NegotiationHello all, I know it's been quite some time since I've posted.  I saw some posts today I thought I'd pass on.  Seattle based Redfin today came out with a study declaring a customer advantage in savings prices.  Ultimately however as I looked at the numbers and how the study was conducted, I found the results to be less conclusive than they are portrayed.

I'd give the company kudos for their customer satisfaction ratings.  If a company can create a consistent satisfactory experience in this business I think they are doing a good thing for the industry.

The main point that is being expressed however, is that the company can save customers money through the negotiated sales price.  My first thought however after reading the claim was how would they account for the negotiated concessions I'm used to?  The company claims a buyer's sales price advantage of .928%  This is not saying much.  It's not saying much because final sales price is not necessarily reflective of the ultimate results for the buyer and seller.

I've seen a lot of deals cross my desk as a sales person, a real estate broker, and a mortgage broker.   The deals I've seen take many forms.  In my experience The ultimate selling price, is NOT a reflection of how well either the buyer or the seller was served.  Most every deal involved some kind of negotiation and concessions that were worked on between the parties that involved any number of things, including property improvements, closing costs and loan fee arrangements.  The net sales price did not necessarily reflected net concessions to favoring either party.

I actually discussed this last March, in going over the impact the practice might have on comparable sales data.  My example deal was one where I was the sales person.  In addition to negotiating a final price it involved $20,000 to be refunded to the buyer to go toward "current and future updates" on the property.  The seller preferred to do it this way as he was a builder and did not want the reduced price to impact his future sales.  While there were other things negotiated into the deal, that $20,000 reduction would never have shown up under the analysis performed by the company.

Just a thought. Did I miss something?

 

17 Comments on Calculating "Advantage" Redfin study misleads

MAR
25
2008
231,333 Points 64 Featured Posts Outside Blog

(Is it OK to just say Hi?  Hi!) 

<Delete me if not OK!!> ;)

6:10pm • #1
51 Featured Posts
LOL! Hi WVAgent!
6:13pm • #2
577,859 Points 95 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router
Hi Caleb, wow what a shocker to see you on my subscribers side. How are you? Our MLS is required to publish concessions, which helps in doing CMA's. I'm sure Zillow doesn't publish that information. 
6:16pm • #3
51 Featured Posts

Missy,

I'm doing great.  Thanks :)
I've heard MLS's are being better about collecting more nuanced data like you've mentioned.  I'm very happy to hear about this.  I think the more accurate we can get the better off everyone is.

6:24pm • #4
106,474 Points 8 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Hit Router

I was so excited to see you pop up on my subscription list!  Our mls is notorious for agents not posting concessions and as an appraiser and broker it drives me batty.  Soetimes it's obivous but most of the time it is hidden for the exact reason you posted - builders don't want to negatively affect a development, so they artificially keep it stable, where surrounding subdivisions are taking a 5% to 10% hit.  You know something is going on but cannot prove it.

It's no wonder that so many consumers hold us in low regard, the paper games are making many of us look like car salesmen.

Please don't stay away so long this time, we miss you.

6:35pm • #5
601,664 Points 111 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Oh, I'm so happy to see you here Caleb!!!  You see....people remember you and when you popped up...woohoo! Missed you!

No...you didn't miss anything... we have a section for concessions when we're closing out the mls data with "sold" to reflect the reason for and amount. (though not all insert the info...the majority do)

6:39pm • #6
403,907 Points 179 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Well, if this isn't a wonderfully exciting and pleasant surprise to see your face pop-up on my subscription list! How ya doing? I read the article when it was first posted, and felt the data was somewhat suspect as well. People can make data say whatever they want. My primary concern for their model is adequate representation and advocacy. It's not always about saving money. Getting a good deal is one thing, but trying to save money without adequate and relentless representation....well...that's my soap box!

Miss ya, Caleb. Hope you're doing well...

6:48pm • #7
MAR
26
2008
408,865 Points 74 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Caleb my main man...how are you bro...I get calls from appraisers and agents asking me whether or not their were any concessions built in to the deals i have closed...I usually do not have these things in front of me but in our MLS you won't see it...we won't just give out someones HUD from a sale...thats the clients private info. I once had an appraiser ask me to send them the HUD..nope  it ain't happening without the express written consent of both clients..if the information is true then it should be noted.
6:47am • #8
121,914 Points 22 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Hi Caleb,

Good hearing from you again.

You are right, it's always "Price AND Terms". Some terms are of the concession variety, but others can include free rentbacks, As-Is sales, extra repairs (seller agreeing to Section2 Pest work), personal property thown in (furniture, wash/dry/fridge) and on and on. (Our MLS doesn't report concessions, btw.) I have seen sellers take less on their price only because the buyer had a giant downpayment and the seller was convinced that the bank would do the loan too.

So yes, the price is the main indicator, but doesn't give the whole picture on the transaction.

11:31am • #9
365,214 Points 95 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Hi Caleb-boy I have missed you! and so happy to see you here! :)  Oh how we make numbers work in our favor sometimes...in real estate sometimes there is more to the story...for us all we know is cash, conventional, fha or va...no seller's concessions included and Neal is right so often other pro's and appraisers call for that info. 

11:53am • #10
51 Featured Posts

Michelle, Sally, Rich, Neal, Mary, and Midori,

Thank you all so much, for the welcomes!

Regarding Redfin's report, you're all validating my thoughts on this issue.  It seems to me Redfin is either being disingenuous or the company possesses a lack of understanding about how real estate transactions are conducted.  In either case they are demonstrating that they are a poor advocates for the people they serve.

12:21pm • #11
130,294 Points 9 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Hi Caleb!!! Good to see you, can you tell you are missed? (If Sarah can just say hi, so can i!)
12:30pm • #12
MAR
27
2008
51 Featured Posts
Hi Lysa, Thank you! ;)
9:52am • #13
142,191 Points 9 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Caleb, Great to see you! What a great discussion. Sort of scary when you think that many will take their research at face value, not knowing the nuances of price AND terms!!! Thanks for generating this discussion!

2:14pm • #14
407,323 Points 72 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Caleb...

I don't care about data either. We both know it can be spun by any spider who chooses to spin it :)

Good to see you old friend.

And just in case we don't see you again anytime soon...

Be well and make lotsa money.

I'm off to eat my daily ration of peanut butter :) 

TLW...ROAR!

3:18pm • #15
JAN
05
19 Featured Posts

You should post this question on the Redfin forum. THey will be happy to reply.

I believe they do it based on the NET. I dunno.

In Virginia we CAN see seller subsidy. Do they not show that in WA? Let me know. I'd love to run the numbers here in VA to see if they tend to do less closing cost and home repair credits.

Actually I just ran some quick numbers... Out of their 67 deals in Virginia I found a .7% average seller subsidy. The last time I ran a report for northern virginia, it was more like 1.5% for an average listing.

Actually I just ran 100 random homes that closed in 12/29/08 and the average seller subsidy was 1.23% or over .5% higher.

So that might be statistically significant. Part of that might be because lenders won't allow large seller subsidies since you are rebating. So they require that you offer a LOWER asking price with less seller subsidy. But a NET (after subsidy) that is .5% higher.

So if they say (and I forgot what they say) that they beat the average Realtor by 1%, that number *might* be more like .5%. Then add in the rebate for your total savings vs an average agent.

I would actually like to say, that I think Redfin IS better than the average agent.

I try not to compare myself with average though.

Frank

2:39pm • #16
JAN
08
51 Featured Posts

Frank,

At the time of this writing they did not publish this information in NWMLS were I worked. I don't know what they do now, but I do believe the information is important.  Since the initial post they restated the numbers (I see you've commented there) on a weighted average that is significantly smaller, .6%. It's That, then by your calculations would put them more at par.  Which, I would say is still a good thing for them.

1:03pm • #17

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Caleb Mardini

Bellevue, WA

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