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Do we ever really learn?

By
Real Estate Agent with Long Realty West Valley AZ RE Lic. #SA560004000

I just turned 40 last December.  So I feel I have some perspective to speak about history,  at least in my lifetime, and what is going on in our country now.

I am constantly amazed that we as a nation repeat the same mistakes over and over again and then act stunned when we have a meltdown like we are currently experiencing.  And of course the media and pundits act like it's the first time something like this has ever happened.  Let me retrace some of the boom and busts that have just occured in my 40 years of life in the U.S. of A (and notice the 7-8 year cyclical pattern of these moments):

2007-08 - Housing crises, financial meltdown.  Greed got a hold of us once again, people bought, bought, bought, thinking there would be no end to the good times;

2000-01 - Dot com bust.  Greed again.  "Investors" bought everything with a dot com attached to it no matter how hair brained the idea was.  Does anyone but me remember the predictions of a Dow at 35,000 by the year 2005? Or everyone quitting their day jobs to become "day traders"?  Ah yes, those were the days;

1994 - Asian currency crisis.  Was supposed to bring down the whole global economy.  But just like SARS and Avian Flu Virus it didn't pack quite the punch everyone had anticipated;

1988-89 - The S&L crisis.  Our situation today makes this whole mess look like child's play.  Oh how I wish we had a problem that small right now;

1980-82 - Iran hostage crisis sent oil prices through the roof. Coupled with "stagflation" our economy went into a deep recession with interest rates in the high teens and inflation and unemployment hovering around 10%.  Kind of makes every recession since look kind of wimpy.

1974-75 - OPEC oil embargo again sends oil prices through the roof.  74-75 Bear market on Wall St. one of worst in recorded history.  Makes everyone wonder if we'll ever regain our footing.

1967 - I was born.

My point is, we've had crises before, we'll have them again.  Unless, people learn from their mistakes.  But as exemplified by my timeline above, I wonder if we will.

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www.ArizonaPremiereLiving.com

Comments (7)

John Walters
Frank Rubi Real Estate - Slidell, LA
Licensed in Louisiana
The big problem is I don't think enough people learn.  Seems they also want the federal government to fix everything like the big daddy.
Apr 09, 2008 11:55 AM
David & Lisa Webber
RE/MAX Executive - Crofton, MD
www.webberteam.com
Interesting timeline.  You know it will be something else a few years from now!
Apr 09, 2008 11:59 AM
Ernie & Barb Suto
Century 21 Preferred Realty - Pompton Lakes, NJ
You have great insight for someone who just turned 40, I have been around much longer. You are 100 % correct, investors ruined the market and they will do it again with the foreclosures. The only people that can capitalize on the foreclosure misfortune are the people with money.  It is a win-win.... There is too much inventory right now, we need to thin it out a little.  So, the investors ruined that market, the government is ruining the rest!  We have entirely too much interest and holdings outside of this country.
Apr 09, 2008 12:10 PM
Ken Tracy
Coldwell Banker Residential - Naperville, IL
Helping clients buy and sell since 2005

Hi Jerry.  Great post.  I am much younger than you, yet you have much better hair.  What gives?

I was born in 1968.

Ken

Apr 09, 2008 12:19 PM
Mara Hawks
First Realty Auburn - Auburn, AL
Inactive-2012 REALTOR - Homes for Sale Auburn Real Estate, AL
evolution takes such tiny steps... the primal stories never change, only the characters playing them out... I think it's the cycle of life...and Life is like a River...moving every moment, but never changing at all.
Apr 09, 2008 12:19 PM
Christopher Bonta
The Bean Group - Londonderry, NH
Realtor, Integrity and Honesty
I think our country suffers from some form of Alzheimer's, because as your time line clearly shows we do always repeat the cycles of boom and bust.
Apr 10, 2008 04:52 AM
Jonathan Fleming
Re/Max Accord - Oakland, CA
Brillant article, keep educating us! A lot of people should read this article! Life is funny, today the newspaper predicted big quake to hit California in 50 years, wow big deal! The media is dedicated to hurting the minds of people versus letting people live!  I don't watch the news, I'd rather good things like this in your article...good for you, great read!
Apr 14, 2008 07:01 PM