FANNIE MAE DEFIES LOGIC!!

                                        * * * * WARNING, HARD CARE REAL ESTATE TALK * * * *

THEY HAVE RATED MCLEAN, IN FAIRFAX COUNTY, VIRGINIA, A HIGH RISK AREA for mortgage financing.

The median income for McLean is about $128,000.  I say about because most of the reporting sources are using old income data.  The average income in McLean for families with children is about $222,918.  I suspect that if income data for some areas in McLean was available, it would show incomes in the average $350,000 range. 

The average list price for all homes, detached single family, town homes and condos is $1,814,000.  Single family detached is about $2,039,000. 

From the Washington Post:  In late January, a Zip code for McLean -- a high-income, high-cost residential community and home of mortgage investment giant Freddie Mac -- was rated D, or high-risk, on the Web site.  Where does Fannie Mae get their data?? 

If families with incomes in the over $222,000 range are considered high risk, how is Fannie Mae going to rate home buyers in the $50,000??

I understand also that Countryside is rating vast areas of the country "high risk".  Seems to me that the only "risk" associated with Countrywide is that they will go out of business before a buyer can close on their loan.

McLean is home to the highest ranked public school cluster in Northern Virginia. 

McLean is the first choice for homes for many diplomats, cabinet members, international financiers, new money of the Arabian Princes and old money of the Kennedys (not too old).  Hickory Hill was the Robert and Ethel Kennedy estate along the Potomac River.  The 11 acres of Rokeby Farm went for about $25,000. 

I hope they had 10% down.  5% down won't hack it any more. 

McLean is a "high risk" area.

                                                                   '                                

                                                    TYPICAL HOME IN MCLEAN

  map mclean va

  

Courtesy, Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, 800-711-7988, E-Mail.

Lenn's BlogSend Us Your NeedsE-Mail Homefinders.com

 
Post is included in group: Realtors®

55 Comments on HIGH RISK RATING BY FANNIE MAE?? HOW ACCURATE IS IT?

FEB
11
2008
657,343 Points 104 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
Lenn- Who knows! Missy sent me the countrywide data and our county was #3 not #4 which was the worst. But hey, what do they know? They don't even know how to answer their phones and our customers are on the phone for hours on end to no avail. I would take anything they think or say with a grain of salt! 
6:51pm • #1
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Katerina.  Thanks.  I couldn't believe it.  McLean is the luxury community in Northern Virginia.  They have not the foggiest idea what they are doing.

 

6:58pm • #2

Lenn:  Take a lot at this map... it looks like Arizona has been hit by a nuclear blast.  The media will be all over this one.  When you think it can't get worse...

http://www.themortgagereports.com/2008/02/how-the-declini.html

6:59pm • #3
170,862 Points 6 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Lenn,  I want to comment, but am speechless.  Go figure!
7:01pm • #4
It's all about the money Lenn.  If they label you high risk, they feel "justified" in charging your clients more to get a mortgage.  Don't tinkle on my shoe and tell me it's raining!  I could swallow it better if they simply said, "we're charging EVERYBODY more because we want to and we can".  Great post.
7:05pm • #5
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Jan.  MY GOSH.  Is your market that bad???   That map is great.  Thanks.  They have Baltimore in a "hot zone" too.  I can understand that.  But, McLean doesn't make any sense. 

Marc.  I'm trying to figure it out.  One of the problems, I believe, could be that the national people like Fannie and Freddie lump Washington/Virginia together, Montgomery/Hagerstown, etc. together.  Some of the areas they join are disparate.  I just don't know what to say either. 

Rhonda.  Isn't that sad.  Isn't it sad that the public have no control over these hacks and crooks. 

7:11pm • #6
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Yea right.  Just goes to show how wrong Freddie Mac can be.  I am sweating an apprisal on a condo in Alexandria at the moment (VA Loan) because of the wonderful declining market flag.

7:14pm • #7
4 Featured Posts
Seems like a knee-jerk reaction on the part of Fannie Mae. I bet everything inside the Beltway is "high risk". I've always been told that's where the growth starts and works it's way outwards. The move seems counter-intuitive and unproductive.
7:18pm • #8
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My goodness Cindy.  I imagine any VA loan would cause a sweat in Northern Virginia.  Good luck.  I wouldn't give it much chance if you don't have a government comp. 
7:19pm • #9
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Craig.  I suspect it's because they have lumped Northern Virignia with DC.  It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. 
7:20pm • #10
I believe these studies are capricious at best. Wonder if an analyst from Fannie Mae actually visited McLean or just collated reams of sterile data.
Blogger To Be Named Later
7:37pm • #11
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Andrew.  I don't know.  What I do know is that these incompetent determinations on the part of Fannie Mae will cause a hardship on many buyers, raise their closing costs and some may be denied home ownership because of this rating.
7:46pm • #12
183,138 Points 11 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Don't know how true it is but I just read on another blog that MGIC is headed down the same path!

This is by no means even close to over...they simply are playing with numbers and haven't  clue what they are doing!

8:05pm • #13
117,482 Points 6 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor

Lenn,

I feel your pain.  All of Prince George's County (MD) has been deemed a declining market (some of it may be but certainly not all).  This used to be called redlining and it's supposedly illegal. But I guess if it helps to save the mortgage industry and they don't do it for race (and all the other protected classes) than it's OK.  Or at least it'll be OK until people end up in the courts.

I'm all for down payments but they don't have to "dis" the geography to do it. 

8:45pm • #14
107,033 Points 12 Featured Posts

Lenn - I am baffled by the entire rating system. I think we are just beginning to see various behind the scenes, after the home is under contract shucking and jiving from lenders. I am trying to sort out what kind of home grown addendum's I will have to construct to protect my clients - be they buyers or sellers. I am not sure the appraisal contingency covers yes it appraised but we have cut the appraisal by 5% so now it does not meet the standard needed for the loan.

They may be covering themselves but every-time they create another roadblock, we have to discern how it impacts our contracts. Lord knows they are onerous in Maryland as it is. Just typing out loud.

9:25pm • #15
213,094 Points 39 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Lenn - sending you a link in private to our list for your comments in your market areas. Because we are a smaller lender we depend on third party companies to provide us with the data we need to make the determination.
10:16pm • #16
FEB
12
2008
114,657 Points 9 Featured Posts Outside Blog

We always say that "Real estate is local", but the big investors don't see it that way. They simply calculate what type of loans are higher risk nationwide and apply the guidelines across the board without regard for your local stats.

And the highest risk loans for Fannie and Freddie right now are loans in areas where prices are dropping. I don't believe they're taking into consideration median income at all...just that appraisal flag that says 'depreciation'.

Are most neighborhoods in that area experiencing a decline in prices? Because it seems to me that's all this is about. 'Vanilla Funding', we call it...the mortgages travel so far away from your local scene that the details don't make much difference.

1:44am • #17
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John.  Paragraph 9 of the MAR Contract of Sale protects the buyer completely.  That is the paragraph in which most agent want to use the infamous "TBD". 

If I'm representing a buyer, I limit the financing model in that paragraph to how how the buyer is willing to go with financing, interest rate, down payments, etc. 

If you have a 5% down or 100% financing in Paragraph 9 and the lender won't approve later on after the appraisal, the buyer can void and submit a release. 

If I'm representing a seller, I want the financing model in paragraph 9 to be as accurate as can be compared to the lender's letter to make sure a buyer can't use it for Weasel room.  I would also make sure the contract required the appraisal be done in 5-6 days and in the Addendum of Clauses, require that the property remain in ACTIVE status until the appraisal is satisfactory.

If a buyer submits a contract with TBD in Paragraph 9, they can't Weasel out no matter what the lender requires in the end because they didn't set limits that the seller accepted.

I have rarely seen a situation that the magnificent MAR contract doesn't cover, along with the options under the Paragraph of Clauses. 

One thing is for sure, you do NOT want to remove the financing contingency with these land mines all around.  Agents are often anxious to remove the financing contingency paragraph.  Not smart. 

I love the MAR Contract.  A smart agent can play it like a Stradivarius. 

6:13am • #18
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Joey.  I thought they were supposed to add a unique and innovative rquirement to their loan approvals, ABILITY TO REPAY THE LOAN.  WOW, what a concept.

You are right, of course.  That said, we need prices to come down in all areas.  Fannie Mae doesn't understand the difference between a declining market and market prices coming down. 

Ken.  Thanks.  I'll look for it.  My objection to Fannie Mae's mapping is that they don't understand our area.  They have persisted in making the DC/MD/VA areas different markets by combining disparate areas as one market which have no financially, demographic or any other similarities  They combine urban and rural.  They combine Montgomery County, one of the highest priced ares with Hagerstown, rural and low priced. 

Fannie Mae doesn't know he difference between an apple and an orange.

6:24am • #19
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Ken.  In reality, PG is less of a declining market than many other markets in the DC/MD/VA metro market because it didn't increase at the rate the other areas did.  Same thing happened in the early 1990s, Northern Virginia and Mont. lost a lot of market value but PG actually gained in those years. 

I believe it really IS redlining in the case of PG.  In the case of McLean, it's simple ignorance.

Joan.  I agree.  It's going to get a lot worse before getting better.  Of course MGIC will do the same.  How else can they justify raising the cost of MI??

6:29am • #20
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Lenn, Below is an email I received this morning from a buyer that is purchasing one of my listings. The purchase price is $115,000. I will be writing a post about this email later but thought it would be fitting here.

"Hi Bryant, it's xxxxx and I wanted to give you a quick update, unfortunately because of the lack of any comparable sales within the past 6 months and quickly falling sales and home prices the appraisal came back lower than expected however to compensate for the "declining property value" I have to put down a larger down payment, that is not what I hoped for but I really think the house will eventually bounce back up so that is a risk I am willing to take."

And there you have it!!!!!

7:07am • #21
224,760 Points 2 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
I'ts interesting to see McClean listed as high risk.  Over the years, it has been a super performer, h asn't it.  Hope the spring selling season improves.
7:10am • #22
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Bryant.  That's great. 

The problem in my market is with average price ranges in the $500K - $800K ranges, another 5% is big money. 

Of course, the buyer is correct, prices will eventually bounce back.  Eventually. 

Diane.  Of course, McLean is a high performer.  Of course it is.  Buyers in McLean are often putting down big money and they have low LTV.  This thing is insane.

8:01am • #23
610,629 Points 80 Featured Posts Outside Blog

It is scary that companies like Countrywide can say anything!  They caused it!  The only risk to the market is that they are still in business!

As far as prices, the DC area comprises the 5 wealthiest counties in the nation...what is their problem?  As far as I am concerned, lets go back to the old days with 20% down, and provide the bank wiht data that you have the ability to repay what you are borrowing.  Forget the stretch!

9:41am • #24
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Jim.

I don't even have a problem with 10% down, 5% down, or zero down, IF, and it's a big IF, the buyer has credit to justify the lower down payment and they have the documented ability to repay the loan.  But, teaser rates with fraudulent loan apps and fraudulent documentation put people in homes that they shouldn't have been approved for with 30% down.  It appears that it is the resetting of ARM products that is causing most of the trouble. 

My observations of the mortgage mess is that it was fraud on the part of speculators and lenders who wrote loans for unqualified buyers who were unqualified when the loan was made that caused a lot of the trouble.

The unrestrained escalation in home prices simply turned the market on it's head and a lot of folks were left with homes that they couldn't pay for and couldn't sell. 

Requiring high down payments in our market takes too many folks out of the market and just makes them renters. 

11:59am • #25
109,021 Points 11 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Lenn, They are not rated your buyers (or homeowners) as risky, but rather that prices are a little soft and could come down a bit. Has nothing whatsoever to do with the quality of the people there. That should make you happly. You keep saying "bring the prices down."

Bill Roberts 

2:34pm • #26
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Bill.  I understand completely.  What you say is accurate and that is the problem.  As with any arbitrary methodology such as "declining area", it will be used to limit the borrowing ability of perfectly qualified home buyers who will not be able to buy even though they are completely credit worthy, upward mobile, stable folks who will not be able to join the ranks of home owners because they haven't been able to save huge amounts of money in an area where the cost of living is very high. 

We've sold hundreds of homes in the past 10 years to families with zero to 5% down and only one defaulted and that was a sub-prime. 

Good credit and the paying attention to qualifying ratios is more of a predictor of ability to repay than down payment.  At least that is my observation.  Certainly a better predictor than lines drawn on a map by a bunch of bureaucrats. 

Families will not be able to buy where they want to live.  They'll have to buy based on where a map tells them what their down payment will be. 

2:59pm • #27
109,024 Points 11 Featured Posts
Lenn, Guess I'm lucky in that we do not have to check a particular zip code in my market here in so.Cal.LOL  The whole state got the declining market tag.
4:55pm • #28
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Lenn, they rated Ann Arbor and Washtenaw County high risk too. I disagree with the Ann Arbor rating. I think cw just did too many loans there.
5:25pm • #29
188,281 Points 19 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Lenn...McLean is a very interesting location.  When I lived there in the 80's there was a real demarcation in average home prices from one side of Dolley Madison to the other.  Great Falls is where the big estates and the more expensive homes were located.  Below DM was much more middle class.  Is it still like that? 

If McLean is High Risk, the whole country must be! 

Countryside, and businesses like it, has certainly created a mess.

Kathleen

 

 

5:35pm • #30
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Lenn,
I did not read all the other comments, but if this is concerning a "declining market area", then freddie mac has associated your area with surrounding areas with a "broad brush stroke".  They use a broad stroke so they will not be charged with "red lining".  I live in a high cost area, but 20 miles either east or west have a high rate of forclosures.  So in their attempt not to be red lining, they have include my area as a "decllining market" area. AJ
6:10pm • #31
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Cameron.  The whole State of CA?  That just shows how little sense this entire thing makes.

Missy.  CW is what I would call a corporate criminal enterprise.

Kathleen.  McLean is inside the beltway and outside the beltway.  Inside is very expensive due to proximity to DC and National Airport and the Pentagon and not to mention the highest ranked public schools in Fairfax County.  40-50 year old homes in McLean, inside the beltway sell for about $520 a square foot on 10.000 square foot lots.    On a half acre lot, if the house has been upgraded, it will go for about $570 a quare foot.

 

 

 

6:18pm • #32
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Lenn...The location and the schools were the primary reasons we bought a home in McLean.  Both lived up to our expectations. 

We had heard so much about the superior schools in McLean that we had our daughter tested prior to the beginning of her first year there.  She had been moved up a grade back in Kent, Ohio and we wondered how she would fare.  She tested for gifted and talented.  We were pleased to know she had received very good preparation back in Ohio.

We certainly could have purchased "more" house for the same price or less further out but found McLean to be a great place to live primarily for the two reasons I mentioned above.

If I had to move back to Northern Virginia I would probably pick McLean again, high risk or not. 

Thanks for the information on square foot averages...amazing.

Kathleen

 

6:53pm • #33
1 Featured Post

Lenn - looks and sounds like a very beautiful area!  I find it hard to believe they would label that a declining market.  I understand they are speaking of property values relative to historic data and nothing more, but I think prices are dropping almost everywhere in the US.  I would imagine a good percentage of the folks looking to purchase in McLean have high scores and good reserves.  It's a shame they have to fall victim to the recent mortgage mess.

10:13pm • #34
100,215 Points 20 Featured Posts

Lenn- You obviously didn't get the memo.. everyone in the country who bought from 2004 to 2007 did so without a down payment, had really bad credit  and lied on their loan application.  They are all getting ready to default on their loans sometime in the next 30 days.  The media and all the savvy  people know that no one actually has any money and no one could afford what they purchased because prices are just too high.

As soon as those living in McLean and other affluent communities lose their homes in foreclosure and those markets drop 60% in value the truly deserving people who make $30,000 a year will step in and buy those homes at reasonable prices that reflect true economic values. 

10:51pm • #35
FEB
13
2008
229,725 Points 22 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

This is a typical knee jerk reaction to a problem they, and others, should have seen coming, and probably did but were too busy pocketing millions upon millions in profits.  Now rather than put appropriate credit risk rules in place, they assign arbitrary designations to areas which only serves to hurt all buyers; good credit history and bad.  I have to agree with Jim; the real risk to the market is that the respective CEO's aren't in jail and their doors aren't sealed. 

3:31am • #36
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Lenn, I'm wondering how to address it (as a buyer's agent)- a clause permitting an "out" should the seller refuse to lower the price (but permitting the buyer to come up with the difference, should they choose to)- another kink.  UCK.
6:34am • #37
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Laurie.  We have an addendum for that.  If the appraisal is low, the buyer has X days to notice the seller to either lower the price or the contract is void.  Then the seller has X days to lower to appraised value or make another offer. It can go back and forth for a few days.

If a house is particularly nice and I have a buyer in a good cash position, I write in the contract that, in case of an appraisal below contract, the buyer agrees to pay an additional $XXX, usually, $2,000, $5,000 over appraisal.  That way, the seller has already agreed and so has the buyer. 

  • Contract $450,000 with an agreement to go $2,000 over appraisal.
  • Appraisal $$445,000.
  • New Price $447,000 already agreed.

I like to get things pinned down in the contract to limit paperwork and so everyone knows where everyone is in case of a low appraisal.  Since this is a condition of the contract, both parties have already decided how to handle a low appraisal.

Of course, Fannie Mae has thrown a greasy wrench into everything in many areas.  But, I can protect my buyer with our financing clause because the financing is in the contract. 

 

7:27am • #38
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Derek.  My complaint is that McLean is NOT a high risk area or declining area.  It will be one of the last areas to decline.  We need list prices to come down everywhere.  But, let the market do the job, not a bunch of bureaucrats, some of whom line their own pockets by manipulating financial data. 

Fannie Mae shouldn't be in the business of manipulating the market by making financing harder in one area than another based on lines on a map.  This is insane.

Shucks, about the only thing that brings real prices down in areas like Bethesda in MD and McLean in Va is homes being purchased for "tear down" lots to build MultiMillion new homes on the lots. 

 

7:47am • #39
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Kaye.  I'm glad you have a handle on it.  You're right of course. 

The people who made the real money between 2004 and 2007 were the Fannie Mae executives who manipulated the financial reports to enhance their own cash bonuses to the $Millions of Dollars. 

Franklin Raines pocketed $Millions when he manipulated Fannie Mae's books and then, when he was booted out, he got more $Millions for separation pay. 

These are our leaders???

Jesse and Kathy.  Absolutely.  I've been petitioning for Franklin Raines to be prosecuted for over a year.  If he hadn't screwed up Fannie Mae, they could have had the limit raised and purchased more good loans rather than having to spend 2 years "correcting" their financial filings while the housing market went in the toilet.

 

7:53am • #40
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Hmm.  Do you suppose that it's wise to make the assumption that the NY attorneys have this under control (as the contract preparers)?  Bets are on.
12:17pm • #41
4 Featured Posts
Lenn, I don't have a clue where they get some of their information.  It seems we have that here as well, and it is more difficult to get people look at the actual numbers once they have "seen" it on tv or "read" it in the paper.
7:31pm • #42
FEB
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Laurie.  I'm assuming your question is rhertorical.

Ray.  Sadly, you're correct.  I could write reams about the misconceptions that reporters call me to verify.  When I tell them that their premise is incorrect and that I can't verify misinformation, they refuse to listen.

 

11:22am • #43

Wow I have just read this blog and it is really amazing.

 Lenn has it effected buyers in your area?

7:25pm • #44
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Jason and Deanna.  What we're finding is when there is more than one offer, the one with the strongest lender approval gets the contract.  Also one of our buyers had to put up 10% rather than 5%.

 

7:42pm • #45
FEB
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2008
161,447 Points 11 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog
Sounds like HUD needs to "rescue" McLean and raise the FHA loan limit to 2.5 million!!!!!  Can we do Ameridream with that????
4:33am • #46
1 Featured Post
Lenn - I completely agree with you here.  I am not familiar with your marketplace, but it certainly seems that if that area is classified a, "declining market," then they all must be!  This is the first, "market correction," I have experienced in my career, and I'm sure it won't be the last ... from hearing everyone talk it is the most extreme they have seen in their decades of selling Real Estate...
12:41pm • #47
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Tina.  I'm laughing out loud.  Thank you.

Derek.  The government is totally helpless to do much of anything about anything.  What they have managed to do, screw up Fannie Mae, give the keys to the vault to the hedge funds and generally fiddle while Rome burned is typical for the past few years. 

12:50pm • #48
FEB
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9 Featured Posts

Lenn,

Obviously, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac has just recently designated this area as "declining market."  This is one of several changes that has been implemented as part of their efforts to reduce risk/minimize their exposure. I have a couple of recent posts that address these changes and how we are forced to find another approach to business and minimizing the impact to us and our clients.

Where permissible by maximum mortgage amounts, FHA is now the solution!  The economic stimulus bill just signed by President Bush will provide some increases to these caps within the next 30 days.  Hopefully, any increase applicable to your area will help you and your clients get around these constraints.

5:58am • #50
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FHA won't help in areas like McLean.  It's over the limit.  $550K is the lowest price listed and it's a "tear down".

How is the FHA limit going to be affacted by an area that has been designated "declining".

The more the government gets involved in this mess, the worse it gets.

 

6:15am • #51
FEB
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2008
9 Featured Posts

Lenn,

I obviously made my comments about FHA not knowing or researching the maximum FHA mortgage for a SFR in Fairfax County, VA. or the median sales price. In checking I see that current FHA maximum is $362, 790. Woefully short! Below is a cut and paste excerpt from Mortgage News Daily that discusses changes  in mortgage limits as proposed in the economic stimulus bill just signed by President Bush. It appears that the FHA limits for a SFR in your area could go to $634,882 if I properly understand it.  While this may not be much of a solution maybe it will help a  little.

The changes for FHA borrowers are more complicated. Existing loan limits for FHA are lower than those for Freddie and Fannie and vary by metropolitan statistical area. For example the maximum FHA loan in Boise, Idaho is currently $230,850. In Omaha Nebraska it is $200,160; and in New York's 13th District $362,790. The latter amount appears to be the highest limit in the contiguous 48 states. Thus, using 175 percent of current limits the new limit for New York will be $634,882 and Boise would be, under the formula, $403,987. However, Boise will actually have a new limit of $417,000 because the new loan limit for FHA loans will, in no case, be less than that amount.

7:13am • #52
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Ron.  You're right, it is complicated.  However, the thought that FHA will help in area of Northern Virginia like McLean is interesting but just not realistic. 

There is the additional complication of government comps.  Appraisers would have an impossible task finding a government comp. for locations in McLean.  The exception would be homes close to Pimmit Hills, in Falls Church, which is contiguous with McLean.  However, the 5-6 homes sold in the FHA range were all financed with conventional loans.

Bottom line, FHA isn't going to help McLean.  $417 isn't going to help where the lowest price home is almost $600,000.

8:25am • #53
What you speak of is the newest wave of suspect activities by lenders.  It is one thing when you talk about Fannie Mae grading geographical areas, but institutions as banks are not permitted to apply "high risk" redlines to geographical areas.  As this profile-based activity increases, you can be sure that the actions by CountryWide-like lenders will be challenged in U.S. court.
3:23pm • #54
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Darhlene

Thanks.

I suspect that the challenges will be for the wrong reasons, but I believe you're probably correct. 

This uncertainty is causing a distinct slowdown as if we needed more reason for the buyer to just sit, this is really doing it.

 

3:43pm • #55

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