When I talk about the market I always qualify myself by pointing out what a lousy stock picker I am and the fact that I cannot never pick the winner in a football game. I do not play poker (I cannot bluff), I do play blackjack (where I can look at the numbers and make an educated decision).
In the past week I have shared anecdotal information about multiple offers on well priced homes, homes being sold before offers can be submitted, and have told you about people loosing out on a home they wanted by low balling an already well priced home.
Well I am looking at some market numbers and they do look good. Currently there are 3031 homes on the market in East Contra Costa County. This includes Real Estate in Brentwood, Discovery Bay, Antioch, Oakley, Byron, Knightsen, Bethel Island, Pittsburg, and Bay Point. Of the homes on the market 1117 are bank owned and 793 are short sales. Right now there are 511 sales pending, of which 379 are bank owned and 42 are short sales.
The most important number is that in January of this year there were 633 sales; 462 of those sales were bank owned homes and 47 were short sales. If they closed in January that means people were shopping for them in December, a traditionally slow time of year. This puts the market at a 6 months supply, which some people would consider a healthy supply.
Remember government statistic and other official sources of information usually follow the fact by a few months at least. These are today numbers. In other words by the time someone official tells you it is over and it hits the newspaper it has been over for a few months. YOU MISSED IT!
For buyers this should be an indication that we may be at the bottom and now is the time to snap up bargains. Sellers that want or need to sell should understand they will not be getting the price they could have two years ago, one year ago, or even six months ago, but that the market may stabilize and you should be able to set a more accurate price. If non-Bank Owned sellers move into the market in mass we may also see another sharp price drop.
Remember most real estate is local, so bad news nationwide does not mean bad news for real estate in Brentwood, Discovery Bay, Antioch, Oakley, Byron, Knightsen, Bethel Island, Pittsburg, and Bay Point. There will be more foreclosures and probably continue to be a excessive amount of Bank Owned homes on the market. Although I believe the mortgage lenders and the government will take steps to curtail this trend. To balance this out I think the mortgage rates will continue to fall.
Finally, do not let the experts scare you. Look at their numbers and all the factors involved to try and get an idea or what is happening. I do not have all the answers, but I will not be driven by fear. If you have a thought let me know. In 2006, a mere two years ago, few people would have predicted this mortgage disaster, although everyone now says all the signs were present. Be willing to see the potential now.
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