Tampa Real Estate Market Update for September 2014
September's numbers for real estate activity across Hillsborough County went pretty much as anticipated, with most areas demonstrating the anticipated year end market slow down, so we will not post graph depicting it. Instead we have some charts below that will show you just how cyclical real estate is within a year's time. These cycles are evident in short term charts as well a long term charts where a full cycle will run somewhere around 17 years.
This chart below depicts sale activity over a 5 year period. Year after year the market bottoms around December/January, only to pick up and accelerate into Summer, meanders a bit and then slows down into year end. This pattern has been repeating year after year. Until this trend changes, we assume it will continue.
This next chart show the number of Home Listings in the market for the last 5 years. Notice the plunge at the end of 2010 and subsequent "recovery" around July 2013. One, image a business where activity drops by about 60%? Two, it is obvious that the level of activity has little to no effect on the overall cycle. Needless to say, the housing inventory is a long, long way from reaching the levels of just a few years ago.
Not convinced yet? Below we provide two charts from Google Trends. The first chart depicts the search patterns for the term Home for Sale. The second chart show the search patterns for the term Real Estate. These charts cover about 10 years in length, and check out how the pattern repeats year after year: low levels of searches at year end, high levels during Summer. This is no coincidence that it correlates to the patterns for actual real estate activity. Why? We believe it's because it is all based on human psychology and "group think." But then again, we are not psychologists, just Realtors. For anyone not aware yet, psychology plays a big roll in real estate, always has and always will, in our opinion. See the charts below'
With what we have shown above we hope you understand how real estate tends to move, and if things slow down in the next 3-4 months, as we think it will, it's all part of the market cycle. With that said, aberrations do occur, and that is why we watch things like a hawk, to understand what is happening in the market and let our clients and readers know what we think.
Hope you enjoyed this months report.
This Tampa Real Estate Report for September 2014 has been brought to you by Mary and David Diaz. Thank you.
Search for any Tampa Bay area home or area here. If you want to know what is happening in your particular neck of the woods, get in touch with us, we would be happy to bring you up to speed. You can reach us by calling/texting Mary at 813-245-9677 or via email at Mary@TampaTodayRealEstate.com.
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