Amid the frenzy of media doomsday real estate market reports, it's important to take a step back and look at the real numbers. The news media nay-sayers cry over and over about how our foreclosure rates have doubled nationwide, and homeowners in default have reached critical numbers. Well let's take a look at those numbers, shall we.

Nationally, foreclosures are up from .4% to .8%. Sure, they've doubled, but in total less than 1% of homeowners are in foreclosure. Woah, sound the alarms. Additionally, more than 97% of homeowners are paying their mortgages on time as agreed. Don't know about you, but this most certainly is not my idea of a crisis.

The line between news and entertainment is very much blurred. To say those who report the news are drama queens would not be far from the truth. The news media is paid by calling attention to themselves. The more people who tune in, the better the ratings and the more advertising revenue they generate. That doesn't always mean they are doing the public a service, unfortunately.

Has the mortgage industry impacted the real estate industry as a whole? Undoubtedly. Does this mean we're in some unrecoverable economic crisis that is going to throw us into some great depression? Well, only if the general public allows those queenie nay-sayers to negatively influence their decisions to buy and/or sell real estate.

On the West coast, real estate over the past 100 years has historically appreciated at an average annual rate of 10% per year. This means housing prices, on average, double every decade. That's a pretty solid return, which yields several percentage points above and beyond today's interest rates, which are still very low and favorable.

In the Puget Sound Region, while the market isn't quite as robust as it used to be, it is still very much active. For those who are waiting for the bottom of the market to fallout and prices to decline by 20%, you're in for a very rude awakening. That's highly unlikely to happen here locally. If you're waiting for the market to hit rock bottom, there is absolutely no way to measure the exact point in which this will occur until prices begin to rise sharply again.

The Seattle area market historically is one of, if not the, last to follow a national downturn trend and the first to feel an upswing. Further, we are fortunate to have not one, but two very high volume international seaports and a broad industry base that is still bringing a lot of new employees into the area. It is highly probable we have seen the worst of it already. Don't believe everything you hear or read until you have diligently gathered all the facts.

Your success is my business,

Brad Davis, ERA McGrady & Associates, Inc.

Seattle, WA