What is Punxsutawney Phil's prediction for 2014? Apparently, it's long winter. But, is his prediction bad news or good news?
You can read more about Punxatawney Phil on the official Groundhog Day website. This has all sorts of info on the history of Groundhog's day as well as a schedule of events.
Of course, what's missing here is the historic predictions vs. historic accuracy. The site claims that Phil is 100% accurate. Hmmm. Interesting.
Well according to Stormfax.com, the world's most famous Groundhog is only 39% accurate! Wow, that's worse than what a coin toss would predict.
Historically, Phil has predicted an early spring less than 15% of the time. So, it's more likely for him to see his shadow and predict a long winter. But, maybe I should hope that he predicts a long winter...since he is only 39% accurate. Maybe my hopes of an early spring will come true.
I also wonder if the other groundhog predictors across the country agree w/ Phil's prediction. I mean surely the weather conditions across the country will differ and hence the ability to see a shadow can vary.
BTW, the Farmer's Almanac accuracy is about the same. It kind of makes you wonder why we place so much emphasis on this. Predicting long term weather is kind of futile.