Vancouver's Real Estate Market taking a Pause from Rising Prices
For a quite solid 18 months the average home sales prices in the Vancouver and Clark County WA area had risen steadily and quite strongly - until the Fall of 2013. With the arrival of the traditional slower Autumn season, combined with the economic uncertainty caused by the shut-down of the US government, we have now seen our first significant and sustained break in rising prices in this recovery phase.
This first chart presented here is showing the number of Resale Homes Sold (Excludes New Construction), with a short term trend line equaling the 3-month rolling average; and the longer term trend line equaling the 12-month rolling average.
As you can see in this chart the seasonal down-turn as shown by the 3-month (Red) average line has taken a sharper, "less rounded" decrease in quantity of properties sold. In fact, the decrease has been significant to cause a leveling if not slight decrease in the longer term 12-month rolling average (Blue) line.
Moving to the current action on Home Prices, the next chart shows very "choppy" action with the 3-month/short-term trend line, to where in November it actually dropped far enough to pierce and break below the 12-month/long-term price trend line! The long-term trend line also shows a "leveling" which is the first time that has occurred since early 2012.
From our data supporting this chart, the Long Term average price increased 10.22% from November 2012 to November 2013; yet the Short Term average price was only 3.94% higher for the same time period - which is very indicative of how strong the near-term price correction is.
The National Association of Realtors is also reporting lower home sales nationwide, while average sales prices are still higher than they were last year.
Another local Question we like to answer is: How Much of the Clark County Home Sales are Distressed Properties? For this Report we consider Distressed Property Categories to be: Short Sales Homes and Bank Owned Homes. A quick review of the closed sales for the past 3 months shows 139 Short Sales, and 119 Bank Owned Home Sales; which computes to 20% of the total sales for that time period. When the first 6 months of 2013 had 30.7% of the total sales as Distressed Properties, it is clear this segment has improved by the lower number of these properties sold.
[Note: we recognize that the Foreclosure homes purchased at the Auction by Investors then "flipped" or quickly sold to the public Will Increase the count for "Distressed Properties" however, we have no reliable way of capturing and reporting on that element.]
FFinally, with home-loan interest rates at historically low levels, we anticipate another buyer-surge come the first of the new year. We are also still in a Seller's Market with the available inventory level at 4 months or less (in other words, if you've been Thinking about selling, now may be the time to give us a Call!).
---TThe charts in this report (prepared by John Slocum, our resident statistician) are based on home sales recorded in the Vancouver MLS system (RMLS), excluding sales of mobile home; and shows the purchase activity since 2009; charting the 3 month rolling average number of sales, and the 12 month rolling average. This "smoothing" of the trend-data helps illustrate the short-term and longer term trends in Clark County's real estate market.
Disclaimer: as with any real estate statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the data was acquired. We deem the data and reports reliable but not guaranteed.