Last Week in Review

GOING ONCE....GOING TWICE....SOLD, FOR $36 BILLION! That's right, if you were in the market to buy new Bonds; this was your week, with $36 Billion in new Bond issues being offered by the US Treasury. The auctions were well received throughout the week - it's always important to gauge investor appetite during these auctions, as lackluster buying means that buyers feel that rates will be higher down the road. But last week's offering was well received by both US and foreign investors, which means that they feel that the rate market will remain somewhat stable ahead. Foreign buyers who seek a safe, high rate of return on their money love our US Bonds - and their continued investment in our Bond market has helped keep Bond prices high, and therefore, home loan interest rates low. Based on the good result of the auctions, Bond prices and home loan rates improved throughout the week, but then lost some ground on Frid ay to end the week right back where they started.

So what happened Friday? First, some Traders saw prices as topping out, and decided to sell and take their profits. Additionally, there were several Fed officials on tour, including St. Louis Fed President William Poole. Poole mentioned increased defaults in home loans to risky borrowers, and said that rates may rise as a result. The talk of rising home loan rates was enough to spook Traders ahead of the weekend - and many decided to take even more chips off the table.

The Fed Chairman himself was on the speaking circuit, and an interesting comment Mr. Bernanke made had to do with the increasing differential between earnings of a four year college grad, vs. a high school grad with no college experience. A college graduate made 75% more than their high school graduate counterparts last year - a trend that has been increasing for many years. For example, in 1979, the differential between the college and high school grads earnings were 38%. Still significant, but the importance of that college diploma appears to be growing every year.

AND WHEN THE FED ISN'T ON TOUR, THEY'RE PROBABLY ON THE PHONE...AND JUST LIKE US, THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE INCREASING COSTS OF TELECOM SERVICES. MAYBE THEY SHOULD READ THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW TO LEARN HOW TO TRIM THEIR BILLS EVERY MONTH.

Forecast for the Week

The week ahead has a host of potentially market-moving reports...and at the heart of it will be Retail Sales coming out on Valentines Day. This report may come in a little stronger than normal due to all of the gift card purchases made during the holiday season. Stores don't count gift cards as sales - until they are redeemed. So since gift cards were such a hot holiday item this year, many recipients may have gone on spending sprees in January, thereby leading to a potentially hot Retail Sales number this week, which could pressure home loan rates higher.

After a couple of weeks of improvement, Bond prices hit a tough ceiling and have retreated lower. Unless there is some Bond-friendly economic news in store, Bond prices will likely follow this trend, causing home loan rates to worsen slightly this week.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 09, 2007) Japanese Candlestick Chart
The Mortgage Market View...

You've got your own cell phone bill, plus those of your family members, your home phone bill, your long distance bill, your internet bill...the list gets long in a hurry when it comes to paying for what are now considered "basic" telecom needs. And paying this stack of bills can be not only time consuming, but costly. This month, take a few minutes to try out these simple ideas to see if you are getting the best deal on your telecom...your savings can add up in a real hurry.

In the fast moving telecom industry, loyalty pays. Call up your current provider, and ask what benefits you might be able to gain the longer you stay their client, by locking in a longer contract, or bundling several services or lines into their company. But at the same time, watch for getting too "bundled up"...although packaged deals can simplify life and consolidate the monthly bills, convenience could be costly. Be sure to research both individually packaged telecom services and bundled packages, and then make the best cost decision.

Plus, new deals are rolled out almost every single day, so it's worthwhile to make a quick call to see if another plan has become available that might more closely suit your needs. Take a good look at the plan you are on, and make sure that it makes sense based on your actual usage patterns. Many flat fee plans seem like a good deal, but if you are routinely not using a good percentage of those minutes, another plan might make more sense. In fact - did you know the average cell phone customer only uses 25% of the minutes they have paid for on their flat fee plan? If this is you...consider changing to a smaller package. Additionally, if your package allows for unlimited local and long-distance calls for a flat fee and you use less than 300 long-distance minutes per month, a per-minute plan may actually be less expensive than a flat fee plan. And don't worry about dragging out all your old bills to analyze it - it takes only a quick phone call to your current provider , and they can help you quickly and easily review your usage patterns.

Being "telecom-hip" can also come with a steep price tag for all the extra bells and whistles...so make sure you really need them. Determine what features you have on your landlines and cell phones, and see what you can shave off. For example, if you select caller ID but opt out of *69, you could save a few bucks a month. And if your package has caller ID, you probably don't need *69 anyways, which simply lets you dial back the number that just called you. With a cell phone it can be pretty cool to use the internet, send and receive pictures and video...but how much is cool costing you? This service alone could be costing as much as $20 per month, so if you're not using it regularly, consider scratching that feature.

Telecom services are now a part of our everyday lives and expenses...so taking just a few minutes to do some research could save you big bucks every single month!

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 12 - February 16

DateETEconomic Report ForEstimateActualPriorImpact
Tue. February 1308:30Balance of TradeDec-$59.5B -$58.2BModerate
Wed. February 1408:30Retail SalesJan0.3% 0.9%HIGH
Wed. February 1408:30Retail Sales ex-autoJan0.3% 1.0%HIGH
Wed. February 1410:30Crude Inventories2/09NA -449KModerate
Thu. February 1508:30Jobless Claims (Initial)2/10310K 311KModerate
Thu. February 1508:30Empire State IndexFeb11.0 9.1Moderate
Thu. February 1509:15Capacity UtilizationJan81.7% 81.8%Moderate
Thu. February 1509:15Industrial ProductionJan0.0% 0.4%Moderate
Thu. February 1512:00Philadelphia Fed IndexFeb5.0 8.3HIGH
Fri. February 1608:30Housing StartsJan1610K 1642KModerate
Fri. February 1608:30Building PermitsJan1590K 1613KModerate
Fri. February 1608:30Producer Price Index (PPI)Jan-0.6% 0.9%Moderate
Fri. February 1608:30Core Producer Price Index (PPI)Jan0.2% 0.2%Moderate
Fri. February 1610:00Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)Feb97.0 96.9Moderate
 

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