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In This Issue |
Last Week in Review: Positive economic data capped a rough week for Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates, despite tame inflation data.
Forecast for the Week: Housing news and the Fed meeting minutes highlight a quiet economic calendar. View: Knowing the difference between action and activity can make a big difference in achieving your goals. The easy tips below can help. |
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Last Week in Review |
"If you build it, they will come." And while that line from the movie Field of Dreams may have referred to a baseball field, after last week's news it could also apply to the housing market.
The housing sector continues to improve despite the recent rise in home loan rates, as Housing Starts rose 5.9 percent from June to July to 896,000 on an annualized basis. This was in line with estimates. Building Permits, a sign of future construction, were up 2.7 percent, coming in above expectations. In addition, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index rose to 59 in August from the 57 recorded in July. This is the best level in nearly eight years. Retails Sales for July were also positive, rising for the fourth straight month. When stripping out autos, sales surged by 0.5 percent, the fastest pace this year. And there was good news for the labor market, as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell to 320,000, a level not seen since October 2007. There were no apparent seasonal distortions in the numbers. In the manufacturing sector, Empire State Manufacturing came in above expectations, while the Philadelphia Fed Index came in just below expectations. What does this mean for home loan rates? Remember that the Fed has been buying $85 billion of Bonds a month to help stimulate the economy and housing market. This includes Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied, and these purchases have helped home loan rates remain attractive. The Fed has said the rate of its purchases will continue to depend on economic data, and could be increased or decreased accordingly. Rest assured that the Fed was watching all the good economic reports from last week very closely. The data that continues to come in will be a key factor in whether the Fed begins tapering these purchases as early as its meeting in mid-September, or if it waits until later in the year or even 2014. One thing that is also important to note--inflation at both the wholesale and consumer levels remains tame, as evidenced by the Producer and Consumer Price Indexes for July. This gives the Fed cover to continue its Bond purchases if economic data takes a turn for the worse. The bottom line is that now remains a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance, as home loan rates remain attractive compared to historical levels. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients. |
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Forecast for the Week |
The economic calendar is quiet this week, but the Fed meeting minutes could move the markets.
In addition, the minutes from the Fed's latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET. If the minutes hint that the Fed may start tapering its Bond purchases after its September meeting, this could cause volatility to ramp up to an extremely high level. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving -- and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further -- a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, last week was a rough one for Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates. I'll be watching the news closely to see if economic reports continue to be positive...and if there is more talk of the Fed's tapering its Bond purchases in September. |
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The Mortgage Market Guide View... |
For more info you can email Christian Penner at Christian@ChristianPenner.com or visit to Www.ChristianPenner.com
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MMG Weekly: Good News Bad for Bonds
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