there on average about once every month or two. The last time I was there was probably in November - and boy did the builders have spec homes. Every subdivision had 5, 10, 15 and sometimes 20+ spec homes in inventory!! This was well inline with what we were seeing in the greater Phoenix market - aka huge inventory. And with builders slashing prices and offering 5 and in a few cases 10 6 figure discounts, resale homes were taking a backseat to spec homes. The theory was (and I suppose still is?) that the new construction spec home supply (oversupply) would have to be burnt off before a significant dent would take place to the resale inventory.
Guess what? It may just be happening. We saw a reduction in overall Phoenix inventory in December. But what I found most interesting - occurred this weekend. I was showing a client numerous properties in Maricopa. And subdivision after subdivision we found the same thing. A FEW SPECS. This subdivision had 1 spec. The next had 6. The next had zero. The next had 7. The next had 3. Another 2. WHERE DID ALL THE SPECS GO??? And what was the cause of this observed reduction? Are there more buyers out now? Did the builders reduce construction activity during 06'? Are there new city/county based restrictions in place? Maybe its a few of these things...maybe all of them contributing. But in Maricopa at least, is the spec home becoming an endangered species??
The builders cut back on inventory as a response to a slowing market. IT's a leading indicator. Spec homes are just too risky to own in mulitples when the buyers aren't buying.
kk