Yesterday’s tug of war ended up going nowhere for stocks but rates got a little help from the morning data and ended trending downward.
Today’s data is already streaming in with a job cut report indicating less layoffs were announced in Feb. Financial services lead the charge with cuts in the mortgage operations of larger banks being the main cause. It’s not a refi market anymore…
But that was the early data. At 8:30a we got a Gallup payroll vs. population, a productivity and costs report and the all-important weekly Jobless Claims report. Know that the data is trending positive, especially Jobless Claims which show a very slow but steady improvement in anticipation of Employment Friday tomorrow. Preopen is pointing towards stocks trending upward and rates pressured up as well.
We still have Factory Orders data due at 10a and a number of Fed speakers but I’m looking for the day to be good to stocks which should keep the upward pressure on rates. Ukraine is the wild card in all this of course. The markets aren’t worried about it anymore but if shots are fired that would quickly change.
Tomorrow’s data will be the big deal though and today's trades are just bets on what we will see tomorrow. Personally I’m expecting an Employment Report that shows improvement but I’m not so sure that will translate to higher rates as it has in the recent past. Either way do know the risk is there and the safe bet is to lock now.
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