On March 28, 2008, five Realtor bloggers from across Virginia, including myself, had the priviledge of having lunch and a candid conversation with Dr. Lawrence Yun, NAR's Chief Economist. The lunch was put together by Scott Brunner, CEO of the Virginia Association of Realtors (VAR). Those in attendance included Jim Duncan, Daniel Rothamel, Scott Rogers, Matthew Rathbun (all Realtor bloggers), as well as Ben Martin, Director of Communications and New Media at VAR and Scott Brunner.
This was the first time Dr. Lawrence Yun had met with any Realtor bloggers from anywhere in the country face-to-face since taking over as NAR's Chief Economist. Because it was the first time, none of us, including Dr. Yun, knew what to expect or how it would go.
Each of us had our own set of questions to ask Dr. Yun and had our own perspective of how the meeting went. Here are my questions and perspective, but make sure to get everyone else's perspective by reading their posts (links below).
The questions and concerns at the top of my list were,
- Was he being told what to say or skew the numbers to make things rosier than they really were as seemed to be the case with his predecessors?
- What was his take on national statistics and forecasts versus local market statistics and forecasts?
- Was Dr. Yun was in fact his own person within the position of NAR's Chief Economist or just a robot controlled by NAR?
When asked about how he goes about making his forecasts, Dr. Yun said that the team of 10 economists he has on staff gather the data and then he personally analyzes it and interprets that data to come to a conclusion and forecast. He said that the most important part of the process is data integrity.
I asked him about the accuracy of his forecasts and how he felt about consumers and Realtors constantly judging his accuracy. Dr. Yun responded by immediately admitting he's had to make revisions to some of his forecasts since taking over. He said that he does his best based on his expertise and the data at the time.
Dr. Yun also noted that other economists that are held in the same, if not higher regards than him have all made revisions to their forecasts as well. He pointed out that forecasting is not an exact science nor can you achieve perfect results regardless of who you are. He also mentioned that making forecasts is a necessity by organizations that are seen as experts in their fields.
When asked about his take on national versus local market statistics and forecasts, Dr. Yun pointed out that his are national and broad and should not be used as the only set of data when looking at your local market. We talked about how different regions and the various local markets within those regions are all unique. We discussed how even two subdivisions within the same small town can have considerably different market conditions (just look at Sterling Park and Cascades in Sterling, VA).
This last topic led to another discussion...one about how a Realtor who knows his/her market well and understands the data, statistics and conditions on a local level is far more valuable to consumers than general national statistics from NAR. (Hmmm...this goes along with NAR's new ad campaign. Wonder who contributed to coming up with that?)
As far as whether he's his own person or just a robot...it seems that he is in fact his own person and not a droid. Does he have to battle politics/pressure on a regular basis? I would be shocked if he didn't. But he's made it clear that he's trying to restore the reputation of the office of Chief Economist at NAR, as well as that of Realtors in general. Talk about a challenge.
Thank you again to Dr. Lawrence Yun, Scott Brunner, Ben Martin and everyone else in attendance for putting this together and making it a great experience.
***Here are the posts from the other attendees and their reactions and take on the meeting:
"Without forecasts, we don't look credible" - Jim Duncan, REALCentralVA
"Dr. Lawrence Yun Is A Zebra" - Daniel Rothamel, RealEstateZebra
"Dr. Lawrence Yun...Drive, Independent and Perceptive" - Scott Rogers at VAR buzz
"No Pandering, Promises or Pretense...The Real Lawrence Yun" - Matthew Rathbun at agentgenius
-Danilo
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