I've just spent the last hour or so scratching my head over economic theories. The rules I was taught says that when supply exceeds demand, prices go down and when demand exceeds supply, prices go up. Nope. Not so. Not true. Not in our area anyway.
The first quarter of 2008 is already complete (where in the heck did that time go?) and the stats are in. Here are some highlights from the residential market data taken from our Georgian Triangle (Ontario) Real Estate Board Multiple Listings System (MLS®) data:
Listings
The number of residential listings in the Georgian Triangle areas as a whole is up 32% from last month with 252 new listings registered. This is down 12% from March 2007.
Sales
The number of residential sales in March was up 15% over the previous month with 98 properties sold. This is down from March '07 when 107 units sold.
Sales in the first quarter of 2008 were up slightly compared to the first quarter of 2007.
Prices
Here's the rub. Although the supply is up more than the demand, the average sale price (based on a 12 month average) was up at the end of March '08 by 7% over March '07 and is even up for the last few months. In fact, the current average sale price of a residential property in the Georgian Triangle is at an all-time high of about $293,000.
Clearview $322,200
Collingwood $246,500
Meaford $257,500
Blue Mountain $467,000
Wasaga Beach $251,900
The sales-to-listings ratio is now at a buyers market level in every area except for Wasaga Beach and Meaford but we have not seen this translated in prices. Not yet anyway.
So here are a few of my thoughts on this. The market has performed better year to date than many expected and, the rise in the average prices continues. Having said that, sales in the last two weeks of March appear to have dropped dramatically and I suspect April numbers will be less positive. The listing inventory is increasing, the sales to listing ratio is dropping and the number of expired listings is also increasing. These are indicators of a slowing market.
The big question we all have on our minds is, will the spring bring renewed life to the market? Will world news and media doom frighten buyers or will consumer confidence and low interest rates propel continued activity?
When it’s time to buy or sell real estate in the Collingwood, Blue Mountain or Georgian Triangle area, contact Marg, an experienced and competent Broker who’s ready whenever you are!
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