According to Professor R.Keith Schwer Ph.D. UNLV
"Residential construction remains depressed. The supply of empty housing units (new homes, existing homes, apartments, residencies for sale by owner, and unlisted foreclosure properties) exceeds 25,000 units. This supply of empty units far exceeds a normal inventory level. As a result, we face downward pressure on prices, hesitancy to cut prices, hesitancy to buy, a generally held belief that prices will decline in the future, tightened credit, and losses in home equity - all these factors contribute to difficulties in the current housing market.
Even in the face of excess supplies in 2007, permitting continues. Southern Nevada posted 6,489 units permitted in the 3rd quarter. Indeed, the 3rd-quarter number of permits in 2007 exceeds the same quarter’s a year earlier. Most notably, there was a marked increase in multifamily units permitted - 3,964 of 6,489 (61.1 percent of total units). As housing affordability has declined in recent years, market incentives point to the need for housing in lower-price ranges, suggesting multifamily units. Still, strong permitting will add to the future supply of housing units, requiring future demand changes to ensure orderly market balance. Most importantly, not all of the increase in permitting will necessarily increase the supply of units in the new term. Increased permitting is occurring in advance of forthcoming changes. As a result, the increased permitting is not a sign for delayed adjustment to housing imbalances, rather a sign of preparation for future profitable opportunities and stockpiling of permits.
The time to burn off the current excess supply of housing units depends on future population growth and housing preferences. In our count of redeemed out-of-state drivers’ licenses, a proxy measure for in-migration, we find 57,563 for the first three quarters of 2007 compared with 63,046 for the same three quarters in 2006, a drop of 9.7 percent. No doubt, declining relative economic opportunities, as reflected in the sharp increase in home values over the past few years, plays a role in this recent decline in Southern Nevada. Other things equal, a slower population-growth rate lengthens the time to correct the excess housing-supply imbalance.
Apartment market conditions for vacancy and rental rates show little change during 2007. The average monthly rent is up to $868 (second-quarter 2007) from $856 (third-quarter 2007), a small difference. Also, vacancies increased modestly, up from 7.0 percent to 7.1 percent between the second and third quarters. The apartment market has shown far more rent stability than the prices for single-family homes, but we have also seen apartment vacancies rise in response to the excess supply of the single-family market. The vacancy rate has risen over the past couple of years as renters found more opportunities in single detached units."
THIS PAST WEEKEND I MADE AN APPT FOR 12 HOMES TO SHOW A BUYER...OF THE 12,,,8 WERE SUBJECT TO BANK APPROVAL..VERY SCARY MARKET. WHAT ARE YOU DOING FOR INCOME?