default mapI don't normally post pictures this big but this one needs it.  It's pretty clear where the red zones are here:  CA, NV, AZ and FL.  This is the 2007 foreclosure rate map for the entire United Stated (by county I believe).  All of OH, half of MI and most of TN and CO are also pretty hard hit.

I'm not sure the cause and effect on CO and TN, but the OH and MI problems seems to stick out here as the steel belt, er, rust belt.  In the commercial world I have not looked at Michigan in a long time because long before the subprime crisis it had alreayd been blacklisted by most lenders for commercial properties.  Other than that, it seems that it is clear that there is a notable concentration in urban areas compared to rural counties (there is next to nothing of note in the strip that runs from ND south all the way through TX to Mexico).  I guess farmers didn't get so caught up in this subprime mortgage craze...

The map is courtesy of Torto Weaton, the research arm of CBRE, though they aren't the original source, they just added to it.  Their addition to this map that is not residential related is those 12 black down arrows.  They are the only industrial real estate markets in the country that are down from 2006 in Torto Wheaton's rent index.  That's a big difference from the residential market, whre there is a lot more red on this than those black arrows.  The commercial market continues to hold up reasonably well, especially for rental rates, even despite a liquidity crunch in the lending markets.

 

50 Comments on How Red is Your Part of the World?

FEB
09
2008
236,094 Points 9 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
I hadn't seen that one before - thanks for posting it - looks like we are a little pink in this part...
10:44pm • #1
2 Featured Posts
Gabriel, I'm in Des Moines Iowa. Pink spot in the middle of Iowa. About three years ago I started a daily foreclosures list, pulling all new ones off the MLS and batch sending them off. There used to be some days when their weren't any. That hasn't happend now for almost two years. I showed three foreclosures today. Some days they are 5-10% of listings.
10:48pm • #2
13 Featured Posts

Courtney - I'm surprised that it's not darker pink by you, but time will tell if things get better before they get worse?

Matt, at least it's not red by you, but even in a pink area I guess there are too many.

10:55pm • #3
412,228 Points 2 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Hello Gabriel! My world in Danville Ca is not red. Our transit, schools and climate protect values.

11:10pm • #4
130,381 Points Localism Sponsor
Great post, I wonder what the map looked like two years ago.
11:44pm • #5
208,483 Points 2 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Wow..great map How accurate or up to-date is it? It seems the West is in a Sea of Red ink, along with the Midwest and Florida. Texas looks like they missed this Storm for once. Some great buying opportunities in the Red Zone if you have Cash!
11:54pm • #6
FEB
10
2008
240,122 Points 21 Featured Posts Outside Blog
It seems to correspond to the weather. Freaky.
12:22am • #7
114,537 Points 9 Featured Posts Outside Blog

YEA! Go Riverside County, California! I knew we could do it. :)

Hey, today's foreclosures are tomorrow's great first-time buyer joints.

2:09am • #9
4 Featured Posts

Yes, I get to survive living in a red state.  Thanks for sharing, this map is very detailed.

3:51am • #10
358,853 Points 59 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
Gabriel, that's a great visual of the foreclosure crisis.  Thanks for posting the information and the map.
6:17am • #11
111,874 Points 15 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Being in Central Virginia I'm just BLUE!  I think this is the first time I'm happy and blue at the same time!
6:20am • #12
7 Featured Posts
That is very enlightening... thanks for sharing.  We are not doing bad here in NH!
6:24am • #13
316,865 Points 45 Featured Posts Outside Blog

That's quite a telling map about the foreclosure rates around the country.  I saw that map on a couple other sites, but those sites had no text with them, so I sort of glossed right over them.  Thanks for writing about this here, and bringing this map to our attention.  Hopefully some of those really red areas will be getting a little lighter very soon.........

Ann

7:00am • #14
Thank you for posting this.  Most buyers are coming to Charleston, SC from the areas having trouble, which of course effects home sales here! 
7:02am • #15
224,760 Points 2 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
This is very interesting and I thank you for posting it.  Sure shows the proof of what is going on.  I think that some of the more 'blue" states may begin to change colors as this all spreads.
7:31am • #17
177,802 Points Outside Blog
I'm on the western side of Mich. Prices have decreased. Good information to know.
7:37am • #18
422,978 Points 36 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Gabriel,

It appears there is a concentration around metropolitan areas...curiously I would like to see this compared to the blue/red map in the last presidential election!!! In any event , nice post for 'bookmarking'! Thanks,   Fran

8:07am • #19
102,259 Points 3 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Wow, I am in Tennessee and I am surprised that we are as pink as this map indicates!
8:56am • #20
4 Featured Posts Outside Blog Hit Router
I am in the thick of the red with Metro Detroit.  When I first started with my company, two teams did only foreclosures and were not that busy - now they are going crazy, three or more closings in a day.
9:23am • #21
473,837 Points 41 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
A good deal of Northern Virginia is getting the declining market flag.  I'm waiting on an appraisal now to see if the VA buyer gets zapped. 
9:23am • #22

Gabriel, Thanks for posting the map, I've known for sometime that Florida forgot to put on the sunscreen!

Susan, Are the values still dropping like a rock in Northport?

9:41am • #23
278,235 Points 29 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
This is a great map, thanks for sharing it!
9:51am • #24
14 Featured Posts
Looks like we're pretty red here in Los Angeles.  Not so surprising considering the huge appreciation the last several years.
10:47am • #25
123,968 Points 3 Featured Posts Outside Blog
That is extremely interesting. Where did you get it? I'd love to get a printable copy. Thanks.....
11:44am • #26
130,672 Points 13 Featured Posts
I'm in the red area of CA. Current stat is that 1 in 88 homes in the state is in foreclosure. In our county (Riverside) it's 1 in 43. In our town (Murrieta) it's 1 in 9. Nice. And 75% + of that is due to fraud and/or greed. Thanks for the map.
12:53pm • #27
402,573 Points 72 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Gabriel...

I have decided to keep my rose color glasses handy.

They accessorize well with our market :)

TLW...ROAR! 

1:18pm • #28
139,328 Points 13 Featured Posts
I am surprised with as pink as Marion county Oregon is on that map that Salem gets ranked in the top 10 real estate markets.  I expect it to get a little pinker soon...
1:32pm • #29
13 Featured Posts

Yes, I think Floridians forgot their mortgage ARM sunscreen.  Joey, how true it is, today's forclosures are very probably tomorrow's best (long-term) flips.  It certainly is enlightening for a lot of people to see this visually, and it puts a lot into perspective. 

To answer someone's question on this, I don't know the original source of the map.  I got it from a weekly research paper from Torto Wheaton, a free, subscription based service for commercial investment brokers, analysts and investors.  They took it from whatever the original source was and added the black "down" arrows to show where industrial (namely warehouse) markets were down from 2006, whereas the rest of the country for that product was UP - not the same as the residential world at all.  I think I'll add that clarification above...

3:46pm • #30
I could not see the Maryland area to well, however this report is looks pretty accurate. Thanks for sharing.
4:00pm • #31
121,298 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog
We are in the pink too. Wow....Florida and California are almost completely red. That is truly sad to see. I don't think it really hits you until you see something like that. 
4:00pm • #32
1 Featured Post
There's my poor Atlanta...so many bit off more than they could chew.  And now I'm in Baltimore!
4:51pm • #33

Very interesting map, thank you for sharing

Chris

5:35pm • #34
Localism Sponsor
Yes, here in Florida is high the number of foreclosures, scarry numbers
5:47pm • #35
Wow!! Cali and Florida are red hot!! Charlotte is doing pretty well too. The local news paper ran a story on Beazer a while back and now their packing up and leaving.
7:35pm • #36
342,120 Points Outside Blog
This is a good resource. Thanks for sharing it with everyone.
10:01pm • #37
FEB
11
2008

Great info.  I thank you for taking your time to post this valuable info.  I hope all others can use this to their advantage.

Thanks again,

Adam

http://www.adamaffleck.com/

 

http://www.atlanticrealtysolutions.com/

7:17am • #38
110,135 Points 26 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Wow Gabriel, kind of sobering to see this map. I should not have been surprised at how red Ohio was but I guess seeing it like this (and not related to an election prediction) was sobering.  It is starting now to affect all house values in my county.  Some communities more than others.

There were states very red that surprised me.  Your analysis about Ohio is pretty accurate. The only thing I will add is foreign banks who came in to our area without having ever done business here before and set up marketing for too good to be true programs...and they were.  So you add the predatory stuff to the rust belt economy and you get a red state. 

11:21am • #39
4 Featured Posts
Wow!  What a great map.  Thank you for sharing!
11:44am • #40
13 Featured Posts
Carole, I think you're the only Ohio comment so far and yes, it is not what's making the news like CA or FL.  For everyone else, indeed it is quite sobering, and really a bit disappointing, isn't it?
11:21pm • #41
FEB
12
2008
5 Featured Posts

What a great visual. Thank you for posting it. I am a information geek (and a visual person as well) and I think this map is fascinating. Now I have a clear picture of what areas are having challenges. Thanks again.

6:00pm • #42
FEB
14
2008
This map is a wonderful visual aid. It really puts things in perspective for us.
1:53am • #43
It is amazing how different areas of our country are affected differently! Thank you for sharing.
2:26am • #44
Thank you for sharing this visual! It is amazing how some areas are hit badly with this problem.
3:15am • #45
FEB
18
2008
5 Featured Posts
I live in the foreclosure market here in Fla,, this was no surprise to me..my only surprise is that we were not deep deep red, very deep red....We are looking for a 2 year shake out...nice post...If you have investors looking for deals, call me...vacant land is beginning to float to the top for bids now...
7:52am • #46
13 Featured Posts
it's amazing, Mike, how quickly the vultures swoop in, though some are still saying they are afraid of "catching a falling knife" - is it possible that prices have alreay bottomed after such a short time?
9:22am • #47
1 Featured Post
We're holding our own in Louisville.  Yes, there are pockets of high foreclosure rates (I stumbled upon a neighborhood tragically rife with 'em last week), and we are still not out of the woods, but I think we are going to beat the national averages and survive...
11:57pm • #48
FEB
20
2008
854,100 Points 68 Featured Posts Outside Blog

That is one scary map and it amazes me the detail of it and how some areas are completly un-affected by the foreclosure market. You would think listening to the media the complete map would have been red and bleeding in to Mexico.

Thanks for sharing,

6:21pm • #49
FEB
23
2008
13 Featured Posts
Yes, Todd, can you believe the media might have overblown a story?!?!?!
11:36pm • #50

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Gabriel Silverstein, SIOR

Manhattan, NY

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Angelic Real Estate

Address: 100 East Huron Street, Suite 4904, Chicago, IL, 60611

Office Phone: (212) 444-8520

Cell Phone: (646) 727-0837

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This blog is where I explore, comment on and even rant about industry issues for commercial and corporate real estate professionals and occasionally throw out thoughts on the residential side of the world as well (why, since we don't deal with residential? I guess because nobody can stop us from doing so and as this latest subprime-primed recession proves, housing matters even if you're not a house jockey).


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