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Reflections on the economic and housing outlook on Thanksgiving evening

By
Real Estate Agent with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties 01238708

Reflections on the economic and housing outlook on Thanksgiving evening in the Greater Los Angeles area.

 

 

 

Now that  we are here and another Thanksgiving day is almost in the books, as we are relaxing after being with friends and family I thought it would be timely to start looking ahead to some observations about the Greater Los Angeles real estate market.

 

Before I do that, I need to preface my comments with the fact that there are many people in the economic sector, billionaire investors and small to large investors who are bullish on the Real Estate and Economic outlook for 2014.

 

I will keep my observations to the greater Los Angeles real estate market, since that is the market with which I am most familiar. Overall, the housing market has improved in the past year and I expect it to continue into 2014. I still have concerns that the economic recovery is fragile and the employment numbers (or should I say the unemployment numbers) will have a large impact on homeownership.

 

 The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase will have a detrimental impact to  the affordability index on West Los Angeles and vicinity  for first time home buyers, i.e.,  eliminating many buyers who are on the cusp of being able to step into the Los Angeles real estate market.

 

 Equally challenging to home sales will be the long-term effects of the mortgage finance reform, the mortgage interest deduction changes and the affordable health care act. These factors will impact the real estate market even here in Los Angeles.

 

 One thing is for sure - people still will need to sell and buy homes.  Hence the housing inventory will also have an impact as to what the home prices will be like in 2014. Up to this point, we have seen price increases from the low of 5% to the high of 68% depending which part of greater Los Angeles you were looking at. World-wide Investors are still seeing values and opportunities in the Los Angeles real estate Market, a clear indication that the real estate activity will continue in a positive direction for 2014.

 

I hope this blog will help you in making some of your decisions about buying or selling a home. Should you need more specific details and advice, please does not hesitate to reach out to me directly for a “no obligation consultation”.

 

If you are considering buying or selling a luxury home, an ultra luxury home, luxury investment real estate, luxury vacation homes, or luxury beach properties in Southern California, Los Angeles, Century City, Westwood, West Hollywood, Beverly Hills, Marina Del Rey, Venice or Malibu, feel free to contact me at 310.486.1002 or homes@endrebarath.com or visit one of my websites at http://www.endrebarath.com.   I am a pet friendly realtor and I contribute a portion of my commissions to local animal rescue organizations.   

 

 

 

Nick T Pappas
Assoc. Broker ABR, CRS, SFR, e-Pro, @Homes Realty Group, Broker/Providence Property Mgmnt, LLC Huntsville AL - Huntsville, AL
Madison & Huntsville Alabama Real Estate Resource
Endre, no doubt about it that people still need to buy and sell homes...just wanted to stop by and wish you a Happy Turkey Day!
Nov 28, 2013 11:35 AM
Bob Crane
Woodland Management Service / Woodland Real Estate, KW Diversified - Stevens Point, WI
Forestland Experts! 715-204-9671

A little reflection is good to do on a day like today Endre, glad you had a happy thanksgiving.

Nov 28, 2013 01:21 PM
Jennifer Fivelsdal
JFIVE Home Realty LLC | 845-758-6842|162 Deer Run Rd Red Hook NY 12571 - Rhinebeck, NY
Mid Hudson Valley real estate connection

Endre buying and selling real estate is here to stay, like taxes:) however so many things can have an effect on how strong or weak the market will be.

Nov 28, 2013 02:22 PM
Nancy Laswick
United Real Estate - Phoenix, AZ
Your REALTOR® For The Valley Of The Sun

Endre, while I believe the housing market for 2014 could be a market continuing to move towards a more normal market I think it could be easily derailed by another government shutdown or continuing unemployment or under employment. I am cautiously optimistic. I hope you enjoyed your Thanksgiving!

Nov 28, 2013 03:04 PM
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Pasadena And Southern California 818.516.4393

Hi Endre - I believe you're right when you choose the word "fragile" to describe the recovery we have seen in the Southern California real estate market.  As Nancy commented -- cautious optimism is the phrase that comes to mind.  

Nov 28, 2013 04:13 PM
Eric Crane -- Your Full Service, Discount Fee Realtor®
DPR Realty LLC - Gilbert, AZ
Greater Metro Phoenix Arizona

Hi, Endre -- good review of the current status and I hope that you and yours are enjoying your Thanksgiving weekend!  Eric

Nov 29, 2013 06:03 AM
Laura Allen, Lake Tahoe - Truckee Real Estate for Sale TahoeLauraRealEstate.com
Coldwell Banker Realty, Tahoe City, CA (530) 414-1260 - Tahoe City, CA
Tahoe Real Estate Agent Helping Buyers and Sellers

Endre - As another year comes to an end, and we review the numbers, I hope that 2014 is an even better year! 

Nov 29, 2013 08:24 AM
Silvia Dukes PA, Broker Associate, CRS, CIPS, SRES
Tropic Shores Realty - Ich spreche Deutsch! - Spring Hill, FL
Florida Waterfront and Country Club Living
Hi Endre, some serious thinking at the end of a holiday! Hope you enjoyed the day!
Nov 29, 2013 08:50 AM
Kathleen Daniels, Probate & Trust Specialist
KD Realty - 408.972.1822 - San Jose, CA
Probate Real Estate Services

Endre, I would echo your Los Angles forecast in my area as well.  I wonder how many people will lose their homes because of the affordable health care act.   It will be a tough decision for some … do I make my health care payment or my mortgage payment.  Many will be screwed either way. 

 

Nov 29, 2013 11:04 PM
Debbie Reynolds, C21 Platinum Properties
Platinum Properties- (931)771-9070 - Clarksville, TN
The Dedicated Clarksville TN Realtor-(931)320-6730

Hi Endre, I think your forecast can apply anywhere across the country. I am optimistically looking for good things in 2014.

Nov 29, 2013 11:09 PM
Jimmy Faulkner
Florida. Homes Realty & Mortgage - Wantagh, NY
The Best Of St. Augustine

Endre: The big investors are still going to be buying this year because people need housing, just like water and food. The interest rates will have a big affect on housing but all will be sold.

Nov 30, 2013 04:18 AM
Deepak Chauhan Asso-Broker, MLO
Versailles Property - Irvine, CA
Your Solution-Oriented Realtor

I PREDICT THE INTEREST RATES WILL GO SKY HIGH BY JUNE-JULY 2014

Nov 30, 2013 12:41 PM