MMG Weekly: Will April Reports Bring May Retorts? - Housing

Last Week in Review: Housing reports were front and center, and tensions from overseas impacted the markets.

Forecast for the Week: Look for key reports on housing, inflation, manufacturing and jobs. Plus, the Fed meets.

View: Build stronger connections on LinkedIn with these power-user tips.

"Reality is the leading cause of stress amongst those in touch with it." Lily Tomlin. The reality of the 2014 housing market is quite different than last year's, according to recent housing reports.

In other housing news to note, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported that its February Home Price Index (HPI) rose by 6.9 percent from the same period last year. This was the weakest reading in 13 months.

What does this mean for home loan rates? Typically good news helps Stocks improve at the expense of Bonds, including Mortgage Bonds (the type of Bonds on which home loan rates are based). However, Bonds and home loan rates were able to benefit last week from the increased tensions between Russia and the Ukraine. This caused investors to move their money into the safe haven of Bonds, helping Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates improve.

Whether these improvements continue could be contingent on several potentially market-moving items in the coming week, including the Jobs Report for April and the Fed's next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Remember that the Fed is now purchasing $30 billion in Treasuries and $25 billion in Mortgage Bonds to help stimulate the economy and housing market. This is down from the original $85 billion per month that the Fed had been purchasing. It will be important to see if the Fed announces additional tapering of these purchases at its upcoming meeting.

The bottom line is that now remains a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance, as home loan rates remain attractive compared to historical levels. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

This week's economic reports will touch on a large sector of the economy, with several key reports to note.

• Economic data kicks off on Monday with Pending Home Sales for March, followed by the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for February on Tuesday.
• Tuesday also features Consumer Confidence for April.
• In the manufacturing sector, look for Chicago PMI on Wednesday and the ISM Index
  on Thursday.
• Also on Wednesday, the first reading of Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of 2014 will be released.
• Thursday brings Personal Income, Personal Spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will also be delivered as usual.
• That leads us to Friday when one of the most closely-watched economic reports will be released—the Jobs Report for April, which features Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.

In addition, the Fed's next regularly-scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee begins on Tuesday, with the Policy Statement being delivered Wednesday. It will be important to see if the Fed announces additional tapering to its Bond buying program—and how Bonds and home loan rates react.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further—a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates rebounded late last week. With a potentially volatile week ahead, I'll be watching the markets closely.

Power-user Tips for LinkedIn

Chances are you know how powerful LinkedIn can be for networking, but like most everything in business there are secrets power-users know to help them stand out from the crowd. Keep these tips in mind as you use LinkedIn to start building stronger connections, even faster.

Be specific! When you ask someone to connect, change the default message, which reads: "I'd like to add you to my professional network on LinkedIn." Instead, personalize your invitation to say something more inviting, or succinctly explain how you know the person or why you want to connect.

It's not personal, it's business. Because LinkedIn is a social media platform for professionals, keep your activity strictly business. If you get into heated discussions frequently, create controversial posts, or act overly casual in your comments, just remember that potential employers or customers could notice.

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Click here for even more LinkedIn power-user tips and, as always, please feel free to pass these tips along to your team, clients and colleagues.