the fedFirst a little history.  The Federal Reserve System (commonly referred to as The Fed) is the central banking system of the US and is made up of 12 regional banks.  The Fed manages the nation's money supply via its use of monetary policy.  This refers to The Feds ability to influence the availability of money and credit which affects interest rates and therefore the economy

Are we good so far?  For our purposes here we are going to have a limited discussion and only touch upon one area of the monetary policies. 

Banks are required by The Fed to have a certain portion of the total value of their demand accounts on hand.  If a bank falls below this level, it can borrow the funds from another bank that has a surplus with The Fed.  These are typically overnight loans.  The interest rate on these borrowed moneyfunds is determined by the banks themselves but is influenced by The Fed via the Federal Funds Rate.  These are more closely aligned with short term interest rates.  This is the rate that we've been hearing so much about in the news.  It must be understand that this is a target rate set by The Fed.  The rate that is actually paid by one bank to another is negotiated between the two parties.  This has nothing to do with mortgage rates. 

Now we come to mortgage ratesThe Fed DOES NOT control mortgage rates.  Mortgage rates are market determined and are on the long term end of the interest rate spectrum.  These are generally determined by the bond market.  It's a financial market where debt securities are bought and sold.  And this brings us to Mortgage Backed Securities.  You may not have heard of these specifically, but you've most likely heard of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and to a lesser extent Ginnie Mae.  Basically what they do is package many mortgages together and issue them as MBS's.  In order to get investors to buy these, they must pay rates of interest that are competitive with alternative interest-paying investments such as Treasury bonds.  There is a correlation between mortgage rates and long term interest rates.  Long-term rates are governed by the overall health of the economy, and the expectations of future growth.

As you can see one is long term whereas the other is short term.  So when you hear that The Fed cut the rate, you can not always expect an equal and immediate change in the mortgage rate.  In fact, in many cases the opposite has occurred.

 

For information on Central Florida, Orange County and Seminole County real estate and Central Florida, Orange County and Seminole County homes for sale in addition to Central Florida, Orange County and Seminole County relocation contact Marc Grossman, your Central Florida, Orange County and Seminole County Realtor @ 407-463-1034.  Additional information is available for Seminole County real estate, Orange County real estate, West Volusia County and South Lake County.

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46 Comments on The Fed Rate and Mortgage Rate – What Does This All Mean?

FEB
09
2008
847,096 Points 213 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Thanks Marc.  We seem to have a knee jerk reaction when we hear that the Fed lowered "the rate".  Many immediately expect mortage interest rates to come down accordingly.

Of course, it doesn't happen.  I have to chuckle when I hear one of the financial "experts" discuss the Fed rate in connection with mortgage rates. 

Fact is, lately, it's almost impossible to connect the present day mortgage rate to the Fed action.  Now, what's going to happen if MBIA gets their rating reduced. 

Care to speculate on that domino. 

Good information.  Thanks for posting financial stuff that we can understand. 

10:55am • #1
170,962 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Lenn - Thank you very much.  The thought of MBIA getting their rating reduced is quite scary.  As you gathered there will be a domino effect that will affect many.  But I do expect this to happen.  With that I expect risk factors to go up and obviously mortgage rates as well.  So they're trying to sell 1B in stock to try to keep their rating.  Let's see who's going to buy that.  Oh, I know, the banks.  Because if MBIA loses their rating, then there will be more writedowns for the banks.  The scarier part is that I possibly see more gov't intervention.  Just went to their site.  Love their logo 'Wisdom in Action.'  Ouch!
11:23am • #2
480,278 Points 151 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Marc...  what an excellent explanation that so many fail to understand.  I am going to add this to this blog post. Mortgage Interest Rates - Up or Down?   I think it's a great ending to a somewhat confusing issue. And in regards one of Lenn's comment, I often cringe when a financial expert on tv mentions both Fed Rates and Interest Rates within a 2 minute period. Especially when they don't break down the difference. Hence, leaving the average consumer more confused or assuming that one follows the other. And I am flagging this, because I think this is a worthy feature. 

jeff belonger
3:08pm • #3
170,962 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Jeff - Thanks for your comment and adding that link.  And I see that I got flagged, that's very kind of you to suggest such.  I tried to make this as simple as possible without giving too much information to confuse the matter or too little to not understand it.  I gather by yours and Lenn's comments that I've succeeded. 

In regard to the media, I agree with both Lenn & yourself.  But the problem that I see is that the people reporting do not have a good enough grasp of the subject matter to properly write about it and that's where the confusion comes from.  Like with anything else either you educate yourself prior to saying something or keep your mouth shut if you don't know.  Unfortunately, too many people have diarrhea of the mouth.  I guess they can say that about my writing - Oh Well!

3:39pm • #4
222,407 Points 3 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Thanks for writing this post.  This is a very good one that I really enjoyed reading. Just because Fed drop interest rates don't necessarily mean mortgage rates are going to drop. Great post.
4:00pm • #5
410,199 Points 72 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Marc...

I have had a very long hard physical labor kind of day. I'm pooped. In fact I do believe I'm too pooped to pop :)

If it's okay with you I am going to park until tomorrow.

Thank you for not charging me the going rate on parked comments :)

TLW...ROAR!

4:10pm • #6
224,760 Points 2 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Marc,

Nice explan ation.  We all get optimistic when the Fed cuts rates --Just wish it was that easy.

4:13pm • #7
170,962 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Lanre - Thank you very much.  In fact many times the mortgage rates have done the opposite of what the fed funds rate did.

TLW - You can park and/or hijack anytime your wish.  Your visiting is more than enough.

Diane - So do I, but...

4:16pm • #8
296,805 Points 100 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Hi Marc, Thanks for a well written easy to understand explanation of how interest rates are determined.  Very worthy of a Feature & a bookmark too. :)
4:16pm • #9
Great job explaining the the Fed RAte and Mortgage Rate. 
4:27pm • #10
233,235 Points 30 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Well done, Marc.  Easily digestible information for a complex subject is rare.  This will make sense to the man on the street, which, ultimately, is all that really matters.  Bravo.
4:30pm • #11
127,965 Points 1 Featured Post
Marc- Great explanation. When the Fed cuts their rates, it adversely affects the bond market at times and therefore mortgage rates increase. Does this sum it up?
4:36pm • #12
1,088,618 Points 57 Featured Posts

Great post, and a great explanation to something even many in the mortgage industry don't get. 

As far as the monolines like MBIA and ABK getting ratings cut, it's gonna happen, even the ratings agencies such as Moody's have said unequivocally it's coming and a capital raise won't stop it.  I think they're doing there best to give lots of warning ahead of time, in hopes the market will adjust (which it isn't) and lessen the impact.  They cut a couple of the smaller credit insurers such as SCA this week, a warm up.  The effect is likely going to be very wide reaching, and it's hard to even speculate on it's extent at this point. 

I don't see successful government intervention here, but I do expect it in the case of the largest mortgage insures, Freddie, Fannie and Ginnie.

4:37pm • #13
170,962 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Lola - Thank you very much and glad that I could assist.

Jimmy - Thank you.

Paul - That was my point.  I plan on using this post in my next newsletter.

Mark - Very good and this is sometimes true as it was with the 75 basis point cut in January in which mortgage rates actually rose 50 basis.

Matt - I didn't think that would stop the cuts either - the raising of capital.  I do appreciate your knowledge and input.  I do see where you are coming from as to the gov't intervention.  I'm just thinking here and it boggles the mind what's going to happen when MBIA and their ilk get their rates cut.  It's not even going to be a ripple effect, there are going to be some major dominos.  The banks, the investors, the markets - Geez!

5:05pm • #14
139,046 Points Localism Sponsor
Thanks for do a very good job of explaing this. I think many of us had some ideas but not all the details.
5:19pm • #15

Marc, great post.  I know everybody here was asked the question when the feds lowered the interest rate 2 weeks ago, are mortgage rates going to drop.  I too was one of those that didnt understand what affects does the fed cutting the rate have to do with mortgage rates.  One thing is for sure that i knew that the mortgage rates were not in line with the feds rates.  I will be adding this to my favorites.  I have a clear understanding of whats going on now..

5:21pm • #16
104,740 Points 1 Featured Post
Thanks Marc. That was a very good explaination of the relationship of the FED rate to mortgage rates.
6:14pm • #17
244,815 Points 15 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Marc, thank you, thank you, thank you, for explaining so well something that I SHOULD understand but don't...I just glaze over sometimes and this was straight forward, to the point and understandable even by me :)
6:36pm • #18

Marc,

 

Thanks sooo much for this great insite!!!

I want to copy it into my presentation portfolio, if that's ok!!!! (credit to you, of course!!)

Bernie

6:39pm • #19
255,818 Points 1 Featured Post Outside Blog
Thanks for posting a concise and right on explanation of what these rates are.  So many people including those in the industry just don't understand how all this comes together.
6:40pm • #20
271,088 Points 41 Featured Posts Outside Blog
MARC - You did a great job of explaining this in very simple terms.  People should realize that the only benefit that is directly derived from short term interest rate cuts are those for home equity lines of credit, credit cards and some auto loans.  I'm glad that this got featured!  Great post.
7:36pm • #21
114,667 Points 9 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Marc, I've seen other posts on this (and posted one myself), but it bears repeating. And, truth be told, you said it better than I did. :) Thanks for banging that drum.
9:18pm • #22
Very true, there is always a lot of confusion regarding the relationship between mortgage rates and the fed funds rate.....
10:09pm • #23
Marc, thanks for sharing, great info that is all to often misunderstood.
11:24pm • #24

Thanks Marc,

Now can you please explain this to my Canadian relatives.

 

John Hurbon

Tierra Antigua Realty

Benson Horse Property 

 I LOVE LONGWOOD FLORIDA ----------------

 

John Hurbon Benson Arizona
11:43pm • #25
FEB
10
2008
121,298 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog
That was a wonderful post. You broke it down great. I definitely need to brush up more on the Fed and such.
1:05am • #26
266,816 Points 59 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Fantastic Mr. Grossman!  SOMEBODY should post this in a major media publication and put it on the first page...right beside all the other Mortgage News going around.  Well studied and well put man, you taught me a little bit of something....

Belonger was right in flagging this, wonderful 'freaking' article.  We really could structure a College Course around this very entry into the Blogosphere.  Yet, I'm sure you are like me...why wait for College?  Good work Mr. Marc!

2:30am • #27
214,268 Points 2 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Congratulations on the feature post Marc!smileysVery well done post as always!
6:52am • #28
167,395 Points 12 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Marc, The Feature Star really looks good on you. You really deserve it. This post really explains it very nicely.
6:56am • #29
170,962 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Richard - And it's not as complicated as some may think either.

Freddie - Glad this helped you.

Wayne - Thanks, but people needed to really know that there isn't a relationship between the two.

Lisa - What this 'even by me' crap.  I don't believe that for a minute. 

Bernie - Go for it.  I hope that it'll help.

Rob - Thank you, but I think it's important for all of us to know this info.  As realtors we need to understand these concepts and how they relate to our industry.

Adam - You are exactly correct and thank you very much.

Joey - Thank you for that compliment.  I tried to keep it simple and concise.  Bang away.

Trace - And it's all of our jobs to understand the difference.  How else can we explain it to others.

Brian - Thank you kindly.

John - I could try...  Glad you like my neck of the woods.

Christy - It's so very important and quite interesting.  Thank you.

Jason - Thank you, thank you, thank you.  I humbly bow before you!

BLR Guy - Thank you.

Matt - Thanks, that's so kind of you.

7:35am • #30

Great job explaining the the Fed RAte and Mortgage Rate.

 Robert Walton
Loan Officer
Flagstar Bank
704-671-8670
http://www.flagstarloans.com/rwalton

Building relationships that last.

8:03am • #31
170,962 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Robert,  Thank you very much, but you should alter your signature.  I don't think it abides by the AR rules.
8:10am • #32
189,924 Points Outside Blog
Good information. Quite a bit to take in all at once. Thank you.
9:25am • #34
170,962 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Emily - Glad you enjoyed.

Robert - Thanks.  The links should also help to possibly better understand how all this works.

11:42am • #35
Marc:  Great post... like Lenn said, we'll have to wait to see what happens with MBIA.  
6:18pm • #36
170,962 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Jan - I agree, but it's not going to be a pretty sight.  And goodness knows what kind of fallout we are going to see from that.
6:43pm • #37
FEB
17
2008
425,024 Points 48 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Marc,

Congratulations on the feature.  Well explained!

Mike in Tucson

10:56pm • #38
FEB
18
2008
170,962 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Mike - I appreciate that coming from you.
7:34am • #39
FEB
21
2008
I'm glad someone understands how things work and I'm especially happy that even the common man can understand your explaination. Great job! Thankls! 
Jeff
8:38am • #40

Marc,

Great post... I'm printing this out and giving it to my customers that asked about rate adjustments and the fed cuts rates... real pro job... thank you...

Rick

8:58am • #41

Marc,

This is awesome detail!  Thank you for setting the record straight.

9:37am • #42
170,962 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Jeff - Glad this could be of assistance to you.  Thanks for the compliment

Rick - Be my guest and thank you.

Sherri - I felt that it had to be done.  I realized that not only is it confusing to the general public that also realtors are confused as well.  This is something that we should know to be able to properly assist our clients.

9:59am • #43
FEB
23
2008
184,930 Points 2 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Allow me to chime in here and say that it's good to have someone else agree with what is correct and true!
1:18pm • #44
JUN
26
2008
1 Featured Post

Excellent explanation of the Fed rate and interest rates!

12:36pm • #45

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Marc Grossman, GRI - Greater Orlando Real Estate Broker

Longwood, FL

More about me…

Marc It Sold!

Address: P. O. Box 160521, Altamonte Springs, FL, 32716

Cell Phone: (407) 463-1034

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This blog is an avenue to relate information and sites that may be of interest to you in regard to real estate. There will be miscellaneous meanderings about me and opinions in regard to Central Florida and Orlando homes for sale and real estate in particular. Get great free widgets at Widgetbox!



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