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Cogs in the progaganda machine...

By
Home Builder with Jesse Clifton & Associates AREC License #15292
It's a great time to buy... or is it?

Time to get serious... In yet another timely post by Poinciana's finest, Broker Bryant clues us in to what some of his readers are saying regarding NAR's "It's a great time to buy" campaign. If you haven't read his blog click on over and have a gander. TLW has issued a challenge of sorts to counter NAR"s sunshine-pushing position with a dose of reality. Well, here it is.

While I realize the importance of a positive attitude I believe it's critical to not let hype override reality. Take NAR's campaign, for example. It may very well be a good time for some people in some markets to buy. In other markets, perhaps not so much. Beyond and paramount to local market performance there are the individual sellers and buyers circumstances to consider.

The problem with such blanket generalizations such as “It’s a great time to buy” is they reduce us in the eyes of the public from consummate professionals to simply market cheerleaders. That's not our role. Or role is to provide timely, accurate and pertinent information, whether good news or not so good news, so sellers and buyers can make informed decisions regarding the purchase and sale of real estate.

Consumers are not uneducated. They have access to the same general market information we do. They read the same newspapers, they listen to the same radio, they read the same internet news sites. Their power of reasoning and common sense is equal to ours. They have fears and concerns we might be able to allay but we should never, ever stoop to espousing propaganda simply to stimulate the market or motivate sellers and buyers.

Rather than pick up our pom-poms head to the field to chant BUY, BUY, BUY perhaps we should honestly evaluate our individual markets and tailor any recommendations to those individual sellers and buyers needs. Where market conditions are experiencing a downturn, roll with it. Be honest with consumers about what the market is truly doing and the risks involved with their decisions. Anything less than a no holes barred honest assessment is doing our clients a disservice. We also run the risk of damaging them financially, which is something the professionals I know would just about crawl buck naked and blind folded on broken glass across the state of Texas to avoid.

Over the years we've told more than a few clients that, for their situation, the timing didn't appear to be right and perhaps they should hold off on their decision to sell or buy. The advice we’ve offered, which I think the majority of REALTORS® would offer, is advice that is tailored to the best interests of our client, not our wallet.

As REALTORS®, we must to work to overcome the public perception of the real estate agent as lazy, unethical and self-serving. The truth is our membership is made up of an incredible group of talented, hardworking, consumer focused men and women. Rather than shove NAR's propaganda down the throat of Mr. & Mrs. Consumer, we should use our position in the community to show that we really do have the consumers best interests at heart. We are the consumers advocate in a real estate transaction. Promote that position and shove the propaganda back in the closet. Our clients expect and deserve that level of care.

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Comments(47)

Kai Lani
RE/MAX Kai Lani - Kailua, HI
RE/MAX
Hi Guys, It is a buyer's market, and it is time for them to start their investing again.   Loans are cheap, cheap, cheap.   They will start soon.   Jerry
Jan 31, 2008 07:26 AM
Kai Lani
RE/MAX Kai Lani - Kailua, HI
RE/MAX
Hi Guys, It is a buyer's market, and it is time for them to start their investing again.   Loans are cheap, cheap, cheap.   They will start soon.   Jerry
Jan 31, 2008 07:26 AM
Bill Gillhespy
16 Sunview Blvd - Fort Myers Beach, FL
Fort Myers Beach Realtor, Fort Myers Beach Agent - Homes & Condos
Hi Jesse,  Very well written analysis of this issue.  Remember, NAR was pretty much all alone saying the market in 2005 should continue well into the future.  I don't think that guy is around anymore !
Jan 31, 2008 08:43 AM
Charity Lane
O'Brien Realty - Prince Frederick, MD
Great post. You are so right that it is much better to inform the consumer with data specifically in their market area and for the properties they are interested in. There are some great deals to be had as well as great financing options.
Jan 31, 2008 09:41 AM
Bethany Little
Whitworth Builders Realty, Inc. - Navarre, FL

"Why The Housing Bubble Won't Burst" by Business week magazine.  There were people who predicted the market would sustain and others predicted that it wouldn't.  I didn't cancel my subscription to business week, and it doesn't make me mistrust NAR because they had to fire someone who got it so wrong. 

We'll just have to see how it plays out, and deal with it locally.

Jan 31, 2008 09:56 AM
Anonymous
Meyer Leibovitch
Let's say I have $100,000 in cash. I have stable employment and a $200k income. I have no debts and my wife and I are starting a family. We are currently renting and don't have enough space. I plan to live in the area for the next ten years and my hobby is home carpentry. I have perfect credit. There is a house in my favorite neighborhood that is foreclosed on and is currently listed $50k below market. I really like it. Do those circumstances make it a good time for me to buy?
Jan 31, 2008 10:11 AM
#33
Kai Lani
RE/MAX Kai Lani - Kailua, HI
RE/MAX
Hi Meyer,  I saw your note and just had to give my two-cent's worth.   All I have to say, is what is this hypothetical person waiting for, heaven?   These are the kind of times people look back on and say, boy, I remember when . . . . I surely wish I would have bought the home then.   Go for it Mr. Hypothetical, and don't look back.   Five years from now you will be happy, happy, happy!   Jerry
Jan 31, 2008 10:46 AM
Jennifer Kirby
Kirby Fine Homes - Minneapolis, MN
The Luxury Agent
Why is it that NAR is "manipulating the masses" with their campaign, but no ones says the media is doing the same thing with their blanket statements about the doom and gloom of the national housing market and economy? Most likely because it makes better news to create a villain, NAR and us Realtors, and point the finger at someone else other then themselves, the very news outlets that told everyone it was a great time to sell a few years ago.
Jan 31, 2008 03:03 PM
Jesse Clifton
Jesse Clifton & Associates - Fairbanks, AK

Bryant Tutas, Broker-REALTOR(R) Tutas Towne Realty, Inc - Hey, Bryant - Well, if that's not an endorsement I don't know what is.  All the consumer ever wanted is the truth.  I totally agree.

Gary Woltal - REALTOR® Dallas Ft. Worth - Hey, Gary - Yes, sir.  Anything less is just not going to work.

Roberta LaRocca - REALTOR® Las Vegas - Hi, Roberta - You got it. If we do that we'll be rewarded with more business than we could shake a stick at.

Jim Crawford~ Atlanta Real Estate, ABR - Hey, Jim - Thanks!  It's a great market for some folks... it's all about individual needs.

John Novak - REALTOR®, Las Vegas and Henderson, NV - Hi, John - You just summed it up perfectly!

Vickie NagyABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO, SRES - Hi, Vickie - Rates are low, I agree but blanket statements don't apply to every market. There are instances where despite the low rates, it's not a good time.  I deal with a lot of military buyers and for some of them it's definitely NOT the time to buy.  Getting orders to another post within a year or even two could be a disaster.

Kirk Williams, #LMA 510-LO-32537 - Hi, Kirk - Even in bad markets, real estate still changed hands, I'll agree.  The point of the post wasn't to say that it isn't a good time to buy for some people in some markets, but rather that general statements are seen as self serving and don't inspire consumer confidence.  I'm hanging my hat with the crowd that says there are problems with the economy and as such with real estate.  Why?  Well, for one, money is tight despite low interest rates.  Tight lending guidelines have pushed a good many potential buyers out of the market - the changes at Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and soon FHA will make it more expensive to acquire a loan.  Second, but perhaps more important, is the struggling overall economy.  Jobless rates are rising, stocks are volatile, commodities are rising, and inflationary pressures are getting stronger.  Then we have $1.2 trillion dollars in mortgage defaults that haven't hit the market yet.  Those are not the signs of a healthy economy. Will it collapse the housing market?  Not entirely, but it should give us a moment of pause before bellowing out BUY, BUY, BUY because there are some negative factors at work.

Margaret Woda, Maryland REALTOR- Hi, Margaret - Thank you!  I do remember those interest rates unfortunately.  I remember paying 19% on a construction loan... the thought of that today gives me a headache.  I don't dispute that there are good values to be had, but the millions NAR spent could have been directed toward  acknowledging the difference in markets around the country rather than issuing a blanket statement.  But, here's hoping we don't see 17% again.  Yuck!

Karen Anne Stone- Fort Worth Real Estate Online-  Hi, Karen Anne - You are absolutely correct.  When the media was touting the crash of the real estate market, there were segments that were quite healthy... ours for one.  We're still doing ok. I loved "Real Estate Is Local." That's much better than buy, buy, buy.  I would be honored if you passed it out.  Thank Bryant and TLW for the inspiration!

Ruthmarie Hicks- Hi, Ruthmarie - Glad to hear you're feeling better.  The It's-a-great-time campaign has the same effect on me!  There's no denying that some markets, especially the coastal areas will continue to enjoy a relatively strong market to some degree.  I haven't really likened those areas to Europe but that's a great way to look at it.  I also agree with you that buying what someone can afford will generally be better than renting. 

Matt Grohe - Hi, Matt - If local markets indicate it's a good time to buy and buyers can find favorable financing and have the desire, then it would be a good time to buy.  Perceptions are hard to overcome, which is one reason I really dislike the media or NAR making broad sweeping statements when they don't necessarily apply to every market.  Keep on evaluating your market and giving consumers advice based on what your market is doing and you'll be fine!

Mike Jones - Mr. Mike in Tuscon - Thanks, Mike... I'm thinking that Bryant had a little something to do with it... it was definitely a nice surprise this afternoon. 

Hi, Ann Gravel  - Very well said.  Never be afraid to be truthful.  Words we should strive to live by every day!

Mike Jaquish- Hey, Mike - It's a great time to make informed decisions... I like that!  I think we need to get these comments in the hands of some NAR directors.  Oh, and you're right... mortgage monies and the overall economy have a major impact on our local markets - we should all be mindful of what's happening on the local scene as it will impact us locally.

"The Lovely Wife"...Broker Bryant's...Wife!- Howdy, TLW.  Gotta have our morning coffee.  No coffee = a cranky Jesse. J

Hugh Krone Sussex County NJ Century 21 Realtor - Hi, Hugh - Isn't it the truth?  Our dues money could be doing so much more!

Paul Slaybaugh, Scottsdale AZ Real Estate- Hey, Paul - The sweeping generalities need to go away in favor of a campaign that focuses on US as the sources of local real estate market information.  NAR can examine national trends, and they have a place in the discussion, but it really is all about what's happening locally.  I think sometimes even NAR forgets that.

Chuck Willman, Realtor®, ABR, TRC - Hi, Chuck - I agree with you.  These are serious times... folly doesn't really need a seat at the table, so to speak.

Lola Audu~Grand Rapids, Michigan Real Estate - Hi, Lola - You're welcome!  Thanks for reading my little rant. 

"The Lovely Wife"...Broker Bryant's...Wife!-  TLW - I'm kinda inclined to agree with your not so humble opinion.  We can't kick start the market with hype... it just makes us look foolish.  Foolish doesn't inspire confidence or trust.  Thanks to you and Bryant for the inspiration.   We're looking forward to a great summer this year... if you and Bryant want to get away, come up and see us.  The fishing and shopping are great! J

Jeanette Vallance - Hi, Jeanette - I'm not advocating the abandonment of a positive attitude... far from it.  I just don't feel that NAR should be pushing propaganda down the throats of consumers or using us as pawns in a half-baked marketing scheme.  even with low interest rates, there are pockets where it might not be a good time to buy.  With $1.2 trillion in mortgage foreclosures expected to hit this year, changing lending requirements, etc. it's a little misguided to chant buy, buy, buy... as a national campaign.  If local conditions warrant, then I agree... buy.  It's blanket statements I disagree with... good and bad.

Christy Powers- Pooler, Savannah Real Estate Agent- Hi, Christy - Well said... if we always deliver on honesty and integrity and treat our clients to the professional service they are entitled to, they will keep us busy.... and that's the best way to move forward... at least in my opinion.

Al Maxwell - Real Estate Agent  - Hi, Al - Thanks for stopping by and reading!

Frank Rubi Louisiana Real Estate-Homes for Sale  -  Hey, Frank - Yea, we're moving along a little better than we were during the first half of January... I'm hoping it continues.  I don't predict that we will have much more than 2-3% appreciation (market wide) this year but I do think we'll keep moving forward.

Portland Oregon Real Estate >> Wayne B. Pruner, GRI - Hi, Wayne - Outstanding.  That's what it all comes down to... local market performance and buyer needs.  Here's hoping Portland keeps on rocking and rolling!

Bethany Little- Hi, Bethany - I agree with your description as NAR being the lobbyist.  The issue I take is with their message.   One size does not fit all.  These are the same people that were saying "It's a great time" in the middle of the one of the biggest real estate bull markets.  The message is just disingenuous.  Admittedly, I've written more than a few over full price contracts - some by as much as $150K because it was what the buyer wanted and they were prepared for the eventual and inevitable downturn.  I told many buyers that got caught up in the frenzy that they should probably let a particular house go... many of them did and are fortunate now not to be in a position where they have vastly more into the house than it's worth.  I also built more than a few houses where the buyers didn't care about costs or appraised values... but they plan to be in the property for a long time and if not, they have the financial ability to take on any loses they might incur. 

Melina Tomson Salem Oregon Real Estate Specialist - Hi, Melina - Bryant actually inspired the post... Thanks for reading!

RE/MAX Kai Lani - Hey, Jerry - It is definitely a buyers market.  On that I can't argue.  We're seeing more buyer activity lately than in the past month, which I'm very happy about!

Bill Gillhespy Fort Myers Beach Realtor-  Hi, Bill - I remember NAR being very acting in pushing encouraging buyers to jump into the market... even as it escalated through the roof.  I don't think that guy is around anymore either.

Charity Lane - Hi, Charity - You've got it.  We have some homes here that represent great values as well!

Bethany Little- Beth - I don't know that I distrust NAR because of the ad campaign, but I do question the blanket approach. 

 Meyer Leibovitch - Hi, Meyer - I agree with Jerry... under those circumstances I would say it's probably not a bad idea to move ahead with a purchase.  Take a few of those points out of the equation and the decision might go from good to questionable.  It's all relative to the local market and the buyer(s). 

RE/MAX Kai Lani -  Agreed, Jerry.  Under those circumstances I doubt they would look back in 5 years and be unhappy. Then again, as with any investment, past performance is not guarantee of future returns. 

Jennifer Kirby - Hi, Jennifer - I agree with you completely.  The media will more than likely never acknowledge their blanket "the market is crashing" predictions were too general and that some markets performed quite well during the time others were going down considerably.  Personally I think the media portraying a nationwide crash is just asirresponsible as NAR's campaign.  Both push aside the principle that notwithstanding national financial trends, all real estate is local.

Jan 31, 2008 04:56 PM
Dan Forbes
Bradenton, FL
Well said, "As REALTORS®, we must to work to overcome the public perception of the real estate agent as lazy, unethical and self-serving."  Kudos!
Jan 31, 2008 10:10 PM
Richard Lecinski
Long Realty Company - Oro Valley, AZ
The real estate market is like the weather, its different all over the country. It certainly is a great time to be buying.
Feb 01, 2008 01:49 AM
Anonymous
Meyer Leibovitch

Hi Guys-

I was actually trying to make more of a point that for some it is a great time to buy while for others it isn't. I tried to make the hypothetical buyer's situation the extreme. Clearly, it's not always a great time to buy or sell. Hence, the sub-prime debacle. All of the people that actually couldn't afford to buy when they thought it was a great time to buy wish they hadn't :)

Feb 01, 2008 02:44 AM
#39
Kirk Williams
Private Venture Capital - Everett, WA

"Well, for one, money is tight despite low interest rates.  Tight lending guidelines have pushed a good many potential buyers out of the market - the changes at Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and soon FHA will make it more expensive to acquire a loan."

The only place money is "tight" as you say is the Jumbo market and remedy is on the way by raising the ceiling. Changes in risk pricing has already occurred and it has been my experience (particularly FHA) financing (the Non-Jumbo crowd) is the same as it was 20, 10 or 5 years ago and in fact FHA is your best bet for people with distressed credit AND is the better program than the exotics that were offered in the past. 

The guidelines for FHA in fact will be improving with the modification of down payment from 3% to only 1.5% so I do not know where your position comes from in terms of the financing aspect of this. Some tweaking did occur but the overall state of lending contrary to myth is fine.

As the jobless claims came out today I could hear the hissing of air getting sucked out of this industry as the doom and gloomers point to this and say, see I told you when in fact the numbers will be revised lower, inventories in manufacturing are low so they will be manufacturing their little butts off this quarter and by the time April comes around with the mixed bag of profit reports, the light at the end of the tunnel will not be a train even with more write offs looming I hang my hat on the side that we are bouncing at the bottom now and although we don't know when the turn will come, the bleakness that is being communicated is overstated.

I think advocating real estate as an investment (or your home)  at this time under certain circumstances and market conditions is warranted and you being the professionals in this area I trust will not be bellowing buy buy buy. You strike me as a very thoughtful person but I don't understand why some in this industry wish to focus on the fire and fan it.

So for those professionals that got into this industry post 911 welcome to the "slow down" or little "recession" if that's what you want to call it, since it is the first of its kind you have ever seen but it will get better and we will be waiting for you all on the other-side.

Buyers have a choice. Do they wait for the other lemmings for the market to turn while the smart set picks up the good deals leaving the left overs for the rest or do buyers PATIENTLY with their Realtor evaluate and find that opportunity now?

Good luck have a great year.

 

Feb 01, 2008 03:03 AM
Eric Kodner
Madeline Island Realty - La Pointe, WI
CRS, Madeline Island Realty, LaPointe, WI 54850 -

NAR is a trade association and, to some extent, it is their business to be cheerleaders.  I agree with you that real estate professionals have a responsibility to be counselors to their clients and that may mean giving the bad news along with the good. 

It is misleading to say "rates are great" when many can't get a mortgage.  That's like the grocery store advertising chicken at 49 cents a pound, even though there's none in stock.

 

Feb 01, 2008 03:12 AM
Kai Lani
RE/MAX Kai Lani - Kailua, HI
RE/MAX
I saw Eric's note float by on my e-mail and I just had to comment.   Interest rates are GREAT!  They have seldom been this GREAT.   Having GREAT interest rates has nothing to do with the fact that there are people who can't yet qualify for a loan.   If someone doesn't qualify, they need to look at themselves, not the money markets.   While I understand the analogy, money is available for those who are qualified and those who are qualified can get loans.   Jerry
Feb 01, 2008 03:58 AM
Kirk Williams
Private Venture Capital - Everett, WA

Meyer,

And they shouldn't have. They instinctively knew they were getting in over their head, rolled the dice and lost.

You instinctively know not to step in front of a bus so I am going to take the leap and figure people looking at what they earn vs. the payment that is presented can figure with pencil and paper whether they can make it fly.

I'm sorry I evidently am missing your point. I hear there are some very good prices on yachts 100' or more too but I penciled it out and I am not going to be buying one.

Feb 01, 2008 04:34 AM
Jesse Clifton
Jesse Clifton & Associates - Fairbanks, AK

Bradenton Florida Real Estate - Dan Forbes REALTOR®: Hi, Dan - Thanks for stopping by, Dan!

Richard Lecinski: Hi, Richard - Markets are indeed local... that's exactly my point.

Meyer Leibovitch : Hi, Meyer - I figured as much... and you're absolutely right.

Kirk Williams, #LMA 510-LO-32537: Hi, Kirk - Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mac, which are our two major sources of conventional financing are using risk pricing for everything - not just the jumbo loans, so for some, those changes have pushed them out of the market.  Those that used to get A pricing with a FICO of 620 are now paying a major premium in the form of rates and upward moving MI rates where before they weren't.  The bottom rung is now 640 which isn't a huge difference, but it pushes a big pool of buyers into a different category today.  I do agree the changes at FHA will help, but I've heard more than a few folks say that FHA, who isn't doing risk based pricing say it's something that's in the design stage. Whether it moves from there is an unknown.

Real estate is still a good long term investment... that we certainly agree on.  This slow down in the market isn't the death kneel for the housing sector by any means. But, I think ignoring the negatives or not giving them enough consideration would mean, as agents, we're not providing the level of care we are expected to provide.  With all that said, there are great values to be found right now and as long as buyers understand the short term risks and they're ok with them, they should plow ahead.  For those folks I agree with Jerry that if they wait too long, they will regret it.  Here's hoping we all have a great year!

Eric Kodner CRS, ABR, e-PRO, CLHMS, Madeline Island Real Estate Wisconsin: Hi, Eric - Good to hear from you.  I believe NAR should support our positions in the community, I'm just not crazy about the way they did it with this campaign.  It could have been done in a way that directed  focus to local markets rather than issue a blanket endorsement to buy.  For the folks who can't qualify, the great rates are a moot point.

RE/MAX Kai Lani: Hi, Jerry - 30 year rates here are sitting at 5.5%.  That is without a doubt a great rate. 

Feb 01, 2008 11:14 AM
Ryan Hukill - Edmond
405home @ ERA Courtyard - Edmond, OK
Realtor, Team Lead
Couldn't possibly agree more.  Personally, I'd like to see the NAR use our dues in a more effective manner, such as funding local campaigns that actually adress local markets, rather than increasing and supporting the incorrect idea that many consumers have that real estate is a national thing, rather than local local local, as we all know it to be.  If they continue to make blanket statements about the nations real estate market, how in the world will consumer ever learn otherwise?
Feb 01, 2008 03:45 PM
Jerry Bangerter
RE/MAX Kai Lani - Honolulu, HI
Hi Ryan,  Couldn't let your comment pass.   I don't think the NAR should fund any "local" campaigns as this is the job of your local Association.  Here in Hawaii, the Hawaii Association of Realtors (HAR) did this for awhile with somewhat negative results.   Seems when we funded a candidate who didn't win, and the competitor won, we didn't have any clout when it came to issues near and dear to our heart, and in fact, many times these guys who we didn't support, often worked hard to defeat our issues.   We are now focusing our political money on issues.   It is a real problem.   Hawaii is a liberal and anti-business state and we have found it very difficult to be as effective as we would like regardless.  The real problem is that the members of the HAR themselves simply will not get involved, and that is where the big clout is.   Money or no money, if the realtors would get behind their local leadership and support either a candidate or an issue with their personal involvement, the HAR could swing a big stick.   As it is, we are a paper tiger.   Jerry Bangerter, Prior Chair for the HAR Legislative Committee.   
Feb 02, 2008 04:23 AM
Kathy Anderson
Arizona Luxury & Lifestyle Living - Cave Creek, AZ
Arizona Homes For Sale

 While the idea of it being a great time to sell is a little hard to swallow, I personally don't mind seeing a little rah, rah from the NAR on the buying side of things.  The media has sure done a number with its' blanket 'sky is falling' agenda.  While every market is different, there are many people who are under the mistaken impression that the real estate market is bad everywhere.  Maybe a little rah, rah will spur them into really investigating individual markets.

Congrats on the feature!

Feb 03, 2008 11:41 AM