Home > Blogs > Jason E. Gordon > Mortgage Street Smarts

Mortgage Rate Update 3-14-13: Trends Projections & Today's Best Rates

By Jason E. Gordon

Mortgage and Lending with CMG Mortgage, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

March 14, 2013 04:00 AM

The Producer Price Index (PPI) matched expectations, while stronger than expected Jobless Claims data has hurt Mortgage Backed Security prices this morning. There will be a 30 year Bond Treasury Auction later this morning. Prices opened roughly 0.125 worse in fee this morning as a result.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back nearly 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired. To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze!

Jason E. Gordon - Mortgage Rate Update - www.jasongordon.net

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Thursday 3-14-2013 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Wednesday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing (and will typically warrant a pricing adjustment by most Lenders). Wednesday's IMPROVEMENTnetted a change of 18 basis points (bps).

(hint: upward activity is good, downward activity is bad)

The following chart shows a summary of today's activity:

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Today's Lowest Interest Rates - San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist - Jason E Gordon - www.ApprovingSD.com

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry

FNMA 30-Year:

2.5 Coupon: Open 97.9031 Change -0.2813

3.0 Coupon: Open 102.1719 Change -0.2344

3.5 Coupon: Open 104.9063 Change -0.1250

Treasuries:

5 Year: Open 99.2734 Change -0.1016 Yield 0.9000

10 Year: Open 99.5156 Change -0.2813 Yield 2.0540

30 Year: Open 97.7813 Change -0.4375 Yield 3.2450

Key Economic Data

EUR/USD: Open 1.2942 Change -0.0018

40GBP/USD: Open 1.4961 Change 0.0041

USD/JPY: Open 92.45 Change 0.260

Oil: Open 92.45

Key Economic Data:

Current account for Q4: Actual -110.4b, Consensus -112.8b, Last -107.5b, Revised 112.4b.

Unemployment

Initial claims: Actual: 332k, Consensus 350k, Last 340k, Revised 342k.

Jobless claims 4-week average: Actual 346,75k, Last 348.75k, Revised 349.50k.

Continued jobless claims: Actual 3.024m, Consensus 3.100m, Last 3.094m, Revised 3.113m.

PPI for Feb

Index: Actual 0.7%, Consensus 0.7%, Last 0.2%.

Inflation: Actual 1.7%, Consensus 1.7%, Last 1.4%.

Core month-on-month: Actual 0.2%, Consensus 0.2%, Last 0.2%.

Core year-on-year: Actual 1.7%, Consensus 1.7%, Last 1.8%.

Advice:

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly dropped last week to the lowest level in almost two months, adding to signs the labor market in strengthening. First-time jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 332,000 in the week ended March 9, the fewest since mid January, according to data today from the Labor Department in Washington. The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an increase to 350,000. The four-week average declined to a five-year low. Managers are maintaining staffing levels as consumers sustain spending even after a two percentage-point increase in the payroll tax at the start of the year reduced paychecks. Nonetheless, there remains a risk that the recent pickup in employment will be cut short as federal budget cutbacks prompt companies and government agencies to trim payrolls. Businesses are not cutting their workers -- theres very little reason for them to be cutting workers, Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moodys Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. The economy seems to have done reasonably well in the first quarter, given the fiscal drag. Economists estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 330,000 to 365,000 claims. The Labor Department revised the number of applications for the prior week to 342,000 from an initially reported 340,000.

My position on MBS stays Long.

Good time to average down

(FNMA 2.50 May 97*29 )

I still expect the rates to go back down in the medium to long term.

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

Here is the link to today's video:

http://www.ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html

Jobless claims are better than expected but PPI (Core PPI) was as expected. It looks like sideways will be the order of the day, until we get a peak at tomorrows CPI number. Also, keep in eye out for any surprises later today on the 30 year bond auction. If its bad enough, it could spark some selling.

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist Jason E Gordon

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) and Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.jasongordon.net or www.ApprovingSD.com or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage rates