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Debt Ratios; How High is TOO High?

By
Mortgage and Lending with Christensen Financial Mortgage 385907

I was reading an article online this morning about subprime loans that were defaulting before the rates reset. They quoted analyst Michael Youngblood of Freidman, Billings, and Ramsey as being shocked by this fact. I guess we were to believe that Friedman, and whomever were some sort of experts in regards to these matters although, personally I'm not familiar with them. However, I would question that they are, based on Mr. Youngblood being "shocked" by this phenomenon.

Many/most of the subprime loans allowed for debt ratios of up to 50%, some even went to 55%, or higher.

That was of the gross. That fact is actually gross!

So, in regards to debt to income ratios, how high is too high?

Okay, let's try some simple math:

Income $5000 monthly with a 20% tax bracket. Net $4,000

$5000 x .5 (50%) = $2500-this is available for house payments and total debt, ie; installment loans and credit cards.

If you take the net income, the $2500 monthly expenses now represents 63%, so that leaves $1500 or 37% for everything else.

Unless your self employed or in a similar situation you get the net, not the gross.

Okay, so we still have electric, cable, water, telephone, and other monthly expenses.

Well what about food you may say? Have you seen gas prices lately?

Anybody got any kids out there?

Wow! Good luck with this.

Now, upon buying your new home you needed additional household furnishings and maintenance equipment, you know, lawn mover, tools etc.

But don't worry since you bought the home the preapproved credit cards are rooling through the door, and Sears, Lowes, Home Depot are very anxious to meet you.

When you attend Church you always include a prayer that nothing breaks, because you didn't/don't have any savings. 

Does this sound to you, like it does to me, that these loans were designed to fail.

The real question may be how did any of them make it?

This model that I just used was for verifiable income, and does not include the so called liar loans. Let's face it, if this is the picture for those who actually make the money, the stated guys/gals are just way too far out there.

Shocked by the defaults, nope not me!

I do have a question that needs anawering.

What knucklehead made these rules anyway? 

Charity Shehtanian
First Priority Financial - Livermore, CA
And did you know that Fannie Mae will approve some loans with a 64.99% DTI?   Of course, that will depend a lot on LTV, credit scores, etc.  The truth is, some people are very frugal with their money and can handle a high DTI (I've seen people like this) while others I've seen are struggling and foreclosing when their DTI is under 40%.  Unfortunately underwriting guidelines don't leave room for judgement calls, it's more just follow the matrix.
Feb 23, 2008 12:53 AM
Jay Beckingham
Christensen Financial Mortgage - Port St Lucie, FL
Seniors ROCK!

Charity,

you could look at residuals and paint a better picture. i do believe though in general it was a bit foolish.

from a risk assessment standpoint it's ridiculous.

jay

Feb 23, 2008 10:19 PM
Richard Sweum
1st Security Bank - Everett, WA
Hi Jay, I agree 100%.  I wrote a similar blog about what DTI reflected years ago...point being, people have more things to spend money in 2008 than they did in 1988...(cell phones, cable, etc). 
Feb 24, 2008 01:48 AM
Dionne Bass
Ask The Underwriter - Atlanta, GA
Blog: Ask The Underwriter
I know 38% may seem low, but I think that is a good number not to exceed.  It give you room to wiggle.
Feb 24, 2008 05:17 AM
Jay Beckingham
Christensen Financial Mortgage - Port St Lucie, FL
Seniors ROCK!

Rich,

they could easily balance high ratios with remaining residual income guidelines. also going back to cash reserves would also give higher ratios some credibility.

D. Bass,

38% is good. and with 38% as a benchmark, then exceptions in all likelihood wouldn't exceed 41%. that's part of the game we play.

jay

Feb 24, 2008 08:04 AM
Ronald Gillis
Southwest Florida Notaries (Mortgage Notary Signing Agent) - Port Charlotte, FL
CNSA Southwest Florida. Notaries, Port Charlotte, 941-7-NOTARY

There are many corrections that have been needed for a long time, the sub-prime problems just put a sense of urgency to START to fix SOME of these issues.  Many other things are being looked at (as I am sure you know that) so there should be many more changes on the horizon!

Signature

Mar 01, 2008 05:04 AM
Sarah Eubanks
Hill Valley Financial Services - Oregon City, OR
Preferred Oregon Loan Consultant & Notary Public
Jay ~  Excellent point...I'm glad that we are weeding out the bad loans and the LO's who took advantage of them. 
Mar 01, 2008 06:59 AM
Lee Walsh
SecurityNational Mortgage - Lake Mary, FL
Executive Talent Scout for Mortgage Professionals

Jay

20 years ago when the B/C or subprime debt ratio guidelines were written the max LTV was 80% for a full doc loan - these loans performed well for over 15 years  with 50% D TI at 80%.

In the mid 90's  wall street and credit scores came into play. This set the stage for a big blow up that only needed rapid equity growth to add fuel to the fire. by 2001 and 2002 we had 100% loans with stated income / stated asset based on high scores. Boom!

Ad to all of that a flood of new people who really did not know what they were doing and they did not care. It was easy money.  

Mar 01, 2008 11:09 AM
Jay Beckingham
Christensen Financial Mortgage - Port St Lucie, FL
Seniors ROCK!

Ron,

i believe we will swing to the most conservative of guidelines and then move back into a more acceptable middle area. but for the sake of some long term stability we cannot return to the excessive behaviors of the recent past.

Sarah,

unfortunately, or fortunately, the market takes care of itself.

Lee,

it's not hard to believe that loans, where the homeowner had made an initial investment of 20%, performed well. we kind of lost sight of that along the way.

Jay

Mar 04, 2008 11:33 PM
Richard Sweum
1st Security Bank - Everett, WA

That is the issue with Down payment assistance...when borrowers get "in" with no personal financial commitment, the loans don't perform as well.  However, higher DTI's that have a personal investment via a downpayment that actually comes from their own savings perform well.  We will be seeing further tightening from both HUD and Fannie/Freddie automated underwriting platforms.

Mar 05, 2008 02:15 AM
Jay Beckingham
Christensen Financial Mortgage - Port St Lucie, FL
Seniors ROCK!

Rich,

i agree. when someone has invested money, which they worked hard to save, they will perform betterer without question.

jay

Mar 08, 2008 01:50 AM
Jason E. Sorochinsky
M&T Bank - Binghamton, NY

i HAVE RAN DU AT 69% AND GOT APPROVED/ELIGABLE...

 

SKY IS THE LIMIT?

Mar 12, 2008 03:35 PM
Jay Beckingham
Christensen Financial Mortgage - Port St Lucie, FL
Seniors ROCK!

Jason,

and that's not necessarily a good thing.

Jay

Mar 13, 2008 12:34 AM
Karen Cooper
Karen Cooper | Sr Mortgage Loan Originator ! NMLS # 223305 | First Federal Bank of Florida, Ocala, FL - The Villages, FL
Helping Homeowners w/Home Loans in 27 US States
So many times the automated underwriting systems will approve a much higher payment than a buyer who has sat down and analyzed their household budget will allocate. EDUCATE, EDUCATE, EDUCATE those borrowers!
Mar 14, 2008 03:57 PM
Jay Beckingham
Christensen Financial Mortgage - Port St Lucie, FL
Seniors ROCK!

Karen,

i agree. i start out evry interview with a simple question for a prospect.

what do you feel comfortable with for a monthly payment?

jay

Mar 15, 2008 03:26 AM
Debbie Holmes
John L. Scott - Boise, ID
Gets the job done!
Can I copy this and give to my clients and maybe even repost it here?
Mar 16, 2008 03:34 AM
Jay Beckingham
Christensen Financial Mortgage - Port St Lucie, FL
Seniors ROCK!

Debbie,

yes you may copy the post, and feel free to use it in any way which may help you and/or your clients.

jay

Mar 17, 2008 01:05 AM
S J
Pittsburgh, PA
best advice, always live way below your means
Mar 18, 2008 06:13 AM
Jay Beckingham
Christensen Financial Mortgage - Port St Lucie, FL
Seniors ROCK!

Chadd,

amen, it makes sleeping at night a dream (pun intended)

jay

Mar 18, 2008 07:32 AM
Ronald Gillis
Southwest Florida Notaries (Mortgage Notary Signing Agent) - Port Charlotte, FL
CNSA Southwest Florida. Notaries, Port Charlotte, 941-7-NOTARY

BTW, Jay, I agree with your swing analysis.  Almost everything stopped for a while.  It is trickling back, although I am sure it will not be like it was, a good thing though!

Signature 

Jul 05, 2008 03:56 AM