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"If models have so little predictive power, what use are they?"

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Pareto Realty TN #251071

The title to this post is from page 36 of Alan Greenspan's book . . . It's in the final pages of his first chapter, and I was reading along somewhat "mind-numbed" by several pages of "economist-speak" looking for tid-bits of wisdom that might apply to my current way of thinking . . . and relevance to developing a highly productive real estate business.

VOILA!

We all have heard OVER and OVER again of the importance of "models and Sytems" when developing our business. We are told that these are the keys to getting from "E" (Entrepreneurial) to "P" (Purposeful) ways of doing business. If we look to people who have gone before us and study their business models, we can proceed without having to re-create the wheel.

If we REALLY study these "proven models and systems", our odds of success increase exponentially . . .

Are there any guarantees?

If we do it EXACTLY per the model, will we ABSOLUTELY succeed at the same level as those who developed the models?

My experience is a resounding "NO" . . . there are no guarantees . . . Some folks simply do as they are told and succeed at INSANELY high levels, while other folks do the same actions and find marginal success . . . and at the same time, there are those people who don't appear to be following ANY model and regularly run out of deposit slips at the bank.

At some level, we are ALL seeking the secret formula for success. For sure, we can get a "leg-up" by plugging into an existing model, but where from there?

Alan Greenspan is talking about models for "creating reasonable forecasts" in the economic arena . . . I'm talking about models for creating solid and sustainable businesses in the real estate arena . . . Let's consider a few quotes from the book and how they translate for us . . . All from page 36 - Inside the ( . . . ) are my filler words - deleted the economic words and replaced with real estate relevancy.

" . . . The exercise of using them (models) ensures that basic rules of (Developing a foundationally strong real estate business) CONSISTENCY are being applied to a set of assumptions. And models certainly can help maximize the effectiveness of the few parcels of information that can be assumed with certainty. The more specific and data-rich the model, the more effective it will be."

TAKE THE GUESS-WORK OUT OF IT - Models sharpen your focus and hone in your action for max effectiveness.

"They need an ANCHOR"

Models must be based on REALITIES and cannot be based on a simple series of "Abstractions" floating around.

"The greater the detail, the more representative the abstract model is likely to be of the real world . . . "

"My early training was to immerse myself in extensive detail in the workings of a small part of the world and infer from that detail the way that segment of the world behaves."

So what all of this does for me is that we must develop models of sufficient detail that we can actually TRACK efforts and measure RESULTS beginning with a smaller sampling to validate sustainability . . . and then to expand our scope with the models that perform the best. 

BUILD a FIRM FOUNDATIONAL model that works well on a small scale and then GROW.

All of the above is what the Millionaire Real Estate Agent (MREA) business model offers. It IS the anchor. There are few (if any) abstractions. There are NO guarantees that the MREA model will deliver the same results for every person who plugs them in . . . It's those folks who "get" the need to "sample" pieces and develop strong tracking and accountability before accelerating growth who IMHO find greater, sustainable success.

Best,

b

Barry Owen

Productiivity Coach and Principal Broker

Keller Williams Realty - Nashville, TN - Green Hills

www.theowengroup.net

www.creatingspaces.blogspot.com

Simply living the FourFold Way in Open Space

 

Posted by

Barry Owen

Founder
Principal Broker
Pareto Realty
Nashville, TN

615.502.2080
www.paretorealty.co  
Call me: 615-568-2123
email me: barryo@comcast.net

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