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 The treasury department periodically holds auctions to sell US Treasuries to fund the government debt.  Today they held one for 30 year treasury bonds and to put it simply, buyers didn't show up.  It was the worst auction results EVER for the treasury department with 90% of the bonds going to primary dealers.  Basically the bond market is giving the middle finger to the government over their projected increase in deficits and bail out plans which would both require issuing significant amounts of new debt.

The result was that this instantly spiked rates on the ten year treasury bond, which will in turn spike mortgage rates.  Within a half hour of the auction results the yield on the was up to 3.81% or almost a 5% increase.  That's a monster of a move and there's reason it may continue over the next several weeks.  This basically is thwarting any cuts to the fed funds target rate, as the FED has no control over long term rates which are much more important to real estate and the rest of the economy.

This now shows the pickle the FED and government is in.  Attempt to significantly bail things out and the bond market will respond by ramping debt costs which will increase both government borrowing costs and long interest rates.  This is what will make an S&L style bailout unlikely.  

See also:Fed target rate down, mortgage rates up

 

 

15 Comments on Bond market puts the smackdown on the US Treasury - Rates up

FEB
07
2008
267,859 Points 72 Featured Posts Outside Blog
"Basically the bond market is giving the middle finger to the government over their projected increase in deficits and bail out plans which would both require issuing significant amounts of new debt." I hope nobody expected anything different. Good thing for pension funds that real estate is slipping - we know that will return faster than long term bonds but now they are scared silly to invest in real estate. It's a fun ride we're on in this carnival of economic uncertainty. I've heard of the butterfly effect but isn't this more like the elephant in the room effect? (Wholesale rates had already started up by 10:00AM in case you didn't see it.)
2:09pm • #1
296,965 Points 3 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
I wish people truly understood how the rates are determined. They hear that the fed cut rates a 1/2% and they think wow it was 5.5% now it's only 5%. I think a very slim number of people understand how it truly works.
2:25pm • #2
200,155 Points 27 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master
Yep - they are going to be on a swing set for the next few weeks.  I like to think that when we really hit a hard bottom of resisitance (like we did today) we will bounce back up nicely - but unless the Fed cuts to the 2 year note rate (like 2%) that's not likely... and we thought LAST year was rough!
2:48pm • #3
880,023 Points 210 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Matt: I know that just because they cut stuff doesn't necessarily mean that it goes like that for lenders... How are rates deteremined?....when I look at daily mtg rates here it is all over the place with all different scenarios. And with this in mind.. just how much does it affect the real estate industry when these types of auctions produce little or no effect in attempts to bail out the Savings and Loan co's?   

 

P.S. I'm trying to learn :)

2:51pm • #4
1,091,557 Points 57 Featured Posts

No one simply "sets" rates they are determined by the market through supply and demand.  The market or buy and sell bonds or other debt instruments, the more someone is willing to pay for a bond the lower the yield (rate).  If there is less demand for bonds, supply and demand says people will pay less, thus a higher yield or rate.  

What happened with this auction is just that, the US treasury attempted to auction debt to fund the US government.  Because few buyers turned up, the bonds sold for a low price, thus high yields.  While not strictly based on long term treasury rate, mortgage rates correlate very well to their yields.

Very few buyers came to the auction BECAUSE of the belief the government may try to bail things out.  A bail out would require the government issuing more debt, lots more.  This would increase the supply of bonds, lowering their price and thus increasing the yield (rate)  That's why bailout attempts will likely to cause mortgage rates to actually go up.

3:10pm • #5
880,023 Points 210 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master
Well, I appreciate your in depth explanation Matt. That really helped me to understand more on why things are like they are and are going to be. It's nice to have some info...though I would still say "it's in my opinion....although you will get better information from the LO" :)
3:22pm • #6
121,054 Points 12 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Matt, I believe there is a much simpler reason that there won't be an S&L type bailout: The S&Ls were federally insured (FSLIC) so they had to do something then, but the current batch of insolvent lenders are not federally insured. The government could and should just turn its back. If they want to "justify" this by saying they can't raise the money in the debt markets that will only be posturing.

Bill Roberts

3:36pm • #7
865,261 Points 50 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp
I would love to see the government actually noticing that taking a sharper turn down the path we are already on is not the way to change the path...  Economic policy overhaul...
4:26pm • #10

Matt,
we took a hit in mortgage rates today.  It was kind of funny watching all the text mesages from pricing.  We even had one that said rates were worsening but they could not yet tell by how much.  We ended up with a 0.850 increase for the day.  I guess the foreign investors that we count so much on did not show for todays party.  aj

6:56pm • #12
Thank you so much for such an informative post.
7:21pm • #13
Thanks for explaining all of this in layman's terms.  Sure makes it a lot easier to understand.
7:24pm • #14
FEB
08
2008
208,442 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Matt,  I wish that more people understood the concept.  Actually, because of one of your recent posts I decided to do an explanatory article for my next newsletter and will probably post it here as well.  Thanks for the info and explanation.  It should teach quite a few people more about the market and rates.
5:06pm • #15
FEB
09
2008
243,154 Points 25 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Matt,

The more I learn, the more scared I become.  Being a stork wasn't so bad.  I kinda miss my head being buried in that cold sand. 

How do we stop the bloodletting?

1:31am • #16
FEB
10
2008
569,822 Points 100 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
Government seems to be a lost at this point.  Being an election year they will continue to make a lot of noise.
11:49pm • #17

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Matt Heaton

Bothell, WA

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Timu Corp - CEO, ActiveRain - Co-founder

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My ramblings about growing ActiveRain, the real estate industry and something I follow very closely, credit markets.  Why "The ActiveRain Addiction"?

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