California and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Real Estate Market

Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad DayThe sky is falling! The sky is falling!

The price of real estate is falling in California!

If you own a bomb shelter, please grab the kids, a shotgun, and a seven year supply of granola bars (Chocolate Chip n' Peanut Butter, if you can) and head underground.

If you don't own a shelter, just go under your desk and put your textbook over your head. (It worked during the Cold War.)

The reason that everyone is saying that it's a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad real estate market in California is that home prices are dropping.

......................................................................................................

If the price of gasoline dropped by a dollar, would you consider that bad news? 

                                                That depends...do you own the car, or the oil wells?

How scared would you be if the price of milk dropped in half? 

                                                 Are you a single mom or a dairy farmer?

How awful would it be if luxury cars were suddenly affordable to someone with a blue collar job?

                                                Do you work for the car company, or the phone company?

...................................................................................

                                         Do you see what I'm saying?

If you're going through a divorce or have been laid off and need to sell your home right now, I feel bad about that.

If you lied about your income on a mortgage loan application and can't actually afford your monthly home loan payments, I feel slightly less bad.

But most of you have been using your home as a place to live and not as the magical ATM that spits out boats, vacations and plastic surgery.

For you, this is the best real estate market that California has seen for years.

Because you're not selling real estate. You're buying real estate.

>>>>>>>Prices are low. Mortgage rates are low. The sky is NOT falling.<<<<<<<

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Joey Aszterbaum is the Hemet Home Loan Guy and a member of the Active Rain social network of real estate professionals. To buy or refinance your home in Hemet, Riverside County, or California visit www.HemetHomeLoans.com or call 951.571.5751

 

28 Comments on California and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Real Estate Market

Joey - it is the glass half full theory for us brokers.  Whichever way we want to look at it...

03/02/2008 04:24 AM by The Mortgage & Property Connection


Dorene: That's good to hear from you. Too many real estate professionals are lamenting the depreciation instead of working the opportunity. Come back soon!

03/02/2008 04:35 AM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


Great post telling buyers that it is great news for them.  They can be saving a lot of money right now.

03/02/2008 06:02 AM by Russ Ravary - Michigan Homes for sale - Michigan Real estate & Mortgage info (Remerica Hometown One)


Joey, it's a great market for buyers.  We're holding a homebuyer's seminar next Saturday and have close to 20 people registered already.  They know it's a buyer's market and want to learn how to take advantage of it.  Yes, I feel sorry for those innocents who have to sell because of divorce, relocation, etc. and who bought at the peak.  However, I don't feel sorry for those who have owned their homes for some time and now are only going to net $150,000 instead of the $200,000 they could have made a year or two ago.  They're still coming out ahead.

03/02/2008 06:03 AM by Brian Block -- Northern Virginia & D.C. Real Estate (RE/MAX Allegiance)


Joey:

There is a buyers seminar being held on April 12-13 in Los Angeles by the California Association of Realtors. A lot of promotion is going on to get the idea across that buyers have a great opportunity. The challenge is buyers think that if they wait just a little long the prices will come down more.

The word is mind-set

03/02/2008 06:19 AM by Lorraine and Loretta Kratz (Crescent Moon Realty, Inc. & Land N Sea Auctions.)


For people who have made the right choices about buying real estate today may allow them to have a better home for less but it is still an ugly time in our business until this situation corrects itself and it will. Thanks for your post.

03/02/2008 07:06 AM by Terry Westbrook ~ Realtor(R) Grand Rapids Mi Ada/Cascade Real Estate (Five Star Real Estate, LLC Grand Rapids , MI)


I wish I had a zillion to invest right now in real estate- the best time ever for buyers.

03/02/2008 07:59 AM by Debra Gambill Realtor, N.C. / S.C (Weichert Realtor's Southern Coast)


Joey, I too wish I had saved and could invest right now. The prices are so good in my area, most are down to 1998 prices except in a few areas. 

03/02/2008 11:26 AM by Missy Caulk Ann Arbor Real Estate (Keller Williams Ann Arbor, Michigan)


Russ: Thanks for stopping in! You're so right. A couple years back a house only had to have locks on the doors to sell for $250k or more. Now you can find a home with four bedrooms and land under $200k! I wish you well.

Brian: I'm not into the cheerleading...how various economic and professional organizations promise that your home's value is going to stabilize soon. The value of real estate is not going to stabilize until it becomes reasonable again and all the foreclosures get sold. In my market, there are plenty of foreclosures still going on...but prices are also in the reasonable zone again. We don't have to PRETEND that the bad news for home sellers is almost over. We have a REALITY that the good news for buyers is here. Thanks for your comment.

Lorraine and Loretta: Thank you for visiting! You're right, there are some who aren't in the right mindset. I tend to agree, some prices are still going to drop. But let me tell you, I'm 80 miles away from Los Angeles (city) and for the last month there are buyer bidding wars on REO properties in Hemet and Riverside County. When was the last time you heard the word 'bidding wars'? For those that intend to buy and hold, I think now's the time. A big factor for me, as a mortgage loan officer, is that I think the bond market is overvalued. I'm concerned that long-term interest rates are going to go up, no matter what the Fed does with the short-term rates. And, while not ALL the homes have hit rock-bottom prices, the smart sellers HAVE priced them below even the current market. My crystal ball is in the shop, but we're already seeing the monthly mortgage payments of a 30yr fixed home loan LOWER than rent...and the ability to buy real estate and rent it out a profitable enterprise. How low will it go? My crystal ball is in the shop. What I DO know is that the people who waited for housing prices to continue to appreciate 2.5 years ago are the ones who lost out on the Sellers market. I'd hate for that to happen the other way around to my buyers.

03/02/2008 11:31 AM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


Terry: Yes...this is a localism post and does NOT mean to disparage the real estate professionals that are like the gas station owner, dairy farmer and auto manufacturer in my examples. We have to sell homes and mortgages in order to pay the bills.

However, I do NOT view it as an ugly time in our business...even if it's more challenging for me to make a living or if deals are harder to come by. Here's why:

1. It's not about me. It's about those I serve. I would LOVE to have a huge appreciation on my house (I'm actually upside down on my own house), and I'd love to have an enormous refi boom. But we need a season of affordability and solid investment.

2. Some real estate pros need to get out of the market. The ones who don't deserve the 'pro' label. Too many got in during the boom, and we're seeing the backlash of people who doubt the value of a truly professional REALTOR or mortgage lender. That is going to change soon, because all the people who don't know how to help buyers and sellers or refinancers (is that a word?) are getting out in droves. The Hemet-San Jacinto Association of Realtors roster is going to be half of what it was 3 years ago.

3. It's already happening. I don't have to compete against 1 million different mortgage loan consultants anymore. My pipeline has rocketed up.

Hang in there....if you're a quality real estate professional you will use this market to perfectly position yourself and have more business than you can handle. Go do it!

03/02/2008 11:53 AM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


Debra: I have millions of dollars to invest in real estate. Of course, it's not my money. It's Patrion Mortgage's money. Still, if you can come up with some type of down payment, I'll give you a zillion dollars. Preferably in $417,000 increments! Thank you so much for visiting.

Missy: Real estate limbo...'How low can you go?' Because of agency guideline changes, I recommend that investors put 25% down on rental properties. If prices in your area are down to 1998 prices, a lot more folks are able to come up with that much...but at least 15%. I can't help but ask (being the Hemet Home Loan Guy and all), but how is your primary residence? What is it's value? Do you have any equity? A good lender in your area may be able to help you tap that equity in a way that makes financial sense. And NOW is a great time for that...as long as you're not like me (upside down). Tax returns are also a great way to get down-payment money. Thank you so much for your comment.

03/02/2008 12:00 PM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


Joey, It definately depends on what side of the equation you are on. I spend a lot of my time working with sellers. Most of that involves giving them bad news. However the buyers I'm working with are getting some really good deals right now. Sellers just need to stay out of the market unless they truly need to sale.

03/02/2008 03:19 PM by Bryant Tutas-Tutas Towne Realty, Inc


Bryant: Yep. Like you have to do with sellers, I have to give bad news to a lot of people coming to me for a refi. And you're also right about the solution. The market will turn around when 1) Sellers who aren't serious take their homes off the market, 2) the 'summertime' Realtors (Faketors?) and mortgage pros (mortgage ho's?) get out of the business and 3) Banks sell the REO and others sell their homes at lowest possible prices. The faster prices drop, the faster things stabilize, but the waiting around doesn't help...nor, one could argue, the government 'stimulus' that delays the inevitable correction.

03/02/2008 05:21 PM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


Shannon: Thanks. What I've found is that there are more people than I can help with a mortgage in ANY market. It's just my job to find them and take good care of them. But there's no way to run out of business unless you just stop trying. People are buying. People are selling. People are refinancing. "The Market" may make it easier or more challenging, but in a way it just doesn't matter.

03/02/2008 07:04 PM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


Joey, it is all about perspective isn't it?  We have people here who think the sky is falling also and we have not even had a drop per se in home prices. 

03/03/2008 05:47 PM by Marchel Peterson Spring TX Real Estate E-Pro ABR (Results Realty)


This is very smart and right on writing!  I love the analogies!  AWESOME! :)

03/03/2008 07:17 PM by Shannon Lefevre Naples, Florida CRS (John R. Wood REALTORS Inc.)


Marchel: The glass is half sideways with a slice of purple. Thanks for sharing your perspective.

Shannon: Thanks, Shannon. Tell that to the folks that dole out the features! :) I hope you're doing well in your market.

03/03/2008 08:14 PM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


Hi Joey,
Hear! Hear!  The news media is the culprit in my opinion.

03/03/2008 08:52 PM by Cynthia Tilghman, RealtorĀ® Onslow County NC Home Specialist (Kingsbridge Realty, Inc)


Hi Joey- "The folks that dole out the features" now that's funny...but there is a little flag thing that can be submitted :)  I liked this, I even sent my lending buddy (AR Member) over here to read this....I was comparing you guys :)  The one thing you guys have in common is a sense of humor.  What you have over him is a knowledge of my area :)

Q- Do you have any 1st time buyer programs, or know anthing about the ACORN Program?

03/03/2008 09:24 PM by Kathy McGraw ~ Calif Broker (CELLing Realty)


Cynthia: I'm not sure I'd say they were the culprit, but everyone interprets the story. The news is just interpreting the story in a way that serves their interests...but not all the news. See my next comment.

03/03/2008 09:34 PM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


**UPDATE**

Maybe the Hemet Home Loan Guy's crystal ball is working again...here are two articles I came across today that I would like to share:

The Case for Foreclosures - Steven Landsburg in Slate Magazine

Warren Buffett on Housing - Northwest Indiana Real Estate Blog

03/03/2008 09:43 PM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


Kathy: Thanks. There's still plent of real estate pie, so get your piece. And I don't know your other lender friend, but does he have my dashing handsomeness? :-)

First time home buyers, eh?

ACORN - only BofA is doing it and, from what I've seen, they're not really doing it now

CalHFA program does 100%, allows 3% seller contribution.

Read about the Riverside County First Time Homebuyers Program HERE.

So, are you coming to the breakfast? Or are you going to jilt me? I don't think it will snow this time.

03/03/2008 09:52 PM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


Joey, thanks for the link, sorry for my delay in responding ... My other really big passion is politics and today was a huge and fun day.

Hoosiers for McCain

03/04/2008 10:29 PM by Steve Dalton - Northwest Indiana (Green Pointe Development)


There are huge opportunities in this market. Especially out your way for first time buyers. We are anxiously awaiting HUD posting the median prices... Buyers are lining up to get in with the new limits coming to the OC.

03/04/2008 11:48 PM by Sandra Carlisle, Realtor - Newport Beach - Corona del Mar (First Team Estates)


Steve: No worries. Thanks for dropping in.

Sandra: Yeah...that will make a much bigger difference out your way. But there are other issues than just HUD posting new medians. As a lender, I wonder who which investors will purchase the loans. Hardly anybody wants to fund loans that are non-saleable. I also wonder what effect it will have on rates for conforming loans. I remain cautiously hopeful. Take care!

03/05/2008 12:01 AM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


Joey,

Another great blog.....I am waiting on the one with The Cat in the Hat.....or Green Eggs and Ham....lol.....you made your point in this post....it is the best time in years to purchase......

03/07/2008 03:54 AM by Julie Chapman Realty Homes Brunswick Georgia


Julie: Will it get better? I don't know. I'm seeing bidding wars now, but there are plenty more foreclosures hitting the market. I'm thinking prices will drop and interest rates will rise...but what do I know? What I know is that if it's profitable to do it now, then do it now. Come back soon!

03/07/2008 02:40 PM by Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)


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Loan Officer: Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum (Patrion Mortgage)
Hemet Home Loan Guy, Joey Aszterbaum
Hemet, CA
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Hemet Mortgage and Real Estate Blog: buy or refinance, credit, things to do in Hemet, Realtor sales training and misc stuff from the Hemet Home Loan Guy a member of the Active Rain social network since 11/06.

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