Every so often I will take a client on a tour of all the spec homes that are available in areas such as Maricopa and Queen Creek.  These areas within Pinal County are a bit further out, but its hard to beat the bang for the buck one can get in comparison to areas in the East Valley such as Tempe/Chandler/Gilbert.

Lets take Maricopa, for example.  I would estimate I am out there on average about once every month or two.  The last time I was there was probably in November - and boy did the builders have spec homes.  Every subdivision had 5, 10, 15 and sometimes 20+ spec homes in inventory!!  This was well inline with what we were seeing in the greater Phoenix market - aka huge inventory.  And with builders slashing prices and offering 5 and in a few cases 10 6 figure discounts, resale homes were taking a backseat to spec homes.  The theory was (and I suppose still is?) that the new construction spec home supply (oversupply) would have to be burnt off before a significant dent would take place to the resale inventory.

Guess what?  It may just be happening.  We saw a reduction in overall Phoenix inventory in December.  But what I found most interesting - occurred this weekend.  I was showing a client numerous properties in Maricopa.  And subdivision after subdivision we found the same thing.  A FEW SPECS.  This subdivision had 1 spec.  The next had 6.  The next had zero.  The next had 7.  The next had 3.  Another 2WHERE DID ALL THE SPECS GO???  And what was the cause of this observed reduction?  Are there more buyers out now?  Did the builders reduce construction activity during 06'?  Are there new city/county based restrictions in place?  Maybe its a few of these things...maybe all of them contributing.  But in Maricopa at least, is the spec home becoming an endangered species??

 
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6 Comments on Where did the Specs go???

JAN
15
2007
369,297 Points 110 Featured Posts Outside Blog

The builders cut back on inventory as a response to a slowing market.  IT's a leading indicator.  Spec homes are just too risky to own in  mulitples when the buyers aren't buying.

kk

2:33pm • #1
533,544 Points 52 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

I do believe when I look at numbers for Las Vegas residential building permits I noticed a downward trend in the Phoenix area too.  Be thankful your builders figured it out a year before ours did! 

I have watched new construction (entry level) standing inventory disappear in the last 3-4 weeks in the South, Soutwest and Henderson portions of our valley.  This is splendid news for our resale market!

I heard that builders want to go back to dirt lots and that is what I am finding for SFRs under $300K for those areas I mentioned

3:40pm • #2
5 Featured Posts
We were surprised here in Northwest Indiana to find the week of Christmas and the first two weeks of 2007 to be extremely active.  We sold 3 specs right away at the start of the year, balance this against the fact that last year we didn't sell a single one in January.
4:31pm • #3
8 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Kristal - You are right.  Spec homes are one heck of a leading indicator.  I just wish I could attribute discrete percentages to the decrease...ie we see 50% less spec homes because of increased buyers and 50% less due to reduced builder building!

Renee - I would think builders would always want to go the dirt lot route.  Then they could more easily project their revenue stream further into the future?

Steve - All indicators in AZ point to increased activity in the new year.  Time will tell as the statistics come out!

 Thanks for your comments!

6:11pm • #4
JAN
19
2007

Kaushik- I have a Queen Creek address, but am really in Pinal County(Johnson Ranch).  I don't know where you are looking, but all around me, the builders have a ton of specs.  If you need some help finding them, feel free to contact me.

Alex

12:18am • #5
8 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Alex - I was primarily looking in Maricopa and there was a marked decrease.  I can tell that the # of specs in Chandler have decreased as well.  The Queen Creek side of pinal county, haven't been out there in 2-3 months, but considering the inventory back then, I wouldn't be surprised if there is still a bunch out there!
1:13am • #6

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Kaushik Sirkar

Chandler, AZ

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