Sandy comes up East Coast in October 2012
Hey all...sorry to be a weather geek, but our recent hurricane seasons just fascinate me. It's either all or nothing, with Superstorm Sandy in 2012 and then, last year, we had "La Nada." It's especially funny because forecasters warned of a bad La Nina storm season for summer 2013, especially in August and September.
Plus, in our business, we need to "saddle up" for storms that may flood home and business owners.
Lately, we need a weather vane for events like the microburst last June in Westchester County and our Polar Vortexes that caused frozen pipes this January.
We have all hands on deck in weather disasters, especially if Superstorm Sandy is our "new normal!" BTW: Very exciting to announce our new Small Woman Owned business, alongside our Servpro. My construction side is All Hands on Decks, Kitchens & Baths. We'll try to throw an Open House for that one on or about our 5th anniversary for Servpro of Scarsdale / Mount Vernon.
So...with a supposedly slow hurricane season on tap this year, there are a few reasons why scholastic and other weather forecasters are calling for fewer storms in 2014. Southern Westchester and the east coast of the U.S. will see a below average storm season, according to national weather services, the Feds and NOAA and even universities in Colorado and on national newscasts.
First, we look like we are developing an El Nino pattern in the Pacific this year -- or what I call "fewer storms, but more severe," if they make landfall in the U.S. The science of it is that El Nino seasons mark a warming in the Pacific Ocean along the equator that suppresses tropical storm development around the planet.
El Nino years usually mean a reduced number of storms and hurricane development. An El Nino pattern in the Pacific actually changes the entire planet's rain and weather conditions (NOAA).
But, forecasters at Colorado University and with the federal government are warning that it will only take one storm to wreak havoc -- can you say Superstorm Sandy or Andrew?! They are all urging Americans to be prepared for any storm. That's storms with 39mph+ winds that are tropical storms, on up to hurricanes with 79+ mph winds.
Also, after Superstorm Sandy, officials warm that storm surge can be the most deadly factor in hurricane conditions.
Basically, I'm a weather junky because I want to know what to wear...oh, and our family business is weather driven, I watch the action off of the coast of Africa, from the Sudan desert to the Caribbean Islands.
El Nino conditions can reduce the number and instensity of storms coming off Africa's northern and western coast.
They also lower the chance for hurricanes to develp in the Atlantic Ocean.
The El Nino, which warms part of the Pacific every few years and changes rain and temperature patterns around the world.
This year's El Nino pattern will likely reduce the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes, per usual, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in New York City.
Cooler temperatures on the surface of the Atlantic Ocean compared with recent years will also lower the probability of hurricane formation, according to NOAA's top forecasters.
Accuweather and other top forecast networks are saying that they expect about eight to 13 named storms (probably tropical with less than 39 mph winds. They are calling for about three to six hurricanes, with two storms making landfall in the eastern United States between June and late fall.
But, forecasters noted in New York recently, that El Nino conditions have not developed yet in the Pacific, so it's early days yet.
That said, it's only May and the Pacific had its first named storm that took aim at Mexico.
Meteorologists are calling for one or two major hurricanes by Fall 2014, with winds over 110 miles per hour.
That is, one or two Cateogory 3 hurricanes could develop, with higher winds along the lines of Superstorm Sandy. It was an El Nino year, when she arrived in Southern New Jersey as Cat 2-3 storm, then hit the New York Tri-state area as a mere Tropical Storm on Oct. 29, 2012.
The six-month storm season begins June 1 and ends on November 31 each year. We are only supposed to reach the I's in the hurricane name alphabet, forecaster say.
These are some of the names for the 2014 Atlantic season:
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
For a full list of upcoming hurricane names, go to: noaa.gov
Have a great summer, to all!
~ Hillary
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