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Mortgage Rate Update 11-26-14: Trends & Projections

By Jason E. Gordon

Mortgage and Lending with CMG Mortgage, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

November 26, 2014 12:41 AM

We have had a huge batch of economic data released today ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, but so far the reports have had little impact on Mortgage Backed Securities. Durable Orders & Jobless Claims both came in higher than expected, while Personal Income, Chicago PMI, New Home Sales Index, and Consumer Sentiment all came in below expectations.

Compared to Tuesday's closing, the market has opened identical to the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired. To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Wednesday 11-26-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Tuesday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing. Tuesday's IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 24 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Ethical Mortgage Professional in San Diego

The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

Ethical Mortgage Professional in San Diego

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad)

Ethical Mortgage Professional in San Diego

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Ethical Mortgage Professional in San Diego

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA - Month Dec

Cpn 3.0 Chg 0.0938 Bid 100.78125

Cpn 3.5 Chg 0.0781 Bid 104.01563

Cpn 4.0 Chg 0.0313 Bid 106.64063

Treasury

UST 5 YR Chg 0.0938 Bid 99.71094 Yield 1.5600

UST 10 YR Chg 0.1250 Bid 100.04688 Yield 2.2450

UST 30 YR Chg 0.2969 Bid 101.01563 Yield 2.9490

Currency

Euro Bid 1.2492 Chg 0.0016

Pound Bid 1.5778 Chg 0.0072

Yen Bid 117.720 Chg -0.260

Light Crude

Last 73.95

Key Economic Data:

Mortgage Market

Index: 374.5, Last 391.3.

MBA Purchase: Actual 171.2, Last 179.8.

Refinance: Actual 1549.0, Last 1604.6.

MBA 30-Yr Rate: Actual 4.15%, Last 4.18%.

PCE for Oct

Personal Consump Real: Actual 0.2%, Last -0.2%.

Personal Income: Actual 0.2%, Consensus 0.4%, Last 0.2%.

Consumption Adjusted: Actual 0.2%, Consensus 0.3%, Last 0.1%.

Core PCE Price Index MM: Actual 0.2%, Consensus 0.2%, Last 0.1%.

Core PCE Price Index YY: Actual 1.6%, Last 1.5%.

PCE Price Index MM: Actual 0.1%, Last 0.1%.

PCE Price Index YY: Actual 1.4%, Last 1.4%.

Durable Goods for Oct

Index: Actual 0.4%, Consensus -0.6%, Last -1.1%.

Ex-transport: Actual -0.9%, Consensus 0.5%, Last -0.1%.

Ex-Defense: Actual -0.6%, Consensus 0.3%, last -1.4%.

Ex-Air: Actual -1.3%, Consensus 1.0%, last -1.6%.

Unemployment

Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 313k, Consensus 288k, Last 291k.

Jobless Claims 4-wk avg: Actual 294.00k, Last 287.50k.

Continued Jobless Claims: Actual 2.316m, Consensus 2.350m, Last 2.330m.

6:45: Chicago PMI for Nov: Consensus 83.0i, Last 66.2i.

6:55: Univ of Michigan Final for Nov

Sentiment: Consensus 90.0i, Last 89.4i.

Condition: Consensus 102.0i, Last 103.0i.

Expectation: Consensus 80.8i, Last 80.6i.

1Yr Inflation: Last 2.6%.

5-Yr Inflation: Last 2.6%.

7:00: Pending New Home Sales for Oct: Consensus 0.472m, Last 0.467m.

7:00: ECRI Weekly Index: Last 133.2.

Advice:

More Americans than forecast filed for unemployment benefits last week, indicating the improvement in the labor market has stalled. Jobless claims increased by 21,000 to 313,000 in the week ended Nov. 22, the highest since early September, from 292,000 in the prior period, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. It would take several weeks of sustained elevated readings to confirm the labor market has taken a step back. The median forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg

called for a decline to 288,000, with estimates ranging from 280,000 to 300,000. The prior weeks claims were revised from an initial reading of 291,000. There was nothing unusual in the data and no states were estimated last week, a Labor Department spokesman said as the report was released to the press. The four-week average of claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, climbed to 294,000 from 287,750 the week before. The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits

dropped by 17,000 to 2.32 million in the week ended Nov. 15, the fewest since December 2000. In that same period, the unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits fell to 1.7 percent, the lowest since November 2000, from 1.8 percent the prior week, the report showed. Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and typically decrease before job growth can accelerate.

My position on MBS:

Short term Stays Long.

Long term Changes to Long.

Being that this is a short week, we might see some unexpected volatility in the market.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.

Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.

Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out

Long term = 30+ days out

Trusted Industry Advisor

Jason Gordon Mortgage - www.GordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

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