I learned about David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, during a recent class that I took. The instructor put him out as a really smart guy worth listening to. I had never heard of him so I decided to Google him and see what words of wisdom I might come across.
I was really surprised at the really negative stuff out there about him. There are actually blogs devoted to keeping up with his activities and statements. A really negative story here that is summed up in the end:
It's not that Lereah is a bad economist; that's not even his job. Rather, his responsibilities are to use the tools of the economic profession, and apply them to shill for the NAR, a trade organization. After all, as Nutting notes,
..there are two universal truths at the National Association of Realtors: 1) It's always a good time to buy or sell a home; and 2) We've seen the worst of the housing market correction.
It's interesting to go back and look at some predictions that were made and see how they stack up with what actually happened. Of course the housing bubble is a continuing story and no one really knows how it will end up.
I guess the bottom line is to not put too much stock into predictions even if they are given by a very well educated economist. It's still just an opinion.
Statements of David Lereah posted at David Lereah Watch
"We're going to drop significantly, but it's not a balloon bursting," Lereah says. "This is a soft landing for the housing markets." (Business Week May 23rd, 2006)
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"...housing activity will remain healthy for some time to come." - David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, October 28, 2005
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"The continuing shortages of housing inventory are driving the price gains. There is no evidence of bubbles popping." - David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, August 2005
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"We are really on track for a soft landing. There are no balloons popping." - David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, December 2005
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