Was the Bubble Avoidable?

Homer Hoyt Bubble QuoteFor those who have been watching the real estate cycle there were some signs.

Sure... simple little cracks that show up when there is any expansion.

Ask a real estate agent for an opinion and you might here any of these explanations:

  • Widespread availability of easy credit
  • Consumers expanding use of credit
  • Wild expansion of subprime lending
  • Over-optimism among builders
  • Entry of the casual investor/speculator

For an eye-opening view of the current crisis, sometimes it's advantageous to look at this under a different microscope. Such is the opportunity in this great article, "Property Bubble Leads to Crash Landing" by Bryan Cavanagh of "The Age" in Australia.

His claim is that U.S. Banks and the Federal Reserve failed the Risk Management test. This assertion he makes- in hopes that the same fix-up strategy could be avoided in Australia.

His assessment would include the following:

  • Real Estate markets lead the economy
  • Borrowing against property is a precursor to problems
  • After-the-fact, "experts" create a "business cycles" excuse
  • Everyone blames banks and borrowers

The solution? Practice better business management and learn to spot the precursors... among them- anything related to housing bubbles. The article sites Homer Hoyt, a 19th century land economist, who proclaimed that "A country cannot go into recession unless there has been a real estate bubble."

If this be the case, the Fed should have been taking a closer look.

In a 60 Minutes interview Alan Greenspan admitted that the housing bubble had caught him off guard. As opposed to housing, the Fed under Greenspan spent a great deal of time trying to balance the effects of expansion vs. inflation among the broader economy.

If such perils were known in the 19th century, let's hope our 21st century experts can spot the warning signs.

 
Post is included in group: International Real Estate
Post is included in group: International Real Estate
Post is included in group: Investment Intelligence

7 Comments on Was the Bubble Avoidable?

Very thoughtful post.  Much food for thought.  

Since it is the home owner who is hurting the most now, the lesses here to be learned is that the home owner should not use their home equity for a cash window.  Imagine the picture now if home owners had just kept a "pat hand" when property values skyrocketed.

They could easily ride this out.  As it is. . . .

04/07/2008 04:09 PM by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate


I agree Lenn. Two lessons I hope the consumer learns are these: 1) learn to budget. 2) Learn to save.

04/07/2008 04:26 PM by Chuck Willman, Arizona Realtor®, ABR, TRC (Gentry Realty & Investments)


Not only consumers are to blame, but the banks who gave the loan and the appraiser who backed it. How is business in AZ this first quarter?

04/07/2008 06:51 PM by Christopher Watters, Realtor - Greater Austin Texas Area (Texas Ranch & Home Realty)


Christopher- yes... the banks were making some loans without appraisals. And business in Arizona- it's going really well. Some areas are down while a few areas are performing better than a few months ago.

04/07/2008 07:18 PM by Chuck Willman, Arizona Realtor®, ABR, TRC (Gentry Realty & Investments)


Chuck- It would be nice if consumers would actually learn to save and live on a budget, but that is not the "American Way" is it?  It is so sad with so many of these people losing their homes, I guess they didn't really realize the implications of getting in over your head or that the interest rates would be changing. Maybe too many live in the present, and don't think about what the future may bring? 

04/07/2008 07:19 PM by Owensboro KY Real Estate Specialist Vickie McCartney Broker,ASP,ABR (Home Realty GMAC Real Estate Owensboro Kentucky)


Vickie- I realized I was being un-American :-) I think we've been lulled into believing some things are permanent... it's probably good for us all to have this wake-up call.

04/07/2008 07:21 PM by Chuck Willman, Arizona Realtor®, ABR, TRC (Gentry Realty & Investments)


It seems like the more credit is given freely, the more it is abused--look at our credit card debt.  One interesting thing to watch will be the consumer credit situation in the U.K. their consumer debt load is higher per capita than ours!

04/07/2008 10:40 PM by Kent Simpson REALTOR®, CNS®, AHS®, RECS® (with The Pepper Group™ Diversified Real Estate)


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Real Estate Agent: Chuck Willman, Arizona Realtor®, ABR, TRC (Gentry Realty & Investments)
Chuck Willman, Arizona Realtor®, ABR, TRC
Phoenix, AZ
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