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Circles and Smileys and Frownies: explaining housing prices

By
Services for Real Estate Pros with Zillow


 

 

At Zillow, we crunch a lot of data about housing prices. Every day we “re-Zestimate” about 70 million home values, almost every house in the country. We roll up all that data to create a “Zillow Housing Index” or Zindex, which is the median Zestimate for any geography. We then publish all of this data for the press and for real estate junkies. Sometimes all of the data can be a bit overwhelming. So let me break it down for you. Here’s the note that I drew a few weeks ago while I was on a media tour talking about home prices. (Hence the "Empire Hotel" letterhead -- it's in New York, and it's a very nice hotel which isn't very expensive for New York, in case you're curious.)

So what does this mean? It says that if you have an expensive house close to the city center, you’re doing ok. If you have a less expensive close to a city center, your house value is declining. If you have a less expensive house out in the burbs, you’re doing OK. But if you have an expensive house far from a city center you’re really in trouble. There, I’ve just saved you hours and hours of pouring through our data.

If you want a much more in-depth analysis, check out Dr Stan Humphries' interviewed here on Marketwatch radio.

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Spencer Rascoff
Zillow - Seattle, WA

Michael -- yes, LA is the perfect example for this. There's just no reason that houses 1-2 hours from the city center should be worth as much as they were worth 1-2 years ago. (Of course, in LA it's not clear where the city center is.) But if you think of perhaps Beverly Hills as the center of LA, or maybe downtown LA as the center, it becomes more clear: unremarkable houses as far away as Westlake Village had appreciated up above $1 million, which is crazy. When the credit bubble burst in summer 07, the speculators went away. As a result, there just isn't enough real demand for housing at that price point that far away from the city. On the other hand, there is still plenty of demand for expensive houses in Westwood, Beverly Hills, Bel-Air, Cheviot Hills, etc.

 

Apr 10, 2008 02:42 PM
Dan Edwards 425-276-7008
Keller Williams Realty - Bellevue - Bellevue, WA

Awsome hopefully my clients will take the doodle version of my CMA!!!! :)

 

Apr 10, 2008 02:48 PM
Spencer Rascoff
Zillow - Seattle, WA

Dan, LOL.

Oh, the hundreds of hours and millions of CPUs that went into the creation of that little doodle!!!

 

Apr 10, 2008 02:52 PM
The Real Estate Group Luxury Home Specialists
Keller Williams Realty - Studio City, CA

City Center in the Sanfernando valley tends to be ventura Blvd, your doodle pretty much represents the whole scenaro there, south of blvd and with in a couple blocks still strong and expensive multiple offers on good properties, the further N you get twords van nuys, northridge, west hills the harder the higher priced homes were hit

Apr 10, 2008 03:01 PM
Joan Whitebook
BHG The Masiello Group - Nashua, NH
Consumer Focused Real Estate Services
Very intersting -- I like the simple straightforward analysis.
Apr 10, 2008 03:26 PM
Michelle DeRepentigny
Success Realty - Athens, GA
Broker Athens, GA
Spener, I did spend a minute trying to figure out what the graphic was, the letterhead was really throwing me off.  I agree with your abbreviated analysis.  This is the first time in years I've had estate quality sellers calling me to sell due to finanial difficulties, mostly caused by ARMS and employment changes.
Apr 10, 2008 03:41 PM
Robert Machado
HomePointe Property Management, CRMC - Sacramento, CA
CPM MPM - Property Manager and Property Management

High gas prices will have a big effect on peoples willingness to commute long distances.

Apr 10, 2008 06:02 PM
Gabriele Campbell
D F Campbell Ventures Group Inc. - Saint Albert, AB
ASP, CID
That is the best formula I've come across yet!
Apr 11, 2008 01:49 AM
Joe Virnig
RE/MAX Gold Coast REALTORS, Ventura County, California - Ventura, CA
No Ordinary Joe

No technology will ever beat the napkin or legal pad (or hotel stationery) for an impromtu presentation.

Apr 11, 2008 02:34 AM
Ruthmarie Hicks
Keller Williams NY Realty - 120 Bloomingdale Road #101, White Plains NY 10605 - White Plains, NY
I don't know how well this works for satellite cities like White Plains and New Rochelle.  It does in one sense, but we have neighborhoods that change from city to burbs in almost one block. At the bottom of the hill its cityscape - at the top- residential and its all over the place.  Although the essence of what you are saying makes sense - you have to be very careful of the geography. 
Apr 11, 2008 04:03 AM
Susan Milner
Florida Future Realty, Inc. - Cape Coral, FL
Cape Coral Real Estate Broker, FloridaFutureAgents
Great graphics :) Love them.
Apr 11, 2008 04:11 AM
Jason Crouch
Austin Texas Homes, LLC - Austin, TX
Broker - Austin Texas Real Estate (512-796-7653)

I don't think it's a good idea to characterize real estate in this manner, since we all know that local markets are widely diverse.  It's not really possible to sum up something this complicated on a napkin, although I appreciate some of the humor behind your post.  I spend a good deal of time trying to explain to local buyers and sellers that there is no "national real estate market", and this flies in the face of that.

Sorry to be the lone dissenting voice on this, but it seems a little cavalier to me.

Apr 11, 2008 04:20 AM
Bob & Carolin Benjamin
Benjamin Realty LLC - Gold Canyon, AZ
East Phoenix Arizona Homes
Interesting analysis. Thanks for sharing it with us. Always interested in a new twist on things.
Apr 11, 2008 08:32 AM
Anonymous
Anonymous

I have tried to work with Zillow, but no matter how many times my clients mention what they can get for their house according to your calculations, they are always HIGHER than what they really sell for according to the market.  This site (to me) is not valuable.

Apr 11, 2008 09:22 AM
#16
Valerie Osterhoudt
Johnson Real Estate, Inc. - Cromwell, CT
ABR, Cromwell, CT Real Estate ~ 860.883.8889

I have tried to work with Zillow, but no matter how many times my clients mention what they can get for their house according to your calculations, they are always HIGHER than what they really sell for according to the market.  This site (to me) is not valuable.

Apr 11, 2008 09:24 AM
Michael Eisenberg
eXp Realty - Bellingham, WA
Bellingham Real Estate Guy
I tend to agree with Jason on this one, your explanation can be way off the marZestimates can be way off the mark in some markets just as your zestimates are.  Nonetheless they are entertainig and people will still be looking at them 
Apr 11, 2008 12:38 PM
Christy Powers
Keller Williams Coastal Area Partners - Pooler, GA
Pooler, Savannah Real Estate Agent
LOL...I love the doodle. I am always writing or doodling. Someone needs to make those frowny faces smile. I don't like frowns.
Apr 11, 2008 01:27 PM
Sasha Miletic - Windsor Real Estate
RE/MAX Preferred Realty Ltd. - Windsor, ON

Hi Spencer the analysis what you did is straight forward. Let me try with zillow, some do have bad experince with Zillow???

Best - Sash

PS: FREE blog traffic strategy video...click here

Apr 11, 2008 03:37 PM
Ruthmarie Hicks
Keller Williams NY Realty - 120 Bloomingdale Road #101, White Plains NY 10605 - White Plains, NY

I'm with Jason on this one.  The trouble is that each area is so unique it is nearly impossible to generalize.  At the risk of being tacky I am going to sight my own blog....where I showed that within a 2.5 mile distance we go from suburban/parkland with large lots and lots of open space to the biggest high risers between NYC and Albany. The skyscraper is in the downtown of our city, yet I live in an area where deer roam the streets at night, we've had coyotes from the park as well as hawks  and other wildlife. The main park is about 1 mile away from me.  The point is - you have to be VERY careful about generalizing. 

This hawk tells you why real estate is truly a LOCAL business

If you want the link taken out - feel free to contact me. 

Apr 11, 2008 04:45 PM
Frank Jewett
tech4REpros - San Jose, CA
Spencer, I've got a free tip from Santa Clara County.  Zestimates here tend to overrate the value of the structure relative to the value of the land, so a 3,000 SF house on a 4,000 SF lot will be too high while a 1,000 SF house on an 8,000 SF lot will be too low.  I'm guessing one of these days you'll be discussing how LTI (Land to Improvements) ratios vary from area to area.  In my neighborhood, an 8,000 SF vacant lot might well sell for more than an 8,000 SF lot with a 1,000 SF house due to "scraping" costs, so in some cases undesirable improvements could actually subtract from the value of expensive land.
Apr 11, 2008 07:13 PM