After showing a prospect some downtown St Petersburg condos this afternoon, we sat down to sort through what we'd seen. He asked me, "What's going to happen with prices? Are condos going down more than houses?"

Other than not having a crystal ball, I can say that in both condos and houses some are going to do well and some are not. The average price change isn't going to help you. Let's talk about which building (or which neighborhoods) are likely to show more price drops than others. Despite the newspaper statistics you read, there are still some building and some neighborhoods where prices are not declining, and where they're actually going up.

Then we started to discuss the downtown St Pete condo buildings, one by one. They say Real Estate is Local - and it really is. Dig deeper to separate the mini-markets. 

 
Post is included in group: Condos, What you need to know?

12 Comments on Average prices don't really tell you about the market

FEB
15
2008
166,993 Points 8 Featured Posts Called Shot Master
I agree with you wholeheartedly. Our market is very different depending on whether you're looking at the higher end, middle of the market or entry level price range. And neighborhood by neighborhood. It's so critical for buyers to have a knowledgeable, local area specialist assisting them! And as Realtors, it's important for us to be on top of the trends. The only thing costant in my market is the change!
5:52pm • #1
601,535 Points 45 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Shannon - yes, change is the only constant. A knowledgeable, local area specialist really has a lot to offer buyers (and sellers). There's a lot of important information that isn't written down.
6:00pm • #2
517,110 Points 4 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master
Sharon, I agree and I like your "mini-market" description. Averages and regional (even countywide) data can never give an accurate read on what's happening in a given specific location or neighborhood. Some areas and neighborhoods are outperforming the average while others are below. It's the application of local conditions (specific area/neighborhood inventory, days on market, features) that is crucial to any in depth analysis. Excellent post!
6:25pm • #3
601,535 Points 45 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Diane - glad you agree. That's also why we don't advise a buyer to offer the average discount of sale price from list price. Every property is different. Let's compare asking price to value rather than to an "average" purchase.
6:33pm • #4
719,995 Points 69 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Sharon - I focus on a very small market area, normally 50-60 homes sold per year, but in 2007 only 25 homes sold.  Nonetheless, when you really dig down beneath the numbers, it becomes clear that there was a two-tiered market.  Homes below $400,000 gained value and those above $400,000 lost value.  The differences were quite dramatic.  This is the first time that our market has shown a bifurcation of values.
10:49pm • #5
FEB
16
2008
2 Featured Posts
Yes, you must always be careful how you interpret this data, I agree, that average home prices and those data points can be problematic when trying to ascertain the pulse of the market. Lance
12:55am • #6
374,203 Points 18 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp
Data is data and really tells you little unit you know how to read it. We get faced with that all the time.  
12:07pm • #7
597,449 Points 106 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
I have seen patterns in my market.  For example when we had a troop movement we saw lower priced condos moving faster.  That meant lower average sale prices and a lower median price for that period of time.  Did that mean prices were dropping?  No, it meant that the lower end properties had a rush of business.  The higher end ones were still moving the same as before.
12:52pm • #8
601,535 Points 45 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Gail - good for you for being aware of the bifurcation. Now you'll have to educate everyone you deal with.

Lance - it's always good to have a knowledgeable colleague if it's an area you're not familiar with.

Eric - that points out that statistics are what you make them.

Randy - exactly the point!  
1:45pm • #9
OCT
25
2008
2 Featured Posts

So, so true, but it seems the buyers are so nervous with the economy, they listen to all of your guidance, and still feel they should take another 5% off, to prepare for future.  I prepare the buyer cma, and it is much easier to do when similar units have sold,  but you need to try and get the prices of the units that are in contract, you just have to be so current. I know I am going off a little, but it is just when you get what the price is, will appraise for, is fair for both parties, that still both feel they are being cheated.
4:48pm • #10
601,535 Points 45 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Joanne - yes, and some buyers decide not to buy because their "other advisors" are telling them that prices are going to drop much farther. We can only guide according to our experience.
5:13pm • #11
JUL
20
2011
1,214,630 Points 119 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

When we say it is local, it is often not about the market in general. In one condo the  developer is still selling a few units and they go for under $300K, however all resales in t he same building for for $500K+. The minute the developer walks out of the building, those under $300K are gone. The  next budilding has all unit that are resale. These o a mini scale woudl be a totally different market
11:41pm • #12


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Sharon Simms St Pete FL - CRS CIPS CLHMS RSPS (ALVA International, Inc.) Rainmaker_large

Sharon Simms St Pete FL - CRS CIPS CLHMS RSPS

Saint Petersburg, FL

More about me…

ALVA International, Inc.

Address: 238 Beach Drive NE, St Petersburg, FL, 33701

Office Phone: (727) 898-2582

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