As you may know, the Fed's are meeting today.
It's a two day meeting, where they'll announce tomorrow.
The statement will be released at 11:15 Pacific time.

So there's a pause in the markets today.
We've seen the 10 yr. react in a general upwards direction.
It opened this morning at 4.87%

It's still a matter of supply and demand but a simple and general rule to remember when it comes to rates is this:

Good economic news = Higher rates
Poor news = Lower rates

It's a gross generalization, and it still boils down to supply and demand, but it's something to put in the back of your head and think about.

There's a bunch of info hitting the markets this week.
Not only is it still "Earnings Season", there's a ton of data to be reported this week.
Most all of these play into what happens to rates!

How's this for a list of items to watch? 

 

1/30/07 Consumer Confidence
1/31/07 GDP-Adv.
1/31/07 Chain Deflator-Adv.
1/31/07 Employment Cost Index
1/31/07 Chicago PMI
1/31/07 Construction Spending
1/31/07 Crude Inventories
1/31/07 FOMC policy statement
2/1/07 Personal Income
2/1/07 Personal Spending
2/1/07 Initial Claims
2/1/07 ISM Index
2/1/07 Auto Sales
2/1/07 Truck Sales
2/2/07 Nonfarm Payrolls
2/2/07 Unemployment Rate
2/2/07 Hourly Earnings
2/2/07 Average Workweek
2/2/07 Factory Orders
2/2/07 Mich Sentiment-Rev.

Back to the Feds:
With each new report coming out, CPI, PPI, GDP, The Jobs Report, Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, and so on, the likelihood of the Feds lowering rates anytime soon has literally vaporized.

So, will they raise instead?
Don't expect it.
At least not this time.

Once again it's going to be not what the Feds do, it's what they say.
It's in the announcement that Fed Watchers will pay most attention.

For a live view of the rates, watch the 10 Year T-bond.

It's hard to find but here's a link to the 10 year on Yahoo's Bond page

 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETNX&t=1d

Remember, the 10 yr bond isn't what creates rates, but long term mortgage rates mirror what happens to the 10 yr. that's why we watch it!

 


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Mike Mueller

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