Every time I hear a national news outlet talk about the "average" home sale price going up or down or sideways, it makes me crazy!

First of all, they are talking national averages, but it means nothing at all to the listening audience who may be trying to figure out what their local real estate market might be up to.  In Poinciana, Florida they could be going in a whole different direction than they are in Houston or Boston or Chicago.

Second, I get crazy when I read stuff in local publications talking about the Washington, DC metro area, since what's going on in, say, Prince William County Virginia gives me no hint of what I will experience buying or selling in house in the District of Columbia!  Prince William is the short sale champion in our area.  You rarely see short sales or foreclosures in Northwest DC.

Even breaking down averages in my own zip code will not help me determine a price for my own home.  A formerly run down pocket of homes has recently gotten a new Metro station, and that is fueling sales on the smaller, less expensive homes - thereby lowering the "average" sales price for the wide variety of homes throughout the zip code - and these little places are selling for a whole lot more than they were in the past. 

There are also big houses in that same neighborhood, but fewer of these high ticket numbers are on the market, so fewer sales in the high end are also bringing down the "average", while not necessarily selling for less money than they did last year.

If you live in a neighborhood of monopoly houses, all the same size and shape, all put up at the same time, and all on Baltic Place, the averages for Baltic might help.  But if you look at the whole game board, it might tell you that averages are higher because more houses are selling on Boardwalk and Park Place, and they are selling for more money -  and this brings the "average" up.

In these comparisons, we are not comparing apples to apples - not even apples to oranges. 

We are comparing apples to monkeys!

What we need is a reliable way to look at what similar houses in a specific neighborhood are doing.  Would a three-bedroom, 2 1/2 bath brick colonial in a particular subdivision sell for more or less than a nearly identical house sold for during whatever time frame we're looking at?

So, if you are thinking about selling, you will learn more by having a seasoned agent prepare a careful market analysis than by reading the real estate section of your local paper or listening to the nightly news.

After all, real estate trends are strictly local phenomenons.