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Mortgage Bankers Of America 08 Forecast

By Eleanor Thorne

Mortgage and Lending with Equity Resources NMLS 67179 Licensed in NC

January 25, 2008 01:43 AM

mba

The Mortgage Bankers of America posted an Executive Podcast Forecasting 2008. The comments started with comments addressing how many of our collegues are out of the business, but also points to borrowers who acted in ways that created the current issues we all feel in the Economy. Get a couple of extra cups of coffee - this is pretty dry... and I know you are not surprised... but the overall message to CONGRESS was that we need GOOD laws to help us.

The GSE loan limit increase (meaning Fannie and Freddie would have one year to consider loans under $730,000 at conforming limits) and potentially some form of FHA reform is included in the House version of the Stimulus package. Senator Dodd, now back from Iowa, is set to have additional hearings next week on this subject.

The Economist at MBA say that we should all be watching the weakness in the SERVICING industry - as they feel this could be a leading indicator of further delinquencies... interesting. They see the end of this in 09 - which is certainly not a surprise. They also said that Durable Goods numbers next week will be the determining factor on weather Bernanke lowers on the 31st. I TOTALLY AGREE!

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Colleen Fischesser Northwest Property Shop

NextHome Experience - Chelan, WA

A Tradition of Trust in the Pacific NW since 1990!

Eleanor, I'm particularly interested in the conforming loan limit change. It could mean huge things for my market.

Jan 25, 2008 02:01 AM

Jackie - computer-training-atlanta.com

770.498.7333 - Atlanta, GA

Learn to leverage technology to get more done.

Eleanor - kudos to you for keeping up with the regulatory side of things. In an industry that is so regulated, knowing what's going on is more important than all the marketing in the world (IMHO).

Jan 27, 2008 10:50 PM

Charlotte Home Loans Your Charlotte Mortgage Lender

Charlotte, NC

Eleanor, You are my hero. These details bore me to tears... I am glad we have wonderful people like yourself that help decipher it!

Ed Nailor - Charlotte home loans

Jan 27, 2008 11:23 PM

Jolynne Photography, Creative Wedding Photography, Family Portraits, Bar Mitzvahs

Jolynne Photography - Hemet, CA

Bat Mitzvahs, Senior Pictures, Event Photography

Eleanor, did you catch the 60 minutes report on the mortgage crisis and how it intersects with the overall economy?

Jan 28, 2008 04:24 AM

Eleanor Thorne

Equity Resources - Cary, NC

Advantage Lending 919-649-5058

Joey! Yes I did! I thought that the timelineoffered by the AP on exactly what's happened in the last year is interesting. The real fallout - as mentioned will come as folks see their pension and mutual funds lose value. My dad was one of the first people in America to sell Mortgage Backed Securites in the 1970s. I have those tombstones in my office... the largest purchaser of MBS (mortgages) at that time here in NC was the NC Teachers Pension Fund. They are still one of the largest non-bank purchasers! So! As I told folks last year - we are not only the bad guys for making profit on the poor client who can no longer make their payment - we also messed up a LIBRARIANS PENSION!

Tomorrow will be the big day. Durable goods will tell us if the mfg industries are having a slow down which could create job cuts... Consumer Confidence will tell us if the Government Stimulus package is getting into the Psyche of the consumer... and I thought the comments by Duncan (economist at MBA) regarding Servicing Sector fed right back to what 60 minutes said. More and More people are taking 2nd and 3rd jobs to try and make SOME kind of payment. Many of those part time jobs are in retail and the service industry. If we are losing THOSE jobs - again it's a scary place.

Historically - we need the Fed Funds rate to match the 2 yr. That means Fed Funds rate should be @2.3. We are at 3.5.

Jan 28, 2008 05:50 AM

Mike Jones

SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) - Tucson, AZ

Mike Jones NMLS 223495

Eleanor,

See? This is why I subscribe to your blog. Your Dad is proud, I'm sure!

Mike in Tucson

Jan 28, 2008 09:11 PM

Mike - Yeah, he still follows this stuff too. He says Bernanke has not been very effective at taking the info he's given by those 200 economist and actually doing very much with it. "He keeps looking in the rear view mirror!" That's not FOREcasting IMHO

Jan 28, 2008 10:08 PM

San Diego real estate blog San Diego real estate agent

brokerforyou.com CA Lic#00706331 - San Diego, CA

Great post.

Seems the Fed is cutting rates every month!

See my post on real estate market forecasts "The number one question in San Diego real estate"

Bob

San Diego real estate blog

Mar 21, 2008 07:55 AM

I just came back to catch up on the commentary. This cartoon is one of my favorites.

Mar 21, 2008 04:56 PM

Mike - Howdy! Looks like the 3rd wave of the bubble is on it's way. Interesting...

Bob - I had not seen your post on San Diego - thanks for sharing... I'm assuming you are aware of this... but Condos are not included in the New Homes Inventory numbers. I would think this would have some impact on the San Diego numbers as well. Most of the cities in NC (Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh, Wilmington) have large condo projects going on in the "downtown" areas. Thanks for stopping by!

Mar 23, 2008 04:27 AM

Mortgage Bankers Of America 08 Forecast

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