I am no economist, but I do believe there are direct correlations between different phenomena. For instance, if I eat a butterscotch sundae, a slice of divine chocolate fudge cake, and a fabulous cheeseburger with cheese oozing out of every crevice – every day, guess what? I will gain weight. It’s a no brainer. And if I eat nothing, I will lose weight.
So too is the direct relationship between the job market and the immigration statistics here in Tucson.
There is much hoopla being made that the statistics for illegal immigration are down. My sense is that it has to do with the economy. Thousands of homes in border states used labor from Mexico, which in essence, made homes here less expensive than homes in the northeast or northwest.
I knew a fellow who was from Mexico, an illegal, who drove a heavy machine on a subdivision plat, and he was so happy when his pay was raised to $10 an hour.
We may scoff at that, but what really is $10 an hour under the table compared to legal wages? We are first going to take 15.3% out for Social Security and Medicare—so that would be $1.53; we are going to take out for Worker’s Compensation at $1.25 per $100 of payroll for a clerk – we will take out for income tax @ 10% or 1.00 an hour and none of this includes benefits; insurance, items the employer may provide such as steel toed boots, physicals for driver’s licenses, so now we are up to $13.00-$14.00 an hour and it doesn’t include what needs to be paid in union dues.
When people begin to talk about the decrease in people coming to the United States and government policy, especially in Arizona, I would urge them strongly to look at the economics. People did not stop coming over the border because they didn’t want to come to the United States, they stopped coming because there was no work. This is why there were so fewer people who died in the desert this year, and this is why the Border Patrol captured fewer people.
People went back when they could, but I guarantee if the housing market once again picks up steam, there will be many people working at $10 a hour and who are grateful.
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