Date- Feb 5, 2008-
It appears as if the current number of REO listings vs NOD/Foreclosure listings has now tipped toward a higher number of bank owned homes than NOD homes on today's active market, that, combined with the historically low interest rates and the popularity of Solano county as a centrally located, even climate, clean, friendly people, relatively low crime rates, beautiful area with a good steady source of local jobs and commute proximity to even higher paying bay area jobs without the high density living associated with the bay area makes Solano county real estate market's outlook look possibly a little rosier today than it did in say, September of 2007.
The banks are now dealing with offers coming in on short sale homes, instead of collecting the offers and letting them lay around gathering dust for months on someone's desk, the banks are carefully considering the offers of the buyers and making concessions such as offering money for SOME closing costs up front, but still generally selling as-is whereas. Sometimes, offers were sitting there for weeks or even months in the fall, whereas now they are turning some around in 24 hours!
The layer of buyers that were coming in to see lenders with their pockets empty, asking sellers to pay all of their closing costs, getting 100% loans that had low rates for the first years, getting qualified for loans that they could not repay, having credit scores that drooped below 600 in some cases, those buyers are no longer able to come in and buy the starter homes on the market. They are best advised to stay where they are at, save their money, pay off their credit debt and try again in the near future. FNMAE and HUD are working on ways to offer more loans to more people in a more secure manner that has fewer ways to fail. They are considering down payment programs for these buyers. They are slowly being replaced right now with foreign investors and buyers who have very good credit, or cash, ones who have been waiting to buy until it was a buyer's market, saving their money for a down payment, getting more choices such as homes with pools and location, location, location. These new buyers are getting lower interest rates on conventional 30 year loans with payments that are amortized and are equally spaced over 30 years. They are also enjoying a window in time that is precious and nobody knows how long they will enjoy their time to enjoy the marketplace and browse and consider, study and ponder their choices.
Yes, Virginia, it IS a BUYER'S market. Generally speaking, they don't usually last. The reason is the law of supply and demand. If there is a good supply of good homes in good condition in good locations with good amenities, buyers will eventually buy them and then there will be fewer choice homes. Once the bulk of these desirable homes are gone, then the law of supply and demand sets in and it is replaced with the fact that the supply dwindled and the choicest homes that are left will again receive the most attention, supply goes down, demand goes up, buyer's market moves into the direction of a mixed market. Unless a natural disaster, industry slow down, political unrest or calamity causes a particular region to become depressed and multitudes of jobs are lost at once, the oversupply of homes on the market will not remain constant. Solano county continues to grow jobs, and not just minimum wage jobs, but higher paying jobs for trained and educated workers, this attracts people to the area, combined with the large community of people who work at Travis Air Force base, not only military but the large civilian force out there, Solano county is the second largest employer in Solano county, many large corporations have plants here or are home-based here, and more groups are planning to move here such as State Compensation Insurance with 750+ employees expected to relocate here in the next 2 years. Solano county is most likely to continue to grow in the coming years.
Currently there are some really lovely homes on the market. They are not the homes that you see going into escrow right now. There are some homes in really sad shape on the market right now. Buyers are looking for a real bargain, they want the largest house they can buy for the least amount of money, condition is not so important to them right now...price is the most important factor right now, size second, location is third, condition is 4th. I urge anyone buying a home in ANY market to get ALL home inspections they feel would give them the best idea of the condition of that home, regardless of the price, some "issues" are just not worth the cost to fix them. With interest rates so low, buyers buying the lowest priced homes and getting the super low rates are pulling in some fantastic deals as long as they are being made aware of the condition of that home and their costs to repair them.
Call me or email me today to receive a weekly updated list of REO NOD and NOS homes in Solano county.
Barbara Adams, REALTOR Kappel and Kappel Inc 707-673-7500 BarbAdamsRealtor AT Yahoo.com
The lovely homes are selling now, early June 2008. The lowest priced homes are receiving gobs of attention and getting multiple offers. Homes that have not sold in recent months and have higher than average price tags sit and lose their new listing luster, while new listings get all the attention now. Buyers are weary of the tattered and battered bank owned homes, tired of seeing the sadness and destruction that frustrated persons have put upon the once elegant homes that originally sold for thousands more than their current price tags.
Homes with no conditions of sale, owned by persons who merely want to sell so they can move to another sized home or transferred out of the area or retiring are getting a better share of attention as they are mostly lovingly cared for homes with no torrid history of destruction or failure to maintain or having no imminent threats of tax or mechanics liens on them.
Appraisers are doing their best, nobody envys their job.
Buyers are out doing what they can to find the best deal in their favorite location, only to be met by other buyers in the same mindset.
Looking to spring 2009, the election and inaugaration will be behind us, Solano county and Vacaville in particular will face a unique challenge, one that is unprecedented and most people don't realize what the scenario will be in North Village at Vaca Valley Parkway.
Kaiser Hospital, Genentech AND State Compensation Insurance will all be inviting in their new employees and potential future employees for job interviews and hiring of high-paying professional jobs in the medical and high tech, and insurance fields. These employees bring their families and associates to the area, most will relocate or transfer from other areas such as South San Francisco, the greater Bay area and all over the state of California to fill these positions, State Compensation expects to ultimately employ over 750 people in their solar powered office buildings currently being constructed just south of Genentech off I505, Genentech will be transferring and hiring many people to work in the newly expanded area under review right now for certification, Kaiser had delayed the opening of the Vacaville hospital until May 2009 with literally hundreds of employees either transferring in or being hired.
This will all occur within months of right now and with FEW new homes being started and declining inventory of re-sale homes, the supply of available homes will dwindle, UNLESS ALL of these people plan on renting homes, then the local rental market will skyrocket...SOMETHING will change, if you don't think anything will change, please email me with your reasoning behind that.
The opportunity exists right now with the historically low rates that will not last as Bernanke states he will NOT lower the FED rate anytime soon, the only way to go is up on that one....unemployment rates will decline in the Vacaville area and if there are not enough homes available in Vacaville, the wise ones will look to neighboring Dixon which is a straight shot 8 minute commute from the Vaca Valley Parkway area.
Another retail endeavor about to be launched in the same area as Kaiser and Genentech is a new FASHION MALL.
Right now there are 389 single family listings in all areas in all price ranges Vacaville currently for sale today June 7, 2008. A number of them are "short sale" status, recently several banks have declined to participate in this type of a transaction, so this reduces again the number of actual homes for sale in Vacaville. Take away the homes in foreclosure or short sale status and you have 281 homes that are for sale in Vacaville at this time in all price ranges that have no sale conditions. The inventory in Vacaville could tip so easily with such a large influx of new employees to the area at one time, buyers who believe they have all the time in the world right now, may want to research some of this information for themselves.
How this compares to the same criteria for August 27, 2006 for all sale condition homes:
572 Vacaville ACTIVE SFR listings
72 Days on market average
$526,782 Average list price
$297/sf average asking price
1812sf Average size
This may help you understand what is truly going on in the local Solano county Vacaville market. All parties need to understand the full picture here.