For a man who has been dramatically wrong for the past three years, you have to admire the chutzpah of Dr William Gray from Colorado State University's forecast team - because he has done it again and again he has predicted a dramatically above normal Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Now I guess I don't really have a problem with an old man continuing to try and be a fortune teller - except that it has an effect on all kinds of things - not least of which is insurance premiums.
The insurance industry has long used his predictions as part of their calculations in Florida and they continue to do that even though he has been so wrong.
The team's forecast now anticipates 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Eight of the storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those eight, four are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.
"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State hurricane forecast team. "We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons."
Current conditions in the Atlantic basin are quite favorable for an active hurricane season, the team stated.
The team will issue seasonal updates of its 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on June 3, Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 1. The August, September and October forecasts will include separate forecasts for each of those months.
Tropical Cyclone Forecast for 2008
(1950-2000 Averages in parenthesis)
- Named Storms 15 (9.6)*
- Named Storm Days 80 (49.1)
- Hurricanes 8 (5.9)
- Hurricane Days 40 (24.5)
- Intense Hurricanes 4 (2.3)
- Intense Hurricane Days 9 (5.0)
- Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 160 (100%)
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(Copyright © 2008 By Simon L Conway All Rights Reserved.)
Please give me a call if you have questions about the Central Florida real estate market. You can reach me on 407 876 8200. Also visit my web site at http://www.simonconway.net/ or http://www.move2orlando.net/
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Simon, people here in New Orleans are already getting nervous with just the mention of rising water in the Mississippi River. I am hopeful of a peaceful hurricane season.