Yields rose again on Tuesday with most spots on the Treasury curve rising 8-9bp in calm, orderly trading as the market awaited today's FOMC meeting. December durable goods came in much stronger than expected, rising 5.2%. The S&P/Case-Shiller US Composite Home Price Index, which measures housing prices in twenty MSA's, declined in November by 7.74% year-over-year, the largest monthly year-over-year decline since this data series commenced in January 2001. Declines occurred in 17 of the 20 MSAs. News continued to swirl around the bond insurers with reports hitting the wires that the NY insurance commissioner requested that S&P and Moody's delay downgrading MBIA and AMBAC, followed soon by reports that such a request did not take place and strong statements by the rating agencies that they would never delay a rating change as a result of regulator requests. This morning, bond prices are down a touch despite small losses in overseas stock markets. The sometimes reliable ADP's payroll forecast came in surprisingly strong at 130,000, implying that the current consensus estimate for Friday's release of the December payrolls may be too low. The advance report of fourth quarter GDP came in at an anemic 0.6%, half of estimates. If that number stands through the subsequent releases, it will tie 1Q2007's level at the lowest GDP reading since 2002. Expectations for a 50bp cut by the FOMC today remain in place but are waivering some with February futures now trading at 3.075%.

FNMA 5.5% February Coupon

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