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Housing Investors Settle Into a Holding Pattern

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Real Estate Broker/Owner with CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments 521400, 1501015, 01795582

Housing Investors Settle Into a Holding Pattern

Investors Turn Focus to Generating Steady Income From Tenants

 

This REPOST could be a sign of things to come in what lies ahead for real estate investors and even potential future HOMEBUYERS. Could this be the tip of the iceberg for what the future is trying to tell us about the REAL ESTATE MARKET in general?

 
 
May 20, 2014 7:16 p.m. ET

After a buying binge that helped drive the housing recovery, big investors are being forced to rethink the home-rental business.

With bargains less plentiful, executives are slowing property purchases and turning their focus to generating steady income from tenants.

AJ Mast for The Wall Street Journal

A spike in home prices over the past two years was quicker and more striking than many expected, squeezing returns and raising concerns about the industry's growth prospects.

Small investors long have bought and sold homes. But two years ago when companies such as private-equity giantBlackstone Group BX +3.30% LP got into the business, backers said it could emerge as an asset class rivaling publicly owned apartment-rental companies, which own over 600,000 units and have a stock-market value of $88 billion.

The companies jumped into distressed markets, buying foreclosed properties and other homes at depressed prices with plans to fix them up, rent them and eventually sell at a profit. But buyers have slowed their pace after acquiring roughly 140,000 homes worth about $20 billion.

The reason: the unexpectedly sharp recovery in the price of homes over the past two years. In housing markets hardest hit by the bust—places like Phoenix, Las Vegas and much of Southern California—prices have risen as much as 55% off their postcrash lows. Nationally, prices are up 11.4% in the past two years, according to Zillow Inc.

"The distressed wave has largely passed," said Jonathan Gray, head of real estate for New York-based Blackstone, which has spent $8.6 billion on some 45,000 homes and is the biggest player in the sector.

At the peak of its buying in July 2013, Blackstone was spending about $140 million a week on homes; now it is spending roughly $30 million to $40 million. "We didn't anticipate prices going up 20% a year," Mr. Gray said.

Rising prices have forced many investors to accept lower returns than they originally had projected in certain markets, or to buy homes in new cities where the price appreciation has been less rapid. Two years ago, investors could buy in Sunbelt markets such as Phoenix and Las Vegas for gross yields that were in the 15% range, according to Green Street Advisors. That has fallen to around 10%, often lower.

Many investors have decided to hold onto homes for longer than they originally expected because a larger proportion of investor returns is coming from rent instead of the home's rising value.

"The initial investment thesis was to invest in these homes, make a nice return on the way, and be positioned to sell them for a nice profit," said Gary Beasley, co-CEO of Starwood Waypoint Residential Trust, one of four public companies in the business. "As we got into it in the first year or two, it became clear that it might be more valuable to hold onto these homes in the long term, and really treat them like a scattered-site apartment building."

A recent Morgan Stanley report found that buy-to-rent investors have bought about $400 million worth of homes a month in the first few months of 2014, down from about $520 million a month last year.

Investor demand has cooled for stock in the four rental-home companies that went public to fund their expansion. Only American Homes 4 Rent has a stock trading above its IPO price.

American PropertyGroup says its search for yield in the Midwest is paying off. Above, an Indianapolis home. AJ Mast for The Wall Street Journal

Paul Puryear, director of real-estate research for Raymond James & Associates, said investors have been cool to the stocks in part because home-price growth has leveled off, and because the industry still hasn't grown to a critical mass. "There are too many skeptics in the market," he said.

Industry executives say there is plenty of money to be made from renting. They say more households became renters after the downturn because of the high rate of foreclosure and the inability or unwillingness of many to buy.

Indeed, apartment rents have been steadily rising for 17 quarters, according to real-estate data firm Reis Inc. REIS +0.84% They are now 11% higher than they were in late 2009 when they hit their postcrash low, Reis says.

Irvine, Calif.-based American Property Group's search for yield in the Midwest is paying off, according to its CEO, Saman Shams. Recent acquisitions include a three-bedroom house with a big front yard on North Cherry Lake Lane in Indianapolis. About a month ago, the company paid $67,000 for the home and is spending $15,000 on renovations.

The plan is to rent the house for $1,150 a month. After costs, this will produce just under $10,000 in net income, or an annual net yield of 11.2%, much higher than the 5% to 7% net yields most investors are getting in other markets. "We're holding these homes for the long term," Mr. Shams said.

Analysts say the growth of the industry will depend in large part on whether investors can continue to get the better of traditional buyers. Investors have had an advantage in many markets because they have been able to pay cash and close quickly.

But that could change if the economy improves and mortgages get easier to obtain. Individuals may be able to outbid investors because they can get lower interest rates and aren't as concerned about rate of return.

Write to Robbie Whelan at robbie.whelan@wsj.com and Conor Dougherty atconor.dougherty@wsj.com

 

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John DL Arendsen, Broker, General & Manufactured Home Contractor and Dealer 

TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments

TAG (The Arendsen Group) Real Estate Sales & Investments is a full service, one-stop, turnkey, family owned and operated real estate brokerage, General Contractor, Manufactured Home Contractor, Developer, Investor, Property Manager, Interior Design, Engineering, architectural, Landscape design, Expert Witness, Consulting, Curative Title and Troubleshooting company with over 100 years of combined experience in the San Diego real estate sales, construction, design & development arena.

 

 

 

 

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Comments (3)

Donald Hester
NCW Home Inspections, LLC - Wenatchee, WA
NCW Home Inspections, LLC

John, We still are going pretty good in my area. This is partly due to restructuring of the USDA home loan map for our area. 

May 21, 2014 12:34 PM
John DL Arendsen
CREST "BACKYARD' HOMES, ON THE LEVEL General & Manufactured Home Contractor, TAG Real Estate Sales & Investments - Leucadia, CA
Crest Backyard Homes "ADU" dealer & RE Developer

Keep on keeping on Donald. That's GOOD NEWS!

May 21, 2014 12:37 PM
Joe Petrowsky
Mortgage Consultant, Right Trac Financial Group, Inc. NMLS # 2709 - Manchester, CT
Your Mortgage Consultant for Life

I have been an investor for many years, I am never not buying. It doesn't matter to me if the market is going up or down, I just have to adjust how and what I buy.

Thank you for commenting on my post.

May 22, 2014 10:14 AM